• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Jessy89 said:
Is it fair to say this threat basically went away. It’s just not cold enough to snow.
Click to expand...

I think it is more fair to say that it never was more than a low percentage threat and that mainly for NC, and that there still is no more than a low percentage chance for NC with very low at most other places. Discussing something intensely at a wx BB doesn't at all require it to be more than a low threat in the first place. I assume you agree.
 
The 18z GFS run was a close call for NC verbatim w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s. The real big kick to the groin on this run actually comes from northern stream interaction that disrupts and shears the cut-off ULL (as I noted earlier today sometimes occurs w/ phase interaction), hence we basically lose any additional source of in-situ cold air aside from the cold air damming of course.

Leaving our southern stream wave alone & getting a slower/more pronounced 50/50 low are a few of the primary keys we need to get a storm in this setup.

gfs_z500_vort_eus_24.png
 
GaWx said:
I think it is more fair to say that it never was more than a low percentage threat and that mainly for NC, and that there still is no more than a low percentage chance for NC with very low at most other places. Discussing something intensely at a wx BB doesn't at all require it to be more than a low threat in the first place. I assume you agree.
Click to expand...
discussing (and studying) is one thing ... obsessing is quite another ... o_O
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 18z GFS run was a close call for NC verbatim w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s. The real big kick to the groin on this run actually comes from northern stream interaction that disrupts and shears the cut-off ULL (as I noted earlier today sometimes occurs w/ phase interaction), hence we basically lose any additional source of in-situ cold air aside from the cold air damming of course.

View attachment 28175
Click to expand...

yeah, if this run had the same amount of blocking it did last run around the GLs with less of a weakness, it probably would of been golden
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah, if this run had the same amount of blocking it did last run around the GLs with less of a weakness, it probably would of been golden
Click to expand...

We really need this Atlantic Canada trough to pump the breaks a bit, took a baby step in that direction here but yeah too little too late in this instance.

In a perfect world, I'd like to have the s/w already over the southern plains by the time this trough leaves the coast of Maine.

Might be asking for too much

gfs_z500a_namer_fh96_trend (1).gif
 
I think right now look at snow as a bonus and enjoy seasonal to slightly above normal temps we’ve been dealing with and will continue to deal with, so much better than torching, and this just proves that a colder monthly average doesn’t exactly mean more snowy, past 2 years have proved that wrong somewhere in the SE
 
Webberweather53 said:
Milder overnight low temperatures have been really kicking our butt and are the primary of the reason why we're running above normal for the 9th December in a row.

View attachment 28189

Daily highs are actually at or below normal thanks in large part to the plethora of CAD events we've seen this month.


View attachment 28188
Click to expand...
I believe I see a slither of BN night and day up in the north central/northeast section of NC

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I believe I see a slither of BN night and day up in the north central/northeast section of NC

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yes! Against the 1987-2016 climo period your area of NC is below average ever so slightly! However consider that 2011-2016 were all above or well above average Decembers w/ an absolute torch in 2015, while 1981-1986 were not mild overall in comparison, using the more stereotypical 1981-2010 base period it's still above or nearly so. :/
 
Jessy89 said:
Your very aggressive with your predictions and forecast. But very informative and I enjoy your stuff


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Thanks! My predictions can be aggressive, but sometimes it hard to keep it at a minimum because I don't want to leave out certain points that are a possibility. Which those possibilities can be on the aggressive side.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Milder overnight low temperatures have been really kicking our butt and are the primary of the reason why we're running above normal for the 9th December in a row.

Daily highs are actually at or below normal thanks in large part to the plethora of CAD events we've seen this month.
Click to expand...

Night lows are super lame this month... not wintry at all. It's making me miss frequent teens/20s of New Hampshire some.
 
The latest mjo charts. Euro and eps want to take it to the phase 5 or 6, which are warm phases. If they are correct.
 

Attachments

  • ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
    ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
    28 KB · Views: 38
  • ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
    ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
    27.1 KB · Views: 37
Golf7575 said:
The latest mjo charts. Euro and eps want to take it to the phase 5 or 6, which are warm phases. If they are correct.
Click to expand...

33730a76d341245a7754ff2a92e0cf75.jpg


I might be seeing the wrong one.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Good lord it’s bowling ball after bowling ball on the 18z gfs . Only a matter of time now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, like I said before, the precip is not going to be a problem. We have had rain here every weekend the past four weekends. We seem to be stuck in that pattern, too, with plenty of precip coming every week for the foreseeable future. We just need the cold to meet up with it. I think we're headed in the right direction. Just have to be patient.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, like I said before, the precip is not going to be a problem. We have had rain here every weekend the past four weekends. We seem to be stuck in that pattern, too, with plenty of precip coming every week for the foreseeable future. We just need the cold to meet up with it. I think we're headed in the right direction. Just have to be patient.
Click to expand...

Precip wasn’t a problem last year either, and I was pretty much blanked. We need a good sustained cold and shot after shot here and even then it’s dicey. I love optimism, but after the past few years here in Charlotte my glass is slowly becoming half empty.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top