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Misc Summer Sizzlin Whamby Thread

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And this is too much
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Looks like the CFS monthly has already nailed temperatures for January 2020. Lol.View attachment 20034

Based on SE winters since 2000-01, there's a 2 out of 3 chance that one of DJF will have warm anomalies at least this large (say an average of 4+ warmer than normal) and 1 in 6 chance that 2 of DJF will be at least this warm. So, this is a very reasonable forecast for Jan and there's no reason to not believe it has a decent chance even though this is looking out 7 months on a shooty model making it no better than the equivlent of a wild guess. Nevertheless, I'm getting ready for the seemingly ever-present winter hype from the usual suspects like JB, who along with the Euro and other models had one of the worst, if not THE worst, SE winter forecast I've ever seen in 2018-9. JB has had so many opportunities to make a warm forecast since 2000-1 and score a win but he never seems to be able to do so. Blown opportunities due to bias.
 
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Based on SE winters since 2000-01, there's a 2 out of 3 chance that one of DJF will have warm anomalies at least this large (say an average of 4+ warmer than normal) and 1 in 6 chance that 2 of DJF will be at least this warm. So, this is a very reasonable forecast for Jan and there's no reason to not believe it has a decent chance even though this is looking out 7 months on a shooty model making it no better than the equivlent of a wild guess. Nevertheless, I'm getting ready for the seemingly ever-present winter hype from the usual suspects like JB, who along with the Euro and other models had one of the worst, if not THE worst, SE winter forecast I've ever seen in 2018-9. JB has had so many opportunities to make a warm forecast since 2000-1 and score a win but he never seems to be able to do so. Blown opportunities due to bias.

Yep, JB hits the cold button every time, this is his mind before winter
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It seems like we get more summer "wet patterns" now then we used to. Seems like there aren't a lot of days with widely spaced, tiny pop-up storms anymore. It is either totally dry or there are multi-day, widespread rain events.

I hate rainy summers. I want hot and dry, with just tiny pop-up storms. Throw in a tropical storm every once in a while.
 
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