NCCWOP9077
Member
The 00z CFSv2 has a phasing system as well that consolidates off the NC/VA coast during the same time frame.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It seems entirely possible that the GFS is leading the way in a general sense, but the details are yet to be determined. So, keep your snow hopes in check for now. Just my two pennies.
I think you’re right. With the blocking that is setting up and all the energy flying around, one would assume that the ingredients are definitely there for a storm of some kind next weekend. Just way too early to get excited about specifics.
One thing is for sure is the GFS is sniffing a storm, but has no idea where.
Jessy89
Member
I hate that it’s trending to a NC/Virginia only storm.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Wish mississippi and Alabama would be part of the game
Yeah, I don't like this run. Although you can't call it a trend based on one run, It moved north then south then north. Though GEFS moved north too. I have mixed feelings about this system until the Euro gets onboard.
No Euro generally means no storm
I feel like during tracking a storm, if the Euro comes on board at one point, we probably get something one way or another.
Shaggy
Member
Being east of I95 my hopes only go up when the models have a strung out mess that trends to a late bloomer off the coast. I'll watch to see how much rain I get.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That use to be the case for sure. Not so much anymore. What have you done for me lately kind of thing.
Jessy89
Member
Well what has the gfs done for you lately?
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I'll take e19 and it's not for me this one's for Mack Lord knows he needs it.....all I've heard for yearsFWIW, a much larger increase in the GEFS incoming.
Through 192
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Dethroned King Euro.
?
If this trends north with the amount of blocking we got, idk how to score here nomore lol
I'm not liking that opening around the GL. It's something the Euro has and needs to be closed and packed with heavy-duty tape.
Needs flex tape
Jessy89
Member
I feel like the GFS as of 6z gets it going to late. Especially for most people on this board. We need this to start in the gulf go across north Florida and up the coast. That’s about the perfect scenario
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ajr
Member
Whatever the temperatures are, looks like moisture won't hold any of us up
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What I really want to see is it trend much further W and the energy turn positive sooner so areas like AL and GA can get in on the action too. It's not too far from happening we just need a few adjustments like some of the GEFS ensembles have had.
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s amazing with such an active storm track, that all we have to talk about is a opportunity that’s trending away from us.
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Jessy89
Member
That sure is what it appears. I think based on gfs consistency. There will be a storm but at this point not many people on this board will see much. Unless we can get this thing started in the gulf.
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ajr
Member
I’m not sure what we’re calling “trends” are really trends, but more just run-to-run variability/noise. We’re nowhere near hammering out details yet.
I guess this could trend better but at this point I would rather see the GFS with a suppressed storm in the Bahamas and the Euro with at least a stronger 50/50 and more confluence. My only hope is that it is a very different set up and with phasing it makes it so much more difficult to nail down
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Which is normally the case in the midst of a chaotic split flow pattern such as the one we are in right now. I mean just look how much the Euro is struggling inside 200hr. That tells you about all you need to know
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's for you guys in RDU. For us further west, what we are probably looking for is a deeper dig and a faster phase as well as the trough to turn more negative sooner. That would likely be good for not only us but also you guys in NC if there's a good enough cold press that trends as well. Think about it, this thing is being depicted as a bomb on the GFS, but of course the Euro isn't close so you have to be skeptical about that. Suppression in the Bahamas is what the Euro was showing. It only works part of the time on model runs, but the other part they are so suppressed they never come back. The Euro does have a bomb too, but for the NE. That's also what you'll get if it's too far SE.
this is a great visual..need it 300 miles further southwest and we might have a chance
JB via his Latest video
"Big snow threat from the Carolinas to New England this upcoming weekend"
"Big snow threat from the Carolinas to New England this upcoming weekend"
It’s happening !!!!! not just in PA, lol (sarcasm)
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Oh lort..Guess you can put a fork in it now.
Going out on a limb here but I think major changes likely once the big rain event Tuesday passes. Kind of favoring the north-east right now even tho it’s not modeled. DC to Boston really needs to monitor this closely. It’s just too far out to say if this will include northern NC. unfortunately without a lot of cold air, I don’t see this working for most in the Raleigh to Charlotte corridor. But chances quickly go up north and west of there in the mtns/foothills/north and western piedmont. Had the gfs shown these solutions Wednesday I would just about be all in. Just 4 days too early. Good look trying to keep the storm suppressed that long in this very wet pattern.
That energy is gonna be on the US between 6z-18z Wednesday, so if we see things go in the right direction around that time, than we may have something truly legit
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Icon is suppressed with high in decent spot
A more northernly track is sorta a issue, that weakness in the GLs is the issue, the blocking is mostly good, we just need that that weakness to go away and we will indeed have a more suppressed storm, but yeah this could go in the NE favor if that weakness in the GL manages to develop and phases with that southern stream energy late, GFS was headed that direction last run
The GFS looks better than 06z. More Confluence. Although the 50/50 low is further east
I also like the ridging over top of it more/separation from that big GOA vortexThe GFS looks better than 06z. More Confluence. Although the 50/50 low is further east
This run is much better so far, back to a ULL look vs a trough look with a weakness
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I know it's the only one showing a winter storm here, but the GFS has been consistently showing one and is not backing down. It looks like there will be a system coming through next Sunday/Monday, and just a matter of what type of precip will it be. Just would feel better about it being snow if the other models came on board, especially the Euro. At the same time, a storm has been showing up for this time period for a good while now, and it is hard to discount the huge potential here.