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Pattern The Great December Dump

CADEffect said:
AL best chance would be the overrunning threat early next week. the second threat (Friday) looks to be confined to the Carolinas (for now). As webber mention we need it to slow down and begin separation from that pesky northern stream.
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Some on the gefs members has some fozen mix in Alabama, I believe only because cold air moving in quicker and the storm slowing down. Also couple of frames showing back side snow, but it all will change for better or worse
 
Didn't the GFS have a pretty bad problem with overdoing things like this last year when it was the Fv3? Did that ever get resolved before it went into operation? Been gone awhile trying to see if things have been addressed.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Didn't the GFS have a pretty bad problem with overdoing things like this last year when it was the Fv3? Did that ever get resolved before it went into operation? Been gone awhile trying to see if things have been addressed.
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long range yes. But this is inside 100hrs. Our SW is coming onshore this is a classic time for a trend like this as our SW is coming into focus.

if we get 12z support from Gefs and gfs again then this is most likely legit. Euro would seal the deal.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Didn't the GFS have a pretty bad problem with overdoing things like this last year when it was the Fv3? Did that ever get resolved before it went into operation? Been gone awhile trying to see if things have been addressed.
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When the core was implemented several months ago, The algorithms were corrected on the current version of the GFS. However, it has been noted the cold bias the GFS has it outputted more then 5days out.
 
Looks like the hp hit a wall and didn’t move east enough to establish any cold so temps are in the low 40’s to start the event. But finally temps get cold enough and frozen precip is showing up.
 
FWIW: The ICON has a similar look to the GFS with respects to the position of the high; it's just lacking the initial moisture over the SE. All in all, not bad trends if you like ice in the Carolina Piedmont. It would be nice to see the EURO shift to the GFS.
 
notice how the QPF doesn't drop off compaired to the last run. Eager to see the GEFS and that s/w1 .png
 

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Meteorologist1999 said:
The thing is the Cad will strengthen as we get closer?
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Yeh man, I get it, that’s the thought. But we said the same thing in early December last year and it wasn’t the case. I wouldn’t place bets on that or you’re just setting up for disappointment. Need the Euro to start throwing bone back into this.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
The thing is the Cad will strengthen as we get closer?
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Yeah but a few more tics north with that trailing wave and even the stoutest of cold air will scour out. And it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see that lobe correct north as we get closer
 
Robert West said:
Yeh man, I get it, that’s the thought. But we said the same thing in early December last year and it wasn’t the case. I wouldn’t place bets on that or you’re just setting up for disappointment. Need the Euro to start throwing bone back into this.
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Not setting up for disappointment, high is stronger the last three runs just different placement. Trends ?
 
Rick said:
Alabama gets nadda lol figures didnt see a flake last year and still waiting :(
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I feel your frustration. Although, it wouldn't take but a few degrees and parts of Bama would see some ice as well. Some gefs members shows that.
 
Looks like eastern upstate sc to northern midlands see a good storm. Western upstate not so much. However I question the placement of the high. Because just yesterday it was sliding out fast and today it’s slower. Of course the next run will be different again.


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