Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

[snowlover91]

The NAM is by far the strongest of the models with consolidating the 5H energy and then quickly shears it out as it heads east. The LP track is south of the Euro/FV3 FWIW but at this stage I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM. Here's the forecast GIF showing the energy shearing out as it moves east.

 

[Rain Cold]

The NAM is by far the strongest of the models with consolidating the 5H energy and then quickly shears it out as it heads east. The LP track is south of the Euro/FV3 FWIW but at this stage I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM. Here's the forecast GIF showing the energy shearing out as it moves east.
View attachment 10466

Looking sort of like a typical Miller B precip hole over the Piedmont type of a deal.

 

[snowlover91]

Looking sort of like a typical Miller B precip hole over the Piedmont type of a deal.

NAM usually is a bit too dry in the extended range though, it should adjust upward with qpf as it gets in range.

 

[snowlover91]

ICON is out, LP track just north of the FL panhandle and then quickly transfers off the NC coast. CAD temps are a little warmer this run, less ice.

 

[deltadog03]

Agreed. I've pretty much lost interest in this one so now it's time to sit back and see how it plays out.

Me too

 

[snowlover91]

ICON has some nice backside snows as the trailing energy is a bit stronger.

 

[snowlover91]

ICON snowfall map. Some nice light snows on the backside for a lot of areas in NC.

 

[Tarheel1]

ICON is out, LP track just north of the FL panhandle and then quickly transfers off the NC coast. CAD temps are a little warmer this run, less ice.
View attachment 10467

That’s an ugly run! No ice or snow for anyone in NC!

 

[snowlover91]

That’s an ugly run! No ice or snow for anyone in NC!

See map above. It has some snow in NC and does have some ice as well though not as extensive with the ice as the previous run.

 

[accu35]

That’s an ugly run! No ice or snow for anyone in NC!

Icon is not showing ice map, just snow. Temps are gonna support ice with icon for NC/ northeast GA

 

[Brick Tamland]

Nice increase on the ICON. A couple of inches here.

 

[Mitch West]

Yes, that is what I am hanging my hat on.

Not at this range it didn't, especially for areas to the South.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

The ICON confines the freezing rain to the NW CAD areas this run.

In other news, the RAH discussion mentioned mostly snow in the Triad. Not sure I buy that, but I’d take it.

 

[Metwannabe]

The ICON confines the freezing rain to the NW CAD areas this run.

In other news, the RAH discussion mentioned mostly snow in the Triad. Not sure I buy that, but I’d take it.

I saw that, they were actually fairly generous in the potential amounts imo and less concerned about zr.... I have a feeling that tune will change unfortunately.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Models coming together nicely for an I-85 special. Looks to be a messy sloppy weekend for I-85 and NW!

 

[snowlover91]

Not sure where RAH is getting their snow p-type from for the Triad. No model other than the UK really supports that scenario, this is going to mainly be an ice storm as it stands right now for the CAD regions and cold rain elsewhere.

 

[1300m]

Not sure where RAH is getting their snow p-type from for the Triad. No model other than the UK really supports that scenario, this is going to mainly be an ice storm as it stands right now for the CAD regions and cold rain elsewhere.

Looking at who wrote the discussion, I'm not surprised. Not a winter weather expert by any stretch.

 

[Rain Cold]

Looking at who wrote the discussion, I'm not surprised. Not a winter weather expert by any stretch.

That’s weird, because all you have to be able to do is to look at the colors on the Tropical Tidbit maps.

 

[1300m]

That’s weird, because all you have to be able to do is to look at the colors on the Tropical Tidbit maps.

As long as you aren't looking at the CMC

 

[Rain Cold]

As long as you aren't looking at the CMC

True. Even it has a lot of pink.