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Pattern The Great December Dump

MichaelJ said:
I am not real concerned yet about January. There is an increase presently of a blow up of thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Indian Ocean (hence the predicted Christmas warm up) which drives the MJO into the warmer phases but it appears to be very short lived. As long as the heavier precip builds and stays in the WEO instead of the EIO, we will tend to get into the cold phases (8,1,2). This will tend to pump up the ridge in Western Canada and dive a trough into the East as a result. Last year the opposite happened, the heaviest thunderstorm activity stayed mainly in the EIO and led to the trough setting up in the West and pumping our beloved SER in the East. There are other factors of course, like where the western ridge sets up, where the PV locates and whether or not we have a stratospheric warming or not but it is tough for us to get cold when the MJO resides in 4,5,6.
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guess ifs and buts were candy n nutts, everyday would be Christmas...this pattern in the pacific is one hot mess, going be tough get it on the right track to produce a true ridge west....
 
Jessy89 said:
There’s cold shot after cold shot. No moisture moving in while it’s cold. Not even a fantasy storm


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There can be cold shots after cold shots and the best pattern in the world and still not end up with nothing. I'm not trying to be negative, it's just one of the truths. A snow storm can occur with marginal conditions, a severe cold pattern doesn't necessarily need to be in place for a snow storm in the south.

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Ok this does concern me, 540 line and no snow, saw this last winter.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png
 
Why post the long range GFS operational? It’s horrible outside of Day 7, maybe, and that’s a stretch.

Here’s the last 4 runs centered ~Day 13. Does it look like it has any clue of the dominate pattern over the CONUS?
b1efa75b1ad147ebe037e57f0021604c.gif



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Jessy89 said:
There’s cold shot after cold shot. No moisture moving in while it’s cold. Not even a fantasy storm


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I wouldn't worry about moisture at this point, moisture will not be the problem. Let's get the cold first then worry about moisture after. I know your frustration when looking at these model runs but have little patience and try not to let these long range runs get you down
 
RollTide18 said:
Ok this does concern me, 540 line and no snow, saw this last winter.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png
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The 540 line is the 50/50 line, so it's not always accurate depicting p-type/freezing line. I still have interest during the New Year for something wintry to happen.

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Let’s just pretend this idea is right for the sake of debate since the American model is at least insistent on leaving a piece of energy in the SW for an extended period of time. Iff we are able to get that vortex to dive down and lower heights over the EC, how do we get that thing to kick for an overrunning event?4DD01241-A782-41A1-B47D-60A01961F039.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Let’s just pretend this idea is right for the sake of debate since the American model is at least insistent on leaving a piece of energy in the SW for an extended period of time. Iff we are able to get that vortex to dive down and lower heights over the EC, how do we get that thing to kick for an overrunning event?View attachment 28778
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Do you (or anyone) know when the last big SE winter storm overrunning event was? I feel like we talk about it every year and say several times that X upcoming system is going to be an overrunning event. But I don't remember when the last good one actually was.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you (or anyone) know when the last big SE winter storm overrunning event was? I feel like we talk about it every year and say several times that X upcoming system is going to be an overrunning event. But I don't remember when the last good one actually was.
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great question..2011? Not to mention MSLP was hot garbage for that frame I showed, but let’s not
get bogged down in details ?
 
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