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Pattern The Great December Dump

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I'll take my 9+ and run with it lol
 
Even the cold biased GFS is line w/ the thinking that we're actually going to be pretty mild the first portion of December. Most of the SE US will be at par for the course vs the last 8 Decembers being about 3-4F above average.

This takes us thru December 11th, hopefully that big arctic outbreak can put a dent in this.

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Webberweather53 said:
Even the cold biased GFS is line w/ the thinking that we're actually going to be pretty mild the first portion of December. Most of the SE US will be at par for the course vs the last 8 Decembers being about 3-4F above average.

This takes us thru December 11th, hopefully that big arctic outbreak can put a dent in this.

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Aren't we in the first part of December now? I had to scrape ice off my windshield again this morning....
 
The last couple of days have felt very fall like to me. I honestly don't care if nighttime lows are +10 AN. 40s to mid 50s for highs through Sunday. Then up for a few days, then back down. Since we're not in a winter storm pattern or staring down the barrel of a prolonged December torch, a few degrees either side of normal feels like fall and fall feels good. Who can complain about that?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why does it matter if people get hyped or not? He is putting out what he thinks could happen and why. Everyone so quick to shoot it down.
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You do recognize that those "shooting it down" are doing so with sound reasoning right? But sure why does it matter if one gets hyped, go for it, get hyped all you want just don't complain or call it a failure if/when it doesn't happen. Fact is I could point out the possibilities with any approaching storm system (if the trough would dig more, if it was just colder, if the low would slow down, if the energy would speed up, if we had divine intervention), any system and get hyped all day long, ride the hype train with caution and don't get heartbroken when those systems that aren't really systems to begin with, fail.
 
Rain Cold said:
The last couple of days have felt very fall like to me. I honestly don't care if nighttime lows are +10 AN. 40s to mid 50s for highs through Sunday. Then up for a few days, then back down. Since we're not in a winter storm pattern or staring down the barrel of a prolonged December torch, a few degrees either side of normal feels like fall and fall feels good. Who can complain about that?
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But I thought we had a winter storm bearing down on us in a week
 
metwannabe said:
But I thought we had a winter storm bearing down on us in a week
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Yeah, I'm still not really seeing it. I mean, what we'd want is a low developing and moving as shown below, along with the high in the Plains moving eastward just ahead of or in tandem with it. I don't see that showing up right now. But it's fine. I'm happy to let the Midwest and Northeast get cold and snow and hopefully get a good snow pack laid down north and west of here.

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Gefs is eh, been getting a better CAD signal and more HP in the eastern US with that second interesting system but the H5 pattern has started to trend the wrong way, this would suggest that things would likely mostly be ice/rain and its possible this could trend towards severe WX if the SE ridge builds more 630FB639-8B4F-4D14-A61F-EE8055805BFD.gifDBEFFC0A-D814-4B28-B1D7-486E5F4DA4DC.gif
 
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Strong cold front certainly looking likely this time next week. Maybe not Winter weather, but hey, we need the cold first right?!
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I'm still not really seeing it. I mean, what we'd want is a low developing and moving as shown below, along with the high in the Plains moving eastward just ahead of or in tandem with it. I don't see that showing up right now. But it's fine. I'm happy to let the Midwest and Northeast get cold and snow and hopefully get a good snow pack laid down north and west of here.

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Tablesetter
 
Robert West said:
Strong cold front certainly looking likely this time next week. Maybe not Winter weather, but hey, we need the cold first right?!
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We always get cold first, we need a storm to match with it
 
metwannabe said:
You do recognize that those "shooting it down" are doing so with sound reasoning right? But sure why does it matter if one gets hyped, go for it, get hyped all you want just don't complain or call it a failure if/when it doesn't happen. Fact is I could point out the possibilities with any approaching storm system (if the trough would dig more, if it was just colder, if the low would slow down, if the energy would speed up, if we had divine intervention), any system and get hyped all day long, ride the hype train with caution and don't get heartbroken when those systems that aren't really systems to begin with, fail.
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I also want to note,

Of course, my predictions are all based off of a technique I use that has a fairly good accuracy rating. I know some totally disagree with my predictions and malign the way I approach what is being shown on these models, which is fine. This forum is all about sharing our thoughts and analysis, and I like my analysis to have profundity. If some really like my posts, and if they're all hyped about it (like you mentioned) let them ride the hype train. That's what weather forecasting/predicting is all about, the joy and the exhilaration, whether if the prediction is right or wrong.
 
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