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Pattern The Great December Dump

Interesting trend on this GFS run, the high in MN, is 1038, as it moves into WI, it’s a 1041, little trends, but interesting!
 
Where’s the moisture!???E3F8E4E9-BB66-44DB-9504-0A411D839B5F.png
 
This run looks better we were able to keep the high around a little longer might be in for an interesting run....
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh156_trend.gif
But after this the high moves out and the low moves immediately NNE through central GA, SC, and NC?‍♂️
 
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Let's bring this baby home
gfs_asnow_seus_30.png
 
A few more degrees difference and timing little better than that second storm will be a dream come true for us weenies
 
dew points are solid enough to get the job done prior, but low track is atrocious. That unfavoranle
ridging isn’t going anywhere. DP’s go up in flames. It’s not as close as precip maps make it out to be. We might have a chance or two in February. I wouldn’t completely give up hope yet
 
That second piece of energy starts to phase later, and that's actually why it starts tracking up. But I'm looking at the 500 mb maps, and although I'm tired, it doesn't look like there's many ways for it to stay shoved down in the gulf and track west to east, IMO. The northern pieces of energy would need to get in front without interacting to keep it down.

There might be an icing problem anyway to start out though. Doesn't take a lot for problems.
 
The apps rubber and cutters are lined up one after another on this run! Not a good pattern on GFS. Yes, we are not 20 degrees above normal, but watching cutters and runners for a week or two, will get old49F28B51-DD50-4DC7-95B4-4834C78CA9D1.png
 
As many of us said earlier, it may not bring snow to many of us in the SE but yikes... You dont see this often and with this much consensus. Look at that leaf. GFS is a sharper western trough from going '93 nuts.
 

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WxWatch said:
I'm liking what I'm seeing on tonight's 0z GFS and CMC. The timing is still off with the 2nd S/W (imo.) But the the timing with things are slowly getting there. I still think that 2nd S/W will start moving quicker, catching up to the tail end of the first wave. I'm not agreeing that the high sliding out first, and then the low pressure comes about. Soon as the strong high pressure slides southeast from Canada, I have confidence that a low pressure will develop on the tail end of the first (overrunning wave) underneath the strong high. I have calculated that arctic high will have an air pressure mean value of 1040mb as soon it drops down out of Canada. I have chosen the 0z CMC 500mb(vort) verses the 0z GFS for the 2nd S/W because it has the wave in the ideal location. That S/W that I circled in black would be the major winter storm according to my predictions. I'm still going with my original prediction, we would start seeing the beginnings of the low development early as Wednesday down in the Gulf of Mexico. View attachment 27326
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@WxWatch due you think areas further south lets say I-20 south have a chance to see something if this storm verifys
 
Strong coastal just inland gulf (Florida) convection maybe it will help rob most of the moisture.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s one way to get it done. Timing was impeccable on the 06z.. I would be shocked it matches reality View attachment 27331
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That's one heck of a wedge.... temps here in the low 20's with a pronounced sleet sounding during most of the event. Starts as a little snow and ends as some freezing rain. Temps never get up to freezing. Wow... Let's see what the king has to say in a little bit.
 
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