We’ve got a slight chance with that setup if we can thread the needle. I’m all-in until there’s nothing on 18z.
Hasn’t the GFS/GEFS been hinting at that being a possibility in that time period?
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Hasn’t the GFS/GEFS been hinting at that being a possibility in that time period?
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
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MichaelJ
Member
That is a great track for most states east of Alabama, temps are the unknown quantity though
Ok ladies and gents, I've moved a few post to whamby and the GW thread, please keep banter in banter and GW in GW, etc... it's been mentioned before just quote it and go over to that thread and insert the quote, it's really simple. Thank you
His map is the combo of actual month to date and forecast for the rest of the month.
Jessy89
Member
I hope someone posts the GEFs when it’s out.
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packfan98
Moderator
It’s out and free on pivotal weather.
Torch through 12/30 but then ends and is replaced by near normal or colder most of the rest of the run fwiw.
Edit: the run as a whole is slightly colder than prior runs for the SE US FWIW.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s actual temps plus GFS forecast from initialization thru day 7, which isn’t terrible on average and takes us thru the rest of the month
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.
It's not like the king is locked in on anything, who knows New Year might surprise yet. Of course no cold air around 
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I believe the pattern continues to support snow west of the blue ridge (Louisiana-Tennessee) but less to none in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a winter storm pop up in the extended for places like Mississippi/Alabama.
Looking very similar actually
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cut off upper lows are generally favored during +EPO/-TNH, the modoki El Niño that’s developing as we speak is helping in this regard. +EPO/-TNH are usually starved of cold air and rely on either preceding air masses or near the shoulder of the winter season when the wavelengths are short (mid Feb thru Mar) may be accompanied by significant cP air masses (relative to climo at that time of the year of course)
tennessee storm
Member
Get any cold air . Agree active southern stream for sure
I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
Euro might have been heading somewhere if it was able to run out a bit further
What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right nowHmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.