Pattern The Great December Dump

[Myfrotho704_]

You know this ends up meeting in the middle. Decaying arctic air mass with the parent high going ots means a few people start as a few sleet pellets or snow flakes and go to rain quickly. That initial band of iso precip locks in the wedge, the tmb gets stuck east of 95 and most of nc is locked in at 34-40 with 850s of +10 so we get an elevated band of storms rolling through with areas SE of RDU making a last second push to 55-60

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You just said the last storm basically, lol

 

[ForsythSnow]

I understand that you disagree, everyone has their different views. But considering the polar and STJ convergence, there's no doubt that something wintry is bound to happen. It could be minimal, but a quick shot at some heavy snow on the back side of the moisture is possible. Or it could be something significant, a wide coverage of a long duration of heavy snowfall. I do think that strong storm signal around the 15th or so may come up on the tail end of the boundary. We'll see how things shape up, still to early to "iron" out anything.

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Yes there's always a chance, but to say there's a chance of a big storm this early is just not a smart call. Patterns can be watched, but STJ convergences alone won't do well. Check the 500 mb vort signature. Very weak and not even a good tilt. There won't be much moisture with this one.

 

[ForsythSnow]

The 18z GFS would have shown snow at the surface during the 10th/11th, but I think it's having a convection issue. Looking at the modeled IR, you can see cold cloud tops which this indicates convection. The modeled IR also depicts on where the STJ is streaming from. I have no doubt in my mind there would be snow falling from lower/mid Mississippi, AL, GA and and up through the Carolina's late next Tuesday into Wednesday. View attachment 26919

No strong moisture flow and no neutral tilt = no moisture.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The 18z GFS would have shown snow at the surface during the 10th/11th, but I think it's having a convection issue. Looking at the modeled IR, you can see cold cloud tops which this indicates convection. The modeled IR also depicts on where the STJ is streaming from. I have no doubt in my mind there would be snow falling from lower/mid Mississippi through AL, GA and and up through the Carolina's late next Tuesday into Wednesday. View attachment 26919

I hope for your sake this really does happen ?

 

[SD]

No strong moisture flow and no neutral tilt = no moisture.

You need 1 of 2 things here to really get something going. 1. The energy in Texas needs to be stronger with a weaker push from the trough in the lakes. That would allow the southern wave to amplify a bit and possibly kick off overrunning behind the lead front. 2. You need the main trough over the lakes to be deep but west. You could in theory kick the front through with the lead wave then maybe get something to fire up along the old front as the trailing trough approaches.

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[Rain Cold]

No strong moisture flow and no neutral tilt = no moisture.

That southern stream energy is strung out like a junkie. Needs to go to rehab and get itself together.

 

[WxWatch]

No strong moisture flow and no neutral tilt = no moisture.

I use a blend of models, and right now I'm using the CMC for the 500mb vort. with combination of the GFS. The trough in the southern stream is slightly positive, may become negative as it progresses east over night, 10th into the 11th. So yeah, with a blend of the latest GFS and CMC, I'd say there is a good chance for a wide swath of snow late next Tuesday into Wednesday.




Even the 12z ICON has a slight positive tilt trough in the southern stream that could also go negative.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we have the tale of two models, with the GFS looking wintry, while the Euro says no. Would be something if the GFS leads the way and the Euro falls in line. I mean, the GFS has to actually get better sometime, right?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

altho I wouldn’t bet on wintry precip now, and I don’t find it as likely, the gefs says the first system isn’t out the window yet, some still show wintry precip in the SE with the first system, like I said it’s unlikely for now

 

[Jessy89]

Something to keep a eye on. But I don’t see any snow chances at this point. Don’t mean it can’t trend that way though for Dec 10-12th


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[WxWatch]

altho I wouldn’t bet on wintry precip now, and I don’t find it as likely, the gefs says the first system isn’t out the window yet, some still show wintry precip in the SE with the first system, like I said it’s unlikely for now View attachment 26923

Thank you for posting that! Now can people agree with me? When something has my attention, I mean it.

 

[Rain Cold]

I use a blend of models, and right now I'm using the CMC for the 500mb vort. with combination of the GFS. The trough in the southern stream is slightly positive, may become negative as it progresses east over night, 10th into the 11th. So yeah, with a blend of the latest GFS and CMC, I'd say there is a good chance for a wide swath of snow late next Tuesday into Wednesday.

View attachment 26921


Even the 12z ICON has a slight positive tilt trough in the southern stream that could also go negative.


View attachment 26922

Man, I don't know if you can pick and choose which features you like best on the different models and then put them all together. But that said, I don't disagree that it's a period worth watching and that you really can't rule anything out 100% at this point.

 

[BHS1975]

Man, I don't know if you can pick and choose which features you like best on the different models and then put them all together. But that said, I don't disagree that it's a period worth watching and that you really can't rule anything out 100% at this point.

Sounds like he’s all in on it. He should get to start the thread if it has legs.


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[Arcc]

I use a blend of models, and right now I'm using the CMC for the 500mb vort. with combination of the GFS. The trough in the southern stream is slightly positive, may become negative as it progresses east over night, 10th into the 11th. So yeah, with a blend of the latest GFS and CMC, I'd say there is a good chance for a wide swath of snow late next Tuesday into Wednesday.

View attachment 26921


Even the 12z ICON has a slight positive tilt trough in the southern stream that could also go negative.


View attachment 26922

Gotta slow down the southern wave by a good bit to see anything here, like the Euro was doing Sunday. Not impossible at this point though.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Man, I don't know if you can pick and choose which features you like best on the different models and then put them all together. But that said, I don't disagree that it's a period worth watching and that you really can't rule anything out 100% at this point.

I agree on a nice pattern, but cherry-picking it and saying there is a good chance of a large swath of snow, IMO is wishcasting. Heck, I'll get enthused if there is just on op with something.

 

[wxdaniel]

Man, I don't know if you can pick and choose which features you like best on the different models and then put them all together. But that said, I don't disagree that it's a period worth watching and that you really can't rule anything out 100% at this point.

Who's to say JB doesn't pick and choose a blend of models? If so we all know how that turns out. Lol


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[NoSnowATL]

I agree on a nice pattern, but analyzing it and saying there is a good chance of a large swath of snow, IMO is wishcasting.

It’s definitely a good pattern of systems every 3-5 days but the issue I see is that it isn’t cold enough for snow. Cold rain sure but below 32. Nope. Not yet . Looks like the cold stays in the mid west. Brent might get lucky.


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[ForsythSnow]

I use a blend of models, and right now I'm using the CMC for the 500mb vort. with combination of the GFS. The trough in the southern stream is slightly positive, may become negative as it progresses east over night, 10th into the 11th. So yeah, with a blend of the latest GFS and CMC, I'd say there is a good chance for a wide swath of snow late next Tuesday into Wednesday.

View attachment 26921


Even the 12z ICON has a slight positive tilt trough in the southern stream that could also go negative.


View attachment 26922

Relying on the cmc for vort is like hoping your 1982 ford fiesta with 287k miles in need of major repairs to get you from New York to Dallas in one trip. The icon isn't too much better and seems to be all over the place most of the time but consistent, not in a good way.

 

[packfan98]

Let’s keep the frog discussion in the banter threads...

 

[NoSnowATL]

Relying on the cmc for vort is like hoping your 1982 ford fiesta with 287k miles in need of major repairs to get you from New York to Dallas in one trip. The icon isn't too much better and seems to be all over the place most of the time but consistent, not in a good way.

Bottom line is if the Euro doesn’t haven’t then it most likely won’t happen. The king is king for a reason, we don’t see too many winter storm that the Euro passes on. Is it . No but it’s the starting point for me.


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