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Pattern The Great December Dump

Wow ... the agreement speaks for its self ... notice how the energy stays back and punches off a little bit on this Gfs run ... could be a new trend
 

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Here is 06z GFS totals. This will change and as Eric has pointed out the euro and EPS are not on board with this solution.
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I know most are focused on the upcoming storms but I’m curious how we’re looking down the road around Christmas and after. Do we maintain our pattern, get warmer, get colder? Any guesses?
 
KyloG said:
Don’t forget about the NAVGEM. So we have GFS/JMA/NAVGEM vs UK/Euro

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We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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metwannabe said:
We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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Until about two years ago it was like Groundhog Day. But since the euro was dethroned, not so much the case anymore.
 
I want some winter weather but I wouldn’t go with the gfs that is changing more than the euro. The truth may be in between with little ice to cold rain maybe heavy at times.
 
Stormdoc said:
Wow that is so close. Any change in how the 6Z EPS compares to the 0Z?
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Just minor. I would expect the GFS to cave after a couple more runs. This is in the Euro/EPS wheelhouse.
 
KyloG said:
Just minor. I would expect the GFS to cave after a couple more runs. This is in the Euro/EPS wheelhouse.
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Typically I would say yes given precedent. However, in these marginal cases I have seen the off hour models pick up on the trend first that leads to a different outcome. 12Z models will be interesting.
 
Looks like Euro might be coming around @ 6z
 
Stormdoc said:
Typically I would say yes given precedent. However, in these marginal cases I have seen the off hour models pick up on the trend first that leads to a different outcome. 12Z models will be interesting.
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Op Euro is going the wrong way for several runs now. It would be surprising, very surprising if the GFS were to beat the Euro at this range. This is really a day 3 modeling deal...we will know by day 3 if there is enough spacing between the digging trough and the southern wave.

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KyloG said:
Op Euro is going the wrong way for several runs now. It would be surprising, very surprising if the GFS were to beat the Euro at this range. This is really a day 3 modeling deal...we will know by day 3 if there is enough spacing between the digging trough and the southern wave.

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Looks like it’s own ensemble is starting to disagree with it.
 
I`m a little confused here. I've been working 6 days a week lately so I have been trying to keep up before and after work. Are we honing in on first wave or the second one on Friday? Also didn't the Euro run from couple days ago the first to show anything for late next week? I would imagine if the GFS/NAVGEM/CMC/JMA are going in on the CAD sleet/freezing rain solution late next week the Euro will possibly reverse back around maybe not to that extreme, but within that range. Friday is 6 days away, we're technically not in the Euro's wheelhouse yet. If the Euro hasn't reverse course by Monday, perhaps 12z Tuesday it's likely a done deal. I can't trust the Goofus and it's clownish allies to score a coup. lol
 
KyloG said:
Looks like EPS and GEFS both agree on maybe some sort of reshuffling towards 3rd week of Dec into Xmas. Still no signs of a torchy atlantic ridge though.

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When the PV is on our side of the globe and the second strongest low on earth is the Aleutian low, it's not a bad look at all.
 
KyloG said:
Just small differences make or break this. Latest 6z EPS vs 6z GEFS

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seen many cases like this where the vort max ends up becoming stronger in NWP in the short range so I’m hesitant to discount the GEFS atm. A stronger shortwave would also result in said wave slowing down which is what we want to score here to create more separation. The EPS northern stream evolution with a stronger southern stream wave like the GEFS shows would be ideal.
 
Webberweather53 said:
seen many cases like this where the vort max ends up becoming stronger in NWP in the short range so I’m hesitant to discount the GEFS atm. A stronger shortwave would also result in said wave slowing down which is what we want to score here to create more separation. The EPS northern stream evolution with a stronger southern stream wave like the GEFS shows would be ideal.
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Our s/w should be adequately sampled by tomorrow’s 12z runs, I’m sure that will help in some regard
 
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