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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Kinda sucks when the rest of the SE gets nothing, thread is dead in between those 6 hour intervals
 
snowlover91 said:
ICON definitely came in colder. It also quickly shears the energy out as it heads east.
View attachment 10500
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Looks like nam. Ns stream wave is gonna shear out and press is to strong and flat out in front, seems to be the theme. Makes sense and will be telling if other models continue this trend. This has more potential to underperform qpf wise in my opinion compared to what weve expierenced past 6 months. Id set .5 qpf as the high end bar.
 
GFS looks South. Low around ATL. Precip outcome looks same! Looks weak
 
Would be good/bad if precip underperformed, less precipitation means less ice but means lighter rates which will freeze easier, also with lighter precip heat transfer from raindrops would not be as strong so temps would likely stay below freezing
 
Jimmy, NAM jackpots us!! Winner7578446B-4E5A-4DFA-872C-132C4B753F06.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Looks like nam. Ns stream wave is gonna shear out and press is to strong and flat out in front, seems to be the theme. Makes sense and will be telling if other models continue this trend. This has more potential to underperform qpf wise in my opinion compared to what weve expierenced past 6 months. Id set .5 qpf as the high end bar.
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Yeah with the way it shears out it almost is like one big light overrunning event more than anything. ICON also shows backside snow.
1547092627849.png
 
I could see the backside snow with this storm acting similar to the backside snow we saw after the dec 8-9 storm, models will probably lose it tomorrow than bring it back during the onset/middle of the storm
 
Cmc amps and keeps primary to strong while all other guidance fizzles it,then it still keeps the primary going after the coastal revs up. You can see thats not supose to happen at h5. 0z runs so far has nam, gfs icon all agree the primary shears out west to east and the runing into the mtns,cad dome and press from the north is gonna chew this thing up. Whats left energy wise will be on life suport by time it transfers or reforms off SC coast. Looking like euro had right idea from earlier this week and lets lead wave dampen out and we get light moisture over cad as passes just to the south of NC and heads off coast ots.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The fv3 should be the only model any of us ever use again for snow. It stood tall all by itself for over a day with this solution. The December storm and now this one it has absolutely reigned as king. No questions at all. It has a slight cold bias but other tHan that it’s rather incredible.

Fv3 long range. Nam short range. Those are all you need.
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I'll just know to deduct 98% of the snow accumulation it shows for me from now on and then I will be good to go, LOL!;)
 
1300m said:
Actually...the 558dm line is in almost the identical location on both (running through TX), and the heights out ahead of the RGEM to the east are higher. The trough is also already neutral tilt on the RGEM ensemble mean. This all actually is arguing for an even more amped and further north solution than the FV3...
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Also to follow up on this, the RGEM IS now the most amped solution at H5 (actually almost identical to 3km NAM), which was pretty obvious it was going to be on the 12z runs.

rgem_z500_vort_us_49.png


nam3km_z500_vort_us_49.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_9.png
 
Gefs tad more amped, good news for cad areas in nc if you don’t want ice
 
Euro matches perfect with the EPS. takes Low from MS/Arkansas state line to off NC Coast:

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