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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah I’m 90% sure the one that spins for a day or two and kicks in the first 100 hours of the 12z GFS was once there for 2 weeks straight earlier last week
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They are tricky to predict but they always rear their ugly head at some point .. could end up being the wildcard that saves us from too much warmth and even be what brings us the goods
 
+PNA really saved that run from being a dumpster fire, but no -EPO, no -NAO or -AO 9A25E5C7-F7E5-48D6-972D-41C81F8326E7.png
 
98e2391970a3fb55de72807a72a7aaef.jpg


At least we have something in fantasy range


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Sorry but this is just pathetic that Denver will go snowless in December for the first time in 113 years. At least most of the nation is with us when it’s usually just the s/e. 2A91EDD4-DAB9-4D6B-B491-1D9B8EEA59B6.jpeg
 
CADEffect said:
In this case it does....


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No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
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I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
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Tropospheric temperatures have risen due to greenhouse gases selectively absorbing and re-emitting outgoing IR towards the surface. The consequent cooling in the stratosphere is a signature of tropospheric greenhouse gases blocking outgoing long wave IR (heat) from reaching the stratosphere (thereby cooling it) (this is also more formally known as the “blocking effect”), there’s also a significant contribution from anthropogenic CFCs and HCFCs that destroy ozone & hence cool the stratosphere
 
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