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Pattern The Great December Dump

GaWx said:
Updated MJO forecasts:

0Z GEFS:
View attachment 28780

0Z EPS:

View attachment 28781
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And this is the January Phase 7 composite
ea151e09c06f874456797229f73c78d8.jpg



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Rain Cold said:
Do you (or anyone) know when the last big SE winter storm overrunning event was? I feel like we talk about it every year and say several times that X upcoming system is going to be an overrunning event. But I don't remember when the last good one actually was.
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I’d certainly contend that for a majority of the board it was Jan 28-29 2014.
 
I mean some of that longer range stuff looks good on precip maps like maybe we’re just a wiggle away from a banger, but MSLP is being dominated by low pressure..so it’s really not that close..but who knows, maybe we are just a wiggle away..but maybe not
 
KyloG said:
As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

View attachment 28752
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We haven’t seen a big vortex like that over Alaska persist for any considerable period of time since 2011-12 which was obviously a big torch but a Nina with a weak STJ. That TPV is the biggest wildcard in this pattern imo with tropical forcing evolution being a somewhat distant 2nd.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea for North Carolina.


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True as ATL storm stats are not the same as NC storm stats, but it has been a cool phase on average in January for all the SE as Jon showed, especially when the amplitude isn’t high. Of course, we don’t want it to backtrack to phase 6. Hopefully the GEFS is wrong.

But here are some non-MJO problems to consider:

-NAO, when are you ever going to return?

1577037217508.gif

And -AO, are you leaving us in early January (keep in mind GEFS has a -AO bias, which makes early January prospects look even worse):

1577037417289.gif

The silver lining is that the Arctic may finally have a chance to get down to near or, perish the thought, maybe even colder than normal in early January if this AO prediction is right!
 
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Rain Cold said:
Do you (or anyone) know when the last big SE winter storm overrunning event was? I feel like we talk about it every year and say several times that X upcoming system is going to be an overrunning event. But I don't remember when the last good one actually was.
Click to expand...
2014 for us

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Webberweather53 said:
We haven’t seen a big vortex like that over Alaska persist for any considerable period of time since 2011-12 which was obviously a big torch but a Nina with a weak STJ. That TPV is the biggest wildcard in this pattern imo with tropical forcing evolution being a somewhat distant 2nd.
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Forgot about that one. Jan 07 popped in my mind, nino too.

17C742EA-B781-42DA-963E-7FB3A531A9A6.gif9073B5B0-960C-4DC6-A6AC-537A57066819.png
 
Wasn't February 2014 also overrunning? Although y'all have me looking at reanalysis again and it does look like a southern slider, just as a major CAD storm in spots.

To make this more on topic, I don't like that the MJO is looking like it's going to try to screw us over, although I know it will likely change tomorrow.

Edit: To add on, December 2017 affected several people but it was not "quite" a board wider. I THINK the last true board wider was 2/12/14, unless it didn't affect NC as much as the rest of the states.
 
KyloG said:
Forgot about that one. Jan 07 popped in my mind, nino too.

View attachment 28786View attachment 28787
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Best we can hope for is either this TPV retrogrades in later forecasts all the way to NE Siberia & helps disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and or returns to the Baffin Bay again. Either solution could entice the -EPO to become prominent and ACWB in the NE Pacific, the in between solution which is what we currently see, is the worst possible outcome wrt the TPV.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Best we can hope for is either this TPV retrogrades in later forecasts all the way to NE Siberia & helps disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and or returns to the Baffin Bay again. Either solution could entice the -EPO to become prominent and ACWB in the NE Pacific, the in between solution which is what we currently see, is the worst possible outcome wrt the TPV.
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Was not expecting the tPV to start off Jan in that position. A real kick in the groin.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Wasn't February 2014 also overrunning? Although y'all have me looking at reanalysis again and it does look like a southern slider, just as a major CAD storm in spots.

To make this more on topic, I don't like that the MJO is looking like it's going to try to screw us over, although I know it will likely change tomorrow.

Edit: To add on, December 2017 affected several people but it was not "quite" a board wider. I THINK the last true board wider was 2/12/14, unless it didn't affect NC as much as the rest of the states.
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Just looking at the SE US, @pcbjr didn't benefit from 2/12/14 and @WeatherDawg87 in far south GA may not have either. Also, yours truly didn't. The last true SE board wider outside of NC was 1/18/1977. Of course, the Jan of 1985 extreme cold wave was arguably the greatest winter event since Feb of 1899 although that's for temps as most got no more than light wintry precip. and some got none.

Edit: 2/12/2010 came very close but JAX/GNV didn't quite get wintry as they had a cold rain.
2/25-6/1914 was very close, too.

Edit again: 3/13/1993 was very close, too, since JAX got a T but Phil just missed as well as Fayetteville, NC and other parts of E NC missing.

Another edit: thanks to John, I'll add early Feb of 1996 to the list of very close calls as it looks like most of N FL just missed wintry precip. However, in terms of great cold waves, this one hit everyone, indeed. @pcbjr's homestead got down to 18!!
 
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GaWx said:
Just looking at the SE US, @pcbjr didn't benefit from 2/12/14 and @WeatherDawg87 in far south GA may not have either. Also, yours truly didn't. The last true SE board wider outside of NC was 1/18/1977. Of course, the Jan of 1985 extreme cold wave was arguably the greatest winter event since Feb of 1899 although that's for temps as most got no more than light wintry precip. and some got none.
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February 1st-4th 1996 was a widespread winter storm for a lot of the Southeast. I know Arkansas, Louisiana, Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina at least was affected, but not sure how much Southern Ga/SC/Eastern NC was affected. Dalton, Ga reports .89 precip with a high of 19 February 3rd 1996, but is of course missing data on snowfall. I know it was icy for a lot of the southern and eastern areas. Tennessee into Kentucky/Virginia had 6-20 inches of snow. Very cold temps followed as well, rivaled 1985 in areas.
 
GaWx said:
Just looking at the SE US, @pcbjr didn't benefit from 2/12/14 and @WeatherDawg87 in far south GA may not have either. Also, yours truly didn't. The last true SE board wider outside of NC was 1/18/1977. Of course, the Jan of 1985 extreme cold wave was arguably the greatest winter event since Feb of 1899 although that's for temps as most got no more than light wintry precip. and some got none.

Edit: 2/12/2010 came very close but JAX/GNV didn't quite get wintry as they had a cold rain.
2/25/1914 was very close, too.
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Whatever I get (and yes it does and can happen) is by the grace of God ... just hoping most of the folks here get their wish (for many reasons, not the least of which is sanity ... o_O) ... but frankly, I'm just hoping my Magic 8 Ball and Crystal Ball are not in the Hogtown recycle pit in February ... :cool:
 
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