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Pattern The Great December Dump

GaWx said:
Yeah, even this kind of thing (a modeled deep SE/coastal snowstorm) isn't seen too often. Usually no more than a couple of times a winter at most even on the drunk GFS. But to see it modeled blizzardlike like this with this very strong low winding up? You can go years in between something like this just being modeled just once.

How often has something like this actually occurred (deep SE/coastal near blizzard) including N FL? It would be a once a multidecadal type storm or even rarer than that. It does kind of look like a more wound up version of 1989. Looking at history for windy, blizzardlike storms with several inch+ accumulations way down in the deep SE/coast including N FL, 1989, 1899, and 1800 are the ones that first come to mind. The great 1/1922 and 2/1914 ZR/IP storms were NOT this wound up (unless I'm remembering the maps wrong) and they didn't quite reach into JAX/GNV. 2/1973 did give JAX a little bit but it wasn't this wound up.
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It would be fun to track. Thats for sure. I love historic storms.
 
Hmmm 12k nam going with mid 40s Christmas day...its a bold strategy cotton
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SD said:
Hmmm 12k nam going with mid 40s Christmas day...its a bold strategy cotton
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It's been doing that for the last couple of days. Probably just on crack. It's a good 10 degrees colder than most other models. But other models have cooled somewhat (3-5 degrees) the past few runs.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
RNK, don't buy it, They going low 60s here Christmas day! Hope there're wrong.
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GFS and Euro both showing low 50's tomorrow now and both NAM's upper 40's to low 50's. Might feel like Christmas after all around here tomorrow. Thank the good Lord for backdoor cold fronts

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metwannabe said:
The NAM is not backing down on temps tomorrow, some clouds a N/NE breeze... maybe
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Yeah, it looks like folks that get under some clouds will be the coolest. RAH now acknowledging this:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1023 AM Tuesday... Synoptic scale ridging and associated subsidence will overspread the region from the west as the deep layer cyclone off the SE US coast continues to move offshore, away from the region. Resultant wall- wall sunshine will result in mild temps today, ranging from upper 50s across the NE to lower/mid 60s SW. Lingering pressure gradient will result in some occasional NE gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range from late morning and into the afternoon. A weak, dry back-door cold front across north VA/DC will settle south into the area late this afternoon/this evening. The NAM continues to suggest that the reinforced NELY low-level flow behind the front will support the development of an area of stratus/low clouds from the Chesapeake Bay region swwd across the NC Coastal Plain, mainly along and east of I-95. Otherwise, other than some fleeting thin cirrus spilling across the area, skies will be mostly clear. The renewed cP surface ridging will otherwise yield low temperatures mostly in the lwr to mid 30s. &&
 
Gfs doing gfs things with that cut off near the SW us/Baja, terrible weather model
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What do you mean Gfs bias is to spit those out too fast .. euros bias is to hold them back ... regardless a great look that’s only 190 hours out now ...
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Gfs has been notorious with holding back upper level lows past hour 200 around the SW, just ask @Jimmy Hypocracy , lol
 
maybe that trough on the gfs can go negative tilt in the eastern US ?
 
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