LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
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Yeah this looks like a potential TN valley storm to me. The cold air simply doesn't dive far enough south.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah this looks like a potential TN valley storm to me. The cold air simply doesn't dive far enough south.
Yeah, you can see how the changes at H5 have affected the “axis” of precipitation, more favorable look, we could certainly get a better/stronger shortwave than what the GFS spits out tho, still lots of work to do
ATLwxfan
Member
Yup here's your overruning
Still mostly for Tennessee and the Apps but better than nothing.
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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the NAM would've been a good one if it went past 84
Compared to the GFS
Compared to the GFS
Yeah, our best shot would be the shortwave slowing down more to allow that surface high pressure to filter in colder air then get that shortwave to move in
ICE storm incoming on GFS
Fountainguy97
Member
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the NAM would've been a good one if it went past 84
Compared to the GFS
Oh yeah. The nam closes off our SW. the longer it stays intact the better results downstream.
gfs did strengthen our SW energy
the stronger the SW the more “independence” it will have and will resist the pull of the frontal energy.
So we want to see the NAM strength verify. Of course it’s the long range NAM so...
Spoke too soon my guy. That high was never locked in. Almost all rain
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The GFS definitely a big step in the right direction.
its a big difference compared to the last suite. I think it took a better step
Correct me if I’m wrong but NAM is usually pretty right around 66hr with setup?
Also energy looks to be trending stronger?
Fountainguy97
Member
nam not too far off that euro run. BUT it’s the NAM. And it likes to amp up SW in its long range
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I like what the GFS is showing later in the run even if its hard to see it happening. Phases late, manages to run inland, screws most people over in the MA/NE.
No I honestly hope the MA/NE get some to build snowpack which will help with high pressure staying in place longer, which in the end will benefit us in the SE.
Wowzers look at all the cold air @hr213
Running out of time to get a closed low of that strength, at least the gfs took a better step, but right now things are sheared and quick, like what @Fountainguy97 said we need a stronger closed low so it would slow down a bit and help seperate itself, that would Help it become more of a miller B/CAD type setup (would allow time for the high pressure to scoot East) vs a Ana frontal/overrunning setup and a sheared wave we’re seeing now
Let us see if we get a weenie run in the med/long range of the gfs. Definitely plenty of cold air to the north.
