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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

The NAM is by far the strongest of the models with consolidating the 5H energy and then quickly shears it out as it heads east. The LP track is south of the Euro/FV3 FWIW but at this stage I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM. Here's the forecast GIF showing the energy shearing out as it moves east.
namconus_z500_vort_us_fh66-84.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
The NAM is by far the strongest of the models with consolidating the 5H energy and then quickly shears it out as it heads east. The LP track is south of the Euro/FV3 FWIW but at this stage I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM. Here's the forecast GIF showing the energy shearing out as it moves east.
View attachment 10466
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Looking sort of like a typical Miller B precip hole over the Piedmont type of a deal.
 
ICON is out, LP track just north of the FL panhandle and then quickly transfers off the NC coast. CAD temps are a little warmer this run, less ice.
1547068915975.png
 
The ICON confines the freezing rain to the NW CAD areas this run.

In other news, the RAH discussion mentioned mostly snow in the Triad. Not sure I buy that, but I’d take it.
 
Poimen said:
The ICON confines the freezing rain to the NW CAD areas this run.

In other news, the RAH discussion mentioned mostly snow in the Triad. Not sure I buy that, but I’d take it.
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I saw that, they were actually fairly generous in the potential amounts imo and less concerned about zr.... I have a feeling that tune will change unfortunately.
 
Not sure where RAH is getting their snow p-type from for the Triad. No model other than the UK really supports that scenario, this is going to mainly be an ice storm as it stands right now for the CAD regions and cold rain elsewhere.
 
snowlover91 said:
Not sure where RAH is getting their snow p-type from for the Triad. No model other than the UK really supports that scenario, this is going to mainly be an ice storm as it stands right now for the CAD regions and cold rain elsewhere.
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Looking at who wrote the discussion, I'm not surprised. Not a winter weather expert by any stretch.
 
1300m said:
Looking at who wrote the discussion, I'm not surprised. Not a winter weather expert by any stretch.
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That’s weird, because all you have to be able to do is to look at the colors on the Tropical Tidbit maps.
 
Judging from the lack of posts in a busy thread on a busy forum, it’s easy to conclude the 18z GFS sucked. Looking further at the actual model, it does.

While I think there is a chance of the models underestimating the strength of the CAD a tad, I have to agree with 1300m and toss the Canadian eh in favor of some of the other models. If the high were trending south and stronger, I would think differently. But when does anything ever trend south and stronger?
 
Rain Cold said:
Judging from the lack of posts in a busy thread on a busy forum, it’s easy to conclude the 18z GFS sucked. Looking further at the actual model, it does.

While I think there is a chance of the models underestimating the strength of the CAD a tad, I have to agree with 1300m and toss the Canadian eh in favor of some of the other models. If the high were trending south and stronger, I would think differently. But when does anything ever trend south and stronger?
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Last month... lol different scenario I know and not for everyone. But every single model output showed a trace at best and I ended up with 7". So I never fully throw in the towel until that warm snow is falling

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metwannabe said:
Last month... lol different scenario I know and not for everyone. But every single model output showed a trace at best and I ended up with 7". So I never fully throw in the towel until that warm snow is falling

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Yeah, I wouldn’t give up on it yet. But if I had to bet, I’d bet very little outside foothills/mountains/far western NC Piedmont and north from there. Just not seeing the Synoptics in place necessary to drive the big high south.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I wouldn’t give up on it yet. But if I had to bet, I’d bet very little outside foothills/mountains/far western NC Piedmont and north from there. Just not seeing the Synoptics in place necessary to drive the big high south.
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Last month I predicted 3-6" for Wake County when most were going much lower. I'm not a total moron but this one has got a lot of problems, the biggest being a cold air feed.
 
1300m said:
Last month I predicted 3-6" for Wake County when most were going much lower. I'm not a total moron but this one has got a lot of problems, the biggest being a cold air feed.
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Wasn’t the track farther south as well? Nothing about this one is trending favorably right now.
 
1300m said:
Last month I predicted 3-6" for Wake County when most were going much lower. I'm not a total moron but this one has got a lot of problems, the biggest being a cold air feed.
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I think 99.9% of people would agree with you. I just like to wait 48 hours or so before I cancel, just in case...what’s the harm in waiting I guess. This storm has an ample amount of problems and it could have got it done, the surface low on this strung out mess just isn’t working for us. I’ve seen highs over the Great Lakes get it done for Raleigh, so there’s always exceptions. This one is just a tad too north.


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Jon said:
I think 99.9% of people would agree with you. I just like to wait 48 hours or so before I cancel, just in case...what’s the harm in waiting I guess. This storm has an ample amount of problems and it could have got it done, the surface low on this strung out mess just isn’t working for us. I’ve seen highs over the Great Lakes get it done for Raleigh, so there’s always exceptions. This one is just a tad too north.


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No disagreement. Just offering my forecast as of now. Nothing's ever set in stone, but I'm just not seeing any of the trends that I personally think are needed. It's close for sure for many from Raleigh to GSO, but in the end I doubt it'll be more than a nuisance/Advisory level event at worst.
 
18z GEFS continues the north trend. 18z NAM was also north and then split the surface low into two centers (but based on H5 it should have been way north and the 00z run will most likely be further north if it keeps that look).

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_fh90_trend.gif

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_fh78_trend.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks wintry. That the 18z fv-3? Also, how did the precip types from that site pan out with the last one?
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My recollection it was horrible, had frozen precip much further south than what materialized

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