We finally get high pressure in a favorable position and still get crapped on with a mega cutter..we can’t buy a fantasy storm ?
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
We finally get high pressure in a favorable position and still get crapped on with a mega cutter..we can’t buy a fantasy storm ?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That high is not in a favorable position. Needs to be over the Mid-west. to give us snow. I don't want another freezing rain event.
Cutters can actually be good, because they bring the cold in behind the fronts. And sometimes a trailing system can develop on the tail end of the boundary from a cutting storm while cold air is in place.We finally get high pressure in a favorable position and still get crapped on with a mega cutter..we can’t buy a fantasy stormView attachment 28802
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LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,290
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That doesn't happen very often and usually when a new storm forms off a boundary, the trough has already lifted outta here.
This GFS model you guys are referring to, Is it the same model that said (four times a day) for days, it wasn't gonna rain in NC with this system? Asking for a friend! 
Nothing good about cutters! Except can score Ice Storm in CAD areas sometimes.
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There could be a possible winter storm by the New Year or a few days before. Right now, models don't show any winter storm developing during that time. However, we'll need to watch this positive tilt trough on the tail end of the cutting system that cuts during the 27th - 29th time window. If a storm system does develop on the tail end, it would put the impact window between the 30th/31st or New Years Day. Right now, confidence is low for anything to develop on the tail end of the boundary, but the possibility is there. We'll see how this evolves over the coming days.
I'd like to see more separation with this though, but not too much. If no separation, the S/W would shear out and nothing would develop on the tail end of the cutting system. If something is going to happen with this, we should start to see it on the models anytime now. This time window isn't too far out, plenty of time to watch this.
I'd like to see more separation with this though, but not too much. If no separation, the S/W would shear out and nothing would develop on the tail end of the cutting system. If something is going to happen with this, we should start to see it on the models anytime now. This time window isn't too far out, plenty of time to watch this.tennessee storm
Member
looks way to warm at the moment for winter storm to develop ... I see a big cutter around new years time frame
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Yes, the storm during the 27th - 29th will likely cut. What I'm saying is, a low pressure may develop on the tail end of that cutting system. If so, the low would probably not cut due to a PV anomaly pushing southeast during the 30th behind the system that cuts. So, there will likely not be a eastern ridge during the last few days of this month into the New Year. It could just be cold and dry, or there could be a system that sneaks in during the colder time window, during the last few days of this month or by the New Year. I don't want to speculate on it too much right now because it may not turn out to be anything. Just watching it for now.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Strong pacific jet inundating the entire continent with mild pacific air, & a very meh airmass/E US trough. Yawn
If you want something cool to happen, amplify and retrograde the ridge over the Rockies
Make it stop
If you haven’t looked at the 00z GFS, don’t
And on that note, folks: if you have not done so yet, please don't look at the 0Z GEFS. Just go directly to bed. Do not pass the 0Z GFS. Just go directly to bed. Night night!
Considering I'm still waiting on him to be right, it doesn't concern me.
As wrong as it is, it really isn't too bad.
Brent
Member
I'm trying not to.. its never right
tennessee storm
Member
Really not that good either unfortunately...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gonna be in Iowa for Christmas this year, average high this time of year up here is 30F, will be roughly 55F instead, so it’s basically like I never left NC at all. Also a chance of snow this weekend, I hope it happens because it’s probably the only snow I’ll see this season.
tennessee storm
Member
Wow. Unreal