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Pattern The Great December Dump

NoSnowATL said:
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Ho Ho Ho


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South-based -NAO?
 
deltadog03 said:
Wow just got a chance to see the 12z euro. What a track. That would be a super awesome snowstorm around many parts of the SE.... if it was cold enough. ?
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This is just beyond depressing. In fact that will be solidly top five on the winter fail scale if it verified.
 

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NoSnowATL said:
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Told ya!


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A tropical forcing flip sometime at the very tail end of Dec or early January is something I've discussed for nearly a month now on multiple occasions, nice to see it potentially coming to fruition.

Nov 18: "Looks like the pattern in that particular winter (1965-66) flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January "


Also looks like a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave is showing up on those EPS VP200 plots. As I noted a few weeks ago, this is one way we can really stir the pot near the holiday season and looks like we're gonna try to do exactly that as the EPO attempts to reverse near the turn of the new year.

"One way I envision that we could really stir the pot sometime around early January or the very end of Dec would be to have a convectively coupled kelvin wave dislodge itself from the Indian Ocean standing wave at the same time a -NPO/-EPO flip occurs"
 
Golf7575 said:
@Webberweather53 ,what would a convectively coupled Kelvin wave do for sensible weather if it happens? Thanks in advance.
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A convectively coupled kelvin wave is effectively a faster moving MJO pulse operating on timescales of a few weeks or so, thus said wave would probably yield us a pattern that somewhat resembles "x" phases of the MJO although this is not always necessarily true because CCKWs may not be as tightly coupled to the extratropical circulation as an MJO event.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A convectively coupled kelvin wave is effectively a faster moving MJO pulse operating on timescales of a few weeks or so, thus said wave would probably yield us a pattern that somewhat resembles "x" phases of the MJO although this is not always necessarily true because CCKWs may not be as tightly coupled to the extratropical circulation as an MJO event.
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I gotcha. Thanks. You seemed intrigued when you noticed that on the eps chart.
 
Charles Ewing on Fox8 says there is a chance of some brief freezing rain on Saturday. I don’t understand why he mentioned that but, okay.


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Guys we gonna have to wait till January. We get a storm just gonna take till January.


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accu35 said:
You promise?
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January or February I should say. But look at history at least for Gsp there’s not many years on record that it hasn’t snowed at least once. I think there was only one. I think that was 2012 I’m not sure someone on here probably knows. But it’s a pretty good bet it snows at least once.


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