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Pattern The Great December Dump

Webberweather53 said:
Gonna be in Iowa for Christmas this year, average high this time of year up here is 30F, will be roughly 55F instead, so it’s basically like I never left NC at all. Also a chance of snow this weekend, I hope it happens because it’s probably the only snow I’ll see this season.

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The weekend system looks legit . Enjoy it , I’ll be in Des Moines / Johnston Iowa the 31st -5th . I’m sure it will be mid 50s with sun by then


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The new norm .....
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Sorry very IMBY post but....

I currently sit at -2 BN for December, curious if this stretch of warmth coming up will be enough to get me AN, gonna be close (Btw all this cancel winter talk and temps certainly aren't horrible at the end of EPS)

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metwannabe said:
Sorry very IMBY post but....

I currently sit at -2 BN for December, curious if this stretch of warmth coming up will be enough to get me AN, gonna be close (Btw all this cancel winter talk and temps certainly aren't horrible at the end of EPS)

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I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

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Webberweather53 said:
I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

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I'm -.8 imby, RDU is +.6 on the cf6 but the color scale on that map is like 1.5-2...ah the map is in C I guess

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SD said:
I'm -.8 imby, RDU is +.6 on the cf6 but the color scale on that map is like 1.5-2...ah the map is in C I guess

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This is also accounting for the warm up over the next week which is liable to send most of us to solidly above territory board wide
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah makes sense... I know not to use this map again, which obviously will look much different after next weeks warmth.

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Nothing wrong with this map it’s just that it uses a much warmer climatology than most commonly used 1981-2010 baseline. Shifting that base period to 1987-2016 and including those 6 warm-very warm Decembers from 2011-16 and excluding those in the 80s does in fact make that much of a difference in the perceived anomaly. I personally think the weatherbell one is a more accurate representation of the current base state because we’ve already become significantly warmer than 1981-2010, at least in December anyway.

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Webberweather53 said:
Nothing wrong with this map it’s just that it uses a much warmer climatology than most commonly used 1981-2010 baseline. Shifting that base period to 1987-2016 and including those 6 warm-very warm Decembers from 2011-16 and excluding those in the 80s does in fact make that much of a difference in the perceived anomaly. I personally think the weatherbell one is a more accurate representation of the current base state because we’ve already become significantly warmer than 1981-2010, at least in December anyway.

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At least we get to move to the 1991-2020 climatological base period soon, so our departures won’t look as bad in a couple years when compared to the warmer “normal”. :cool:
 
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