Pattern The Great December Dump

[Jessy89]

I think January and February is gonna be our months for winter weather.


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[Meteorologist1999]

What would we have needed on this run for it to be a crazy snowstorm?

COLD AIR?

 

[KyloG]

Impressive rain amounts being modeled.

 

[Arcc]

Hell if that ridge was a bit further north it could turn into a massive bowling ball and slide SE

That is the thing to watch. See how much the ridge in the west builds.

 

[avlsnow]

We have some agreement between the gfs and euro for some backside snow in the mountains Wednesday morning. If anything it should be a novelty event.

 

[Storm5]

The 12z eps has our late week system further east than the OP roaring up the east coast

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[WxBlue]

Yeah this Euro run is screaming tornado outbreak in the long range over GA & the Carolinas.

Wouldn't mind tracking a tornado outbreak around here. Gives me a reason to go out and chase something.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wouldn't mind tracking a tornado outbreak around here. Gives me a reason to go out and chase something.

You know what they say after lightning in the winter .... 10 days later

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I think January and February is gonna be our months for winter weather.
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I’m in disagreement I don’t think January will be good for most. Don’t know about February yet.

 

[Jessy89]

I’m in disagreement I don’t think January will be good for most. Don’t know about February yet.

What leads you to believe January will be no good.


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[BirdManDoomW]

What leads you to believe January will be no good.
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Mostly same reasons the CPC is going with. Overall warmer and I believe the big rains in December will not continue all winter. I believe it’s gonna get dry around the Gulf of Mexico too.

 

[KyloG]

If anything, January has been are best month for BN temps the past 6 winters.

 

[KyloG]

Can't forget about the JMA. Big phase bomb day 6.

 

[Ollie Williams]

@Webberweather53
Seems that the CFS went poof with that standing wave. Thoughts?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I did a quick scroll and didn’t see not one new snow map.. Because of that, i’m 99% confident the intital threat is dead..next

 

[Mitch West]

GFS not giving up on that storm late next week. Might be minor or quick but something is still there.

 

[KyloG]

I did a quick scroll and didn’t see not one new snow map.. Because of that, i’m 99% confident the intital threat is dead..next

JMA has been right before...I think.

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS

Cuts through central GA, SC, and Eastern NC after this and therefore is too warm to maintain cold enough for frozen precip after this frame

 

[accu35]

There still plenty time for this to either get worse or better. If we were little colder, oh man this would be gold. I'm very interested with this one.

 

[Chazwin]

JMA has been right before...I think.

View attachment 27282View attachment 27283

If my memory is correct the JMA stayed consistent with the January 2016 storm. Other model shifted N/W a few days out and then actually shifted back southeast right up until the event. I remember ending further south than was forecast because I was supposed to get a little front end ice then mostly rain, but ended up with a quick 1/2 inch of snow then about an inch of sleet/freezing rain