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Pattern The Great December Dump

This run of the Gfs should have nobody feeling any sort of way but excited. The robust amount of blocking and cold shots is quite incredible with many opportunities for a storm to get going for sure. Volatility seems to be the theme that will show up in the pattern and its for cold and storminess
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This run of the Gfs should have nobody feeling any sort of way but excited. The robust amount of blocking and cold shots is quite incredible with many opportunities for a storm to get going for sure. Volatility seems to be the theme that will show up in the pattern and its for cold and storminess
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Maybe not so much blocking but strong and persistent PNA ridging
 
Thank goodness that trough is there over the Lakes. Our big TPV also decides to camp out in Alaska on this EPS run, triggering a huge +EPO that floods much of the continent w/ mild air. We could still technically score in this kind of pattern but verbatim it's not a good look overall. As mentioned yesterday, the evolution of this TPV and subseasonal tropical forcing are the 2 big wild cards going forward, if said TPV were to migrate towards Alaska instead of staying closer to the Baffin Bay, that would completely destroy my notion for more poleward ridging in the NE Pacific in the longer term.

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As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

EPStrends.gif
 
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KyloG said:
As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

View attachment 28752
Click to expand...
Lower heights near the urals, higher heights near the aleutians, less of a mechanism to push the tpv into Canada so it stays put. Meh. Is it concerning? Sure. Is it something that can easily start going the other way? Yes.

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KyloG said:
As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

View attachment 28752
Click to expand...

I really don't find that image that concerning. The PV still looks to be trending southward. That deep trough over Alaska should dive southward while rotating around the PV. The biggest issue I see is the weaker Aluetian low.
 
I am not real concerned yet about January. There is an increase presently of a blow up of thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Indian Ocean (hence the predicted Christmas warm up) which drives the MJO into the warmer phases but it appears to be very short lived. As long as the heavier precip builds and stays in the WEO instead of the EIO, we will tend to get into the cold phases (8,1,2). This will tend to pump up the ridge in Western Canada and dive a trough into the East as a result. Last year the opposite happened, the heaviest thunderstorm activity stayed mainly in the EIO and led to the trough setting up in the West and pumping our beloved SER in the East. There are other factors of course, like where the western ridge sets up, where the PV locates and whether or not we have a stratospheric warming or not but it is tough for us to get cold when the MJO resides in 4,5,6.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Looking this far out on models is hardly very informative. There will be an entirely different solution at 12z and the whole narrative could change.


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Bingo.

We seem to forget the modeling has done horribly this month outside of day 10. I can hardly trust Day 14-15 eps runs...if I still see it trending badly by Day 10 then yeah that’s a problem.

We have followed patterns this year that modeling has been extremely wrong on — just go look through the pattern thread and double check the verification. Nothing at this juncture to make me worry unless we lose the -EPO signal on multiple models.


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There’s cold shot after cold shot. No moisture moving in while it’s cold. Not even a fantasy storm


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I hope the more knowledgeable ones are right. Cant help but notice the similarities to last year. Torched up until mid October and flipped cold until mid December last year when a Pac puke pattern set in and ruined the whole winter. Only difference is this year we waited a week or so to flip to Pac puke. Sure it could be wrong, but the EPS looks just like what we had last year to start Jan.
 
MichaelJ said:
I am not real concerned yet about January. There is an increase presently of a blow up of thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Indian Ocean (hence the predicted Christmas warm up) which drives the MJO into the warmer phases but it appears to be very short lived. As long as the heavier precip builds and stays in the WEO instead of the EIO, we will tend to get into the cold phases (8,1,2). This will tend to pump up the ridge in Western Canada and dive a trough into the East as a result. Last year the opposite happened, the heaviest thunderstorm activity stayed mainly in the EIO and led to the trough setting up in the West and pumping our beloved SER in the East. There are other factors of course, like where the western ridge sets up, where the PV locates and whether or not we have a stratospheric warming or not but it is tough for us to get cold when the MJO resides in 4,5,6.
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Michael, sounds very similar to what bastardi said in his video yesterday. He makes sense though.
 
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