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Pattern The Great December Dump

12z GFS run is better and as meet my expectations. What is happening is, due to the polar and STJ convergence, this will trigger a low in the Gulf early as Wednesday just as I predicted. The low would be underneath the high and track underneath the jet. I'd expect the better trend to continue.

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Jessy89 said:
Looks like eastern upstate sc to northern midlands see a good storm. Western upstate not so much. However I question the placement of the high. Because just yesterday it was sliding out fast and today it’s slower. Of course the next run will be different again.


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That's only because the heaviest QPF is modeled on the OP to fall over the W Carolinas. That will change.


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Jessy89 said:
Looks like eastern upstate sc to northern midlands see a good storm. Western upstate not so much. However I question the placement of the high. Because just yesterday it was sliding out fast and today it’s slower. Of course the next run will be different again.


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I don't recall ever seeing CAD push south into central South Carolina, but not the western Piedmont and northeastern Georgia. I've lived several years in both areas.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS run is better and as meet my expectations. What is happening is, due to the polar and STJ convergence, this will trigger a low in the Gulf early as Wednesday just as I predicted. The low would be underneath the high and track underneath the jet. I'd expect the better trend to continue.

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Do you expect a NW trend to occur?
 
J.C. said:
I don't recall ever seeing CAD push south into central South Carolina, but not the western Piedmont and northeastern Georgia. I've lived several years in both areas.
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Agree, that’s why it’s wrong to a degree. When the CAD pushes clear through Columbia, it most of the time makes it to Atlanta.
 
For ice storms, I much prefer using pivotalweather over tropicaltidbits. This should give a more accurate idea of precip amounts compared to the tropicaltidbits algorithm.
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Ignore the placement and boundaries of frozen precipitation right now. Is the high in a favorable position and of favorable strength to deliver cold air into the damming regions through the event? Is the source region cold? Is there plenty of precipitation? Is the pattern supportive of those things? If all of those things are favorable, wintry precip will be expensive and damming will be more intense than currently modeled.
 
CADEffect said:
I'm not sure why some look at the CMC. Can you tell me what has the CNC done for us lately. I read somewhere they are due for an update next year.


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Your right, but I've seen the cmc out do other models in events like this. I look at it to compare with other models and plus it's a model to look at
 
CADEffect said:
I'm not sure why some look at the CMC. Can you tell me what has the CNC done for us lately. I read somewhere they are due for an update next year.


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The CMC has been doing better than the GFS. I'm not saying its right, the American model solutions are on an island by themselves.
model verif.PNG
CMC has what you don't want to see.gem_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
I don’t normally look at the JMA either but I’ve seen some post it so here it is
jma_z500a_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Ignore the placement and boundaries of frozen precipitation right now. Is the high in a favorable position and of favorable strength to deliver cold air into the damming regions through the event? Is the source region cold? Is there plenty of precipitation? Is the pattern supportive of those things? If all of those things are favorable, wintry precip will be expensive and damming will be more intense than currently modeled.
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All good questions to ask ourselves the next three Euro suite runs.


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CMC was all over the December 2017 wonderfulness. I know not to focus so much on p-type placement right now but this is trending in the wrong direction for metro ATL. Could be a nice bag of mixed precip for a Carolina Crusher.


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ATLwxfan said:
CMC was all over the December 2017 wonderfulness. I know not to focus so much on p-type placement right now but this is trending in the wrong direction for metro ATL. Could be a nice bag of mixed precip for a Carolina Crusher.


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Definitely looking like a Carolina storm as of now, CAD looks weird, Alabama and Georgia needs to see improvement in the next 2 days.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
Do you expect a NW trend to occur?
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No, I'm not expecting a NW trend with the low. I'm still going with the low staying in the Gulf. The question still remains rather if the low tracks further inland to generate CAD. If the low tracks further off of the southeastern coast, more snow would occur east of the mountains. I'm also thinking that a microhigh may build over the northeastern US as the low tracks towards the southeast due to sinking air to the north. Either way, I believe that the low would track east of the mountains, either further inland, on the coast or just off of the southeastern coast. The exact track is unknown, but the track of low is going to play a huge factor of p-type. I'm still thinking there would be wrap around snow with this system. The previous run of the Euro showed a triple phase, which if a triple phase occurs, this storm system would be stronger than what the GFS is showing. So, with that being said, I believe the GFS is underdoing the strength of low and moisture content becuase I'm considering the triple phase from the previous Euro. I think there would deep cold air coming far south on the back side due to a negative tilt trough. Also due to a possible triple phase, this storm system is going to amp quickly.

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WxWatch said:
No, I'm not expecting a NW trend with the low. I'm still going with the low staying in the Gulf. The question still remains rather if the low tracks further inland to generate CAD. If the low tracks further off of the southeastern coast, more snow would occur east of the mountains. I'm also thinking that a microhigh may build over the northeastern US as the low tracks towards the southeast due to sinking air to the north. Either way, I believe that the low would track east of the mountains, either further inland, on the coast or just off of the southeastern coast. The exact track is unknown, but the track of low is going to play a huge factor of p-type. I'm still thinking there would be wrap around snow with this system. The previous run of the Euro showed a triple phase, which if a triple phase occurs, this storm system would be stronger than what the GFS is showing. So, with that being said, I believe the GFS is underdoing the strength of low and moisture content becuase I'm considering the triple phase from the previous Euro. I think there would deep cold air coming far south on the back side due to a negative tilt trough. Also due to a possible triple phase, this storm system is going to amp quickly.

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Seems like the storm itself would have a cold core deeper than modeled? Especially with a triple phase.
 
Tarheel1 said:
High position in NY looks textbook, if it can hold?
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I have a feeling the GEFS is to quick with swinging the big trough through and thus missing the southern low. I have a feeling its going to start digging that further sw like theEuro/UK show. Below is the 12z Euro/UK and 0z Euro at day 3.

I also if the strength of the atlantic ridge is affecting this too. The GFS is knows to be to weak at this range.

GEFSUKEuro.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Those differences in a large scale sense are still pretty trivial even for being 72 hours out. At best we have a 15-20% chance of seeing an ice storm next week.
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Its fascinating that such small timing differences at day 2-3 could result in a major winter event or dry cold.
 
KyloG said:
Its fascinating that such small timing differences at day 2-3 could result in a major winter event or dry cold.
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My opinion is wintry wx stay along the 1-85 north in CAD region. I hope it could build into central SC we are in due for wintry wx.
 
I know the NAVGEM isn't one of the main used models, but it has the low development underneath the high at 18z Wednesday. I'm considering this model in this case because it has what I'm going with what I've been predicting for days now. This was the 06z run from this morning, we'll see what it shows on the 12z run.
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WxWatch said:
I know the NAVGEM isn't one of the main used models, but it has the low development underneath the high at 18z Wednesday. I'm considering this model in this case because it has what I'm going with what I've been predicting for days now. This was the 06z run from this morning, we'll see what it shows on the 12z run.
cb4375ed846163fc5e82ba119fb1c5db.jpg


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Does any of the models you seen. Change where you think it snow and where you think there’s ice?


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