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Pattern The Great December Dump

WxWatch said:
I use a blend of models, and right now I'm using the CMC for the 500mb vort. with combination of the GFS. The trough in the southern stream is slightly positive, may become negative as it progresses east over night, 10th into the 11th. So yeah, with a blend of the latest GFS and CMC, I'd say there is a good chance for a wide swath of snow late next Tuesday into Wednesday.


Even the 12z ICON has a slight positive tilt trough in the southern stream that could also go negative.
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What area do you think this "wide swath of snow" will fall? Not saying it won't happen.... just having a little doubt that it will all materialize as you described. There are too many variables at this range. However, I got to hand it to you..... you haven't backed down.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Relying on the cmc for vort is like hoping your 1982 ford fiesta with 287k miles in need of major repairs to get you from New York to Dallas in one trip. The icon isn't too much better and seems to be all over the place most of the time but consistent, not in a good way.
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Lol
I get it though seriously; I'm not trying to cause a ruckus between which model is better. They're all models that calculate all possible outcomes.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, I don't know if you can pick and choose which features you like best on the different models and then put them all together. But that said, I don't disagree that it's a period worth watching and that you really can't rule anything out 100% at this point.
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I'm going to be honest; I do "cherry" pick from the main models of the best realistic possible outcome. If other models agree with that best realistic possible outcome, then it has a good chance of the scenario occurring. My rule of thumb when it comes to these models, don't let the models do all the work for you. Instead, input your skills/experience alongside the model data. They simply need human input.

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Cad Wedge NC said:
What area do you think this "wide swath of snow" will fall? Not saying it won't happen.... just having a little doubt that it will all materialize as you described. There are too many variables at this range. However, I got to hand it to you..... you haven't backed down.
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IMO he’s been way too alarming for something far out. Does he not know it’s always a safer call to say it’s not gonna snow much outside the mtns? Some solid posts but I don’t listen to alarmists for winter weather it never pans out 9 times out of 10.
 
Here is a map I created on where I think the snow will be. Be advised, the snow-zone may need some adjustments as time goes on.

SnowPredictionMap.jpg


At the surface, it would be cold, but not dry. RH levels at surface are high as 80% across portions of AL, GA and upstate SC. Even some 90% RH levels across western NC.

SurfaceRH.png

Looking up at the surface, 500mb, the RH is also high due to the STJ conveying warm/moist air in the upper level.

500mbRH.png

With the trends I have been seeing, the convergence of the polar jet and sub-tropical jet, deep cold air plunging southward, surface temps and upper air temps would be dropping rapidly, these big factors are coming together, which these factors are indicating a possible heavy wet snow event.

Edit: I forgot to add the 300mb layer, RH levels are high as well over some area's. Sub-tropical jet at work! Valid at midnight next Wednesday.

300mbRH.png
 
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WxWatch said:
Here is a map I created on where I think the snow will be. Be advised, the snow-zone may need some adjustments as time goes on.

View attachment 26926


At the surface, it would be cold, but not dry. RH levels at surface are high as 80% across portions of AL, GA and upstate SC. Even some 90% RH levels across western NC.

View attachment 26927

Looking up at the surface, 500mb, the RH is also high due to the STJ conveying warm/moist air in the upper level.

View attachment 26928

With the trends I have been seeing, the convergence of the polar jet and sub-tropical jet, deep cold air plunging southward, surface temps and upper air temps would be dropping rapidly, these big factors are coming together, which these factors are indicating a possible heavy wet snow event.

Edit: I forgot to add the 300mb layer, RH levels are high as well over some area's. Sub-tropical jet at work! Valid at midnight next Wednesday.

View attachment 26929
Click to expand...
Man, you got me so pumped up for something. It's almost like were expecting a winterstorm next week lol. You got my hopes very high, I really hope something happens and if it does I'll send you something special for Christmas lol. Storm or not, I love your stuff.
 
WxWatch said:
Here is a map I created on where I think the snow will be. Be advised, the snow-zone may need some adjustments as time goes on.

View attachment 26926


At the surface, it would be cold, but not dry. RH levels at surface are high as 80% across portions of AL, GA and upstate SC. Even some 90% RH levels across western NC.

View attachment 26927

Looking up at the surface, 500mb, the RH is also high due to the STJ conveying warm/moist air in the upper level.

View attachment 26928

With the trends I have been seeing, the convergence of the polar jet and sub-tropical jet, deep cold air plunging southward, surface temps and upper air temps would be dropping rapidly, these big factors are coming together, which these factors are indicating a possible heavy wet snow event.

Edit: I forgot to add the 300mb layer, RH levels are high as well over some area's. Sub-tropical jet at work! Valid at midnight next Wednesday.

View attachment 26929
Click to expand...

Gotta look at the layer from 850mb to 500mb though. Massive dry layer there. No chance at any precip, other than perhaps some low level drizzle. Gotta get that 700mb flow out of the SW instead of the west to west north west.
 
Good moisture
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_55.png
 
To much of a SER on the ICON with 580dm + making it into the eastern SE, we need less of a SER for this to work, would appear to possibly be a severe setup on the warm sector area on the ICON
 
WxWatch said:
Here is a map I created on where I think the snow will be. Be advised, the snow-zone may need some adjustments as time goes on.

View attachment 26926


At the surface, it would be cold, but not dry. RH levels at surface are high as 80% across portions of AL, GA and upstate SC. Even some 90% RH levels across western NC.

View attachment 26927

Looking up at the surface, 500mb, the RH is also high due to the STJ conveying warm/moist air in the upper level.

View attachment 26928

With the trends I have been seeing, the convergence of the polar jet and sub-tropical jet, deep cold air plunging southward, surface temps and upper air temps would be dropping rapidly, these big factors are coming together, which these factors are indicating a possible heavy wet snow event.

Edit: I forgot to add the 300mb layer, RH levels are high as well over some area's. Sub-tropical jet at work! Valid at midnight next Wednesday.

View attachment 26929
Click to expand...
I like your stuff. If you pull this one off your going to be the goat on here. Lol
 
I maybe wrong, but I believe the ICON has terrible predicted temp. profiles. The placement of moisture is ideal though, it's in the snow-zone that I drew on my map that I posted up earlier. If it was cold on that run, that would be a lot of snow on tonight's ICON run. The main front passes through, moisture builds back in as the STJ kicks in gear starting at 06z Tuesday.
 
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