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Pattern The Great December Dump

Storm5 said:
I’m starting to think we should do away with them all together and just wake up everyday and look out the damn window and be surprised


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Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
 
GaWx said:
Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
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Looks like Fab February to me . That or last year repeat. I can hear the nervousness in his words.


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GaWx said:
Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
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biting my tongue and not touching a keyboard on that ...
 
NoSnowATL said:
Looks like Fab February to me . That or last year repeat. I can hear the nervousness in his words.


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The good news is that it is only 12/22 and we could still have a very Fab Jan despite today's bad trends. The models have been jumpy. So, why should we place that much importance on today's bad trends after the last two days of good trends?
 
It can sure look a whole lot worse than this cold map for 12/31:

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