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Pattern The Great December Dump

The 00z EURO and 12z GFS
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By the time it really gets going it’s not cold enough.


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Really cranks when it hits Gulf Stream but as pointed out not enough confluence when it gets going. Also don’t like all the ridging in the midwest
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Stormdoc said:
Really cranks when it hits Gulf Stream but as pointed out not enough confluence when it gets going. Also don’t like all the ridging in the midwest
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I would have liked to have seen what she would have done with that funnel of confluence still in tact. Would have been a pretty run
 
I don’t think we are anywhere near seeing what will actually occur yet. The players are on the field . Will the SE score is yet to be determined. It’s at least promising we have had 2 events to monitor this December. Beats the hell out of 70s and torching all month. Much different feel this year.


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Well look everyone keeps saying the gfs has been consistent in a storm. Yes that’s True but every run has been dramatically different. Yes perhaps there’s a storm. But it very well may just be a rain event for many people. Cold air is marginal. If only this was mid January.


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Jessy89 said:
The biggest problem here is cold air. It’s a very marginal setup.


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Another ULL over my area with marginal temps, sounds like last winter.

Regardless, another threading the needle event it appears, everything has to be timed and placed perfectly.
 
Jessy89 said:
12z is even less of a event. Things are definitely headed in the wrong direction today.


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It’s one model run... some of y’all really need to know the importance of trends and what a trend is ... over long periods of runs 3-4 or more is where u see trends not a spoof one run.. even with this run the storm is still showing up and we haven’t even seen the ensembles yet and that’s the most important part of any model.
 
Jessy89 said:
Well look everyone keeps saying the gfs has been consistent in a storm. Yes that’s True but every run has been dramatically different. Yes perhaps there’s a storm. But it very well may just be a rain event for many people. Cold air is marginal. If only this was mid January.


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Does it really matter whether its Late December or Mid January ?
 
Still no real cold air in sight for the SE on the 2 week model consensus fwiw. Then again, the 11-15 day portion of models has been near worthless over the last month or so.

Regardless, even if we average the next 2 weeks slightly warmer than normal as the consensus suggests (average high over next 2 weeks, say, in the mid 60s here) that is easily the best weather of the year. As long as we don’t torch, I’m content.
 
GaWx said:
Still no real cold air in sight for the SE on the 2 week model consensus fwiw. Then again, the 11-15 day portion of models has been near worthless over the last month or so.

Regardless, even if we average the next 2 weeks slightly warmer than normal as the consensus suggests, that is easily the best weather of the year. As long as we don’t torch, I’m content.
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This cooler air this year has definitely put a dent on the fire ants around here, past 5 years after a soaking rain you’d see mounds everywhere, different this year, I’ll take average to slightly AN temps
 
GaWx said:
Still no real cold air in sight for the SE on the 2 week model consensus fwiw. Then again, the 11-15 day portion of models has been near worthless over the last month or so.

Regardless, even if we average the next 2 weeks slightly warmer than normal as the consensus suggests (average high over next 2 weeks, say, in the mid 60s here) that is easily the best weather of the year. As long as we don’t torch, I’m content.
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I'll take seasonal temps any December, I still cringe at how warm December 2015 was.
 
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Such good tracks, just not enough CAA, probably due to less influence from the 50/50 or it being to far south to tug in colder 850s, later phase always helps with CAA05F5BCD4-FC13-4A82-AC5D-09479FFBC283.jpeg
 
NoSnowATL said:
I might be wrong but don’t we need it to phase in that location?


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We don’t necessarily need it to phase at all at any point in time, leaving the southern stream wave/ cut off ULL alone is often perfectly fine and even preferred in situations like these. The phasing process can at least initially shear and distort the ULL and drag it further north which in such an instance might leave this threat confined to the mid Atlantic instead of the SE US.

Moral of the story: phasing doesn’t always = a better storm. Jan 2000 is a good example of what can happen if the southern stream wave is left alone
 
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It’s important to keep in mind regarding model “trends” that the further you move away from verification, the less likely a model “trend” actually represents reality. This is especially true when we’re dealing with forecasts for a cut off ULL several days-week out, and these ULLs are usually the most difficult phenomena to predict.

Forecasters and enthusiasts alike should really pay attention to shorter term trends in NWP (particularly when said trends are coupled with new, reliable, more adequately constrained observations from RAOBs, surface stations, etc) because these short term trends are not only are likely indicative of something real, but they also tend to propagate forward in time on later model runs and may reverse or enhance a “trend” in a model at some later time.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We don’t necessarily need it to phase at all at any point in time, leaving the southern stream wave/ cut off ULL alone is often perfectly fine and even preferred in situations like these. The phasing process can at least initially shear and distort the ULL and drag it further north which in such an instance might leave this threat confined to the mid Atlantic instead of the SE US.

Moral of the story: phasing doesn’t always = a better storm. Jan 2000 is a good example of what can happen if the southern stream wave is left alone
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Yeah always hesitant to bring up the crusher but it had some similar traits. If I remember it had that convection that models at the time did not pick up on that helped that wave bomb out once it hit the gulf
 
Honestly this far out I like suppression because we all know more than likely she’s coming north west as we come closer to the event
 
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