Pattern The Great December Dump

[Mitch West]

Brad P made a good point on a video he just posted on youtube. It's not really about the pattern next week, it's more about setting the stage late next week. After next weekend, I think we really get into the favorable pattern then. Seems like an eternity away I know.

 

[TheBatman]

Brad P made a good point on a video he just posted on youtube. It's not really about the pattern next week, it's more about setting the stage late next week. After next weekend, I think we really get into the favorable pattern then. Seems like an eternity away I know.

Wanna post the YouTube link???

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cmc not bad, unfortunately it’s the CMC, i been looking at it lately, it’s been bad

 

[Ollie Williams]

Cmc not bad, unfortunately it’s the CMC, i been looking at it lately, it’s been bad View attachment 27244

Statistically Its better than the FV3

 

[Mitch West]

Wanna post the YouTube link???

Sure!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Statistically Its better than the FV3

That’s embarrassing we have a model worse than the CMC, looking at COD it’s close right now, it might shear out

 

[accu35]

Cmc complete mess with next week system.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cmc complete mess with next week system.

It’s close but it shears out as it gets into the SE

 

[jackendrickwx]

Pretty good support for Tennessee on GEFS

 

[Storm5]

That system late next week /weekend is interesting . Same system as the euro had


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheBatman]

That system late next week /weekend is interesting . Same system as the euro had


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea, just need a little more push of cold air. It could turn out to be a big system for a lot of people on here.

 

[TheBatman]

Definitely a interesting look.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looked a little bit better at H5, also little not as important but the precip maps have increased for a icy threat in CAD areas

 

[CyclonicFury]

Im not sure we want Dec to be different than previous Decembers given the last 2 were epic.

That depends on location. December 2017 was epic for parts of the deep south and mountains of NC, but absolutely sucked for those south and east of I-85. December 2018 had snowfall farther east into NC, but absolutely sucked for the deep south. Aside from the early month winter storms, temperatures were generally above-normal with no frozen precipitation. The last time we had a truly good December was 2010.

 

[GaWx]

SE Cold wx enthusiasts will largely not like the 12Z GEFS for midmonth because it is much warmer than recent runs with near normal instead of below to MB.

 

[Rain Cold]

Looks like a nice overraining event next week, but the pattern setting up after looks pretty good.

 

[Storm5]

SE Cold wx enthusiasts will largely not like the 12Z GEFS for midmonth because it is much warmer than recent runs.

I dont look past a week out anymore it’s pointless . The ensembles are all over the place. The gefs is always too cold and the EPS has been too warm lately.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[accu35]

That storm late next week definitely looks interesting. Its definitely about the timing, GEFS is a bit more excited about it

 

[Webberweather53]

Gfs is trending to leaving more energy behind instead of it getting absorbed, this allows moisture to run into cold (overrunning), and it’s this allows a more classic overrunning look vs a anafrontal look, certainly the separation helps View attachment 27235

Yea obviously still not great but better. Digging the shortwave more or amplifying it are a few ways we can slow the entire thing down and give us a solution that tends towards Miller B instead of a piss-poor anafront w/ cold air chasing moisture & having the cold high failing to build in time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

At this point I’d go with average conditions the next 2 weeks