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Pattern The Great December Dump

packfan98 said:
CAD storm setup on the Euro:
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
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Hard to love where that low is headed..”it can’t cut with that 1043 up there.”..still very early though
 
packfan98 said:
CAD storm setup on the Euro:
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
Click to expand...

That one may have big legs on it.

Firstly, western ridge is being under played so far this winter.

Secondly, the big low over the NE is always too fast exiting stage right in modeling. I expect it to trend westward. This wave will likely either hit the jackpot or be crushed. I don’t think we get any sort of cutter with that setup.
 
I really love when patterns w/ a -EPO/+TNH & an active southern stream come calling because that's the general recipe you want to see for a southern slider. However timing is everything & even more paramount in a pattern like this. It can make the difference between being in the 70s and hitting the links vs having tons of white gold in your backyard.

This pattern almost always comes w/ a "side" of SE US/West Atlantic ridge, too much (or even too little) of a good thing can come back to bite you.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_28.png

Fwiw, here's the pattern about 2-3 days before the Jan 1988 event got going over the southern plains.
compday.rKYL7eqEDj.gif
 
I’ll take E5 please! That Euro 9 1/2 day out storm looks amazing on paper! 1043 high in NY, precip coming in, don’t like the low in TN, but not worried about details! Now we’re cooking with an air fryer, at best!FFC29576-5962-4186-A4C1-4B361F8B4C0B.png
 
For those interested, DTs winter outlook is out on FB, havnt read it yet
 
ForsythSnow said:
I still disagree as does the Euro. Nothing to see here IMO.
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I understand that you disagree, everyone has their different views. But considering the polar and STJ convergence, there's no doubt that something wintry is bound to happen. It could be minimal, but a quick shot at some heavy snow on the back side of the moisture is possible. Or it could be something significant, a wide coverage of a long duration of heavy snowfall. I do think that strong storm signal around the 15th or so may come up on the tail end of the boundary. We'll see how things shape up, still to early to "iron" out anything.

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Ollie Williams said:
I don't mind the euro's output, but I'm not a big fan, in comparison to the GEFS with the lack of heights around BC. Though neutral heights are better than negative heights.
View attachment 26914View attachment 26915
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This look on the EPS favors a lakes cutter and severe weather over the SE US, the GEFS obviously tends to wintry weather. I’ll be content with either
 
Webberweather53 said:
This look on the EPS favors a lakes cutter and severe weather over the SE US, the GEFS obviously tends to wintry weather. I’ll be content with either
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You know this ends up meeting in the middle. Decaying arctic air mass with the parent high going ots means a few people start as a few sleet pellets or snow flakes and go to rain quickly. That initial band of iso precip locks in the wedge, the tmb gets stuck east of 95 and most of nc is locked in at 34-40 with 850s of +10 so we get an elevated band of storms rolling through with areas SE of RDU making a last second push to 55-60

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