Pattern The Great December Dump

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow ... the agreement speaks for its self ... notice how the energy stays back and punches off a little bit on this Gfs run ... could be a new trend

 

[Claycochaser]

Oh wow. Triple phaser incoming....

I'm getting chills...

Now this here is sexy. You rarely ever see this look even modeled let alone verify.

 

[whatalife]

Here is 06z GFS totals. This will change and as Eric has pointed out the euro and EPS are not on board with this solution.

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[RobertRath]

I know most are focused on the upcoming storms but I’m curious how we’re looking down the road around Christmas and after. Do we maintain our pattern, get warmer, get colder? Any guesses?

 

[Ethan80963]

I’d say the GEFS has a big increase all around

 

[Wulfer]

Can someone put up those graphs for KCHA? I would be greatful if you did!

 

[KyloG]

Don’t forget about the NAVGEM. So we have GFS/JMA/NAVGEM vs UK/Euro

 

[atlweatherman]

Can someone put up those graphs for KCHA? I would be greatful if you did!

Also, please post for Atlanta.

 

[Metwannabe]

Don’t forget about the NAVGEM. So we have GFS/JMA/NAVGEM vs UK/Euro

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We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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[KyloG]

Just small differences make or break this. Latest 6z EPS vs 6z GEFS

 

[SD]

Don’t forget about the NAVGEM. So we have GFS/JMA/NAVGEM vs UK/Euro

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You know the winning camp here

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[BirdManDoomW]

I would go with EURO for now until gfs is consistent.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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Until about two years ago it was like Groundhog Day. But since the euro was dethroned, not so much the case anymore.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I’d say the GEFS has a big increase all around
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Did Columbia SC get an increased for midlands?

 

[Deleted member 1449]

You know the winning camp here

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Yeah, modelology 101 right here. EC/UK is tough to beat at this range.

 

[Stormdoc]

Just small differences make or break this. Latest 6z EPS vs 6z GEFS

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Wow that is so close. Any change in how the 6Z EPS compares to the 0Z?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I want some winter weather but I wouldn’t go with the gfs that is changing more than the euro. The truth may be in between with little ice to cold rain maybe heavy at times.

 

[KyloG]

Wow that is so close. Any change in how the 6Z EPS compares to the 0Z?

Just minor. I would expect the GFS to cave after a couple more runs. This is in the Euro/EPS wheelhouse.

 

[Stormdoc]

Just minor. I would expect the GFS to cave after a couple more runs. This is in the Euro/EPS wheelhouse.

Typically I would say yes given precedent. However, in these marginal cases I have seen the off hour models pick up on the trend first that leads to a different outcome. 12Z models will be interesting.

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks like Euro might be coming around @ 6z