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Misc Stock Market

SPX closes up a half of a percent with the equal-weighted version of it being even better, but man was that an irritating session.

And I don't think tomorrow is going to be any better pre-Fed, so the plan for me probably should be to just sign out of looking at anything and study at 10:30 AM for my final "final" for the year.

I really think it could've done better, but NQ was getting whacked on every single attempt.
 
Storm5 said:
Record quarter grew 71 year over year


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That was an insane earnings but its not getting the love I had hoped....let's see tomorrow.
 
Storm5 said:
What time is fed announcement?


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1pm EST I thought and than Powell does his presser at 2pm....tomorrow going to be nuts. If he comes out and says 0.50bps and guides to multiple 50bps I am not sure how the market can hold up.
 
?



Since analogs don't have to work to a T, maybe this is the pathway:

- This is a good week.

- Pullback on Monday/Tuesday next week out of fear of the inflation report.

- Then CPI comes out and although headline is still bad because of the food/fuel issues, the market reacts to core CPI stripped instead (core CPI stripped was so bad in April last year that there is next to no chance it's beaten on a MoM basis), which catches people off balance and leads to the overall path getting thrown off for a third time, with it maybe sticking for a bit longer than a month.

I'm really not sure about the first pointer yet though. The VIX closing below 30 is supposed to be bullish return wise, but this year there's been times where it's turned out that the VIX has just been pounded for cheaper puts for the big guys.

And Bitcoin did poorly today, which can be a signal.
 
Q's it's all about $320 or $316...got rejected multiple times at $320 today...

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Short a little AMD at $98.70. That should be stout resistance. ?‍♂️

D2522D13-EA26-4143-BC4D-BF2D67BA46BA.jpeg
 
Would be nice if the feds kicked the can and did nothing tomorrow . The market would rally so hard . I know they won't do that but it's fun to think about


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Storm5 said:
Would be nice if the feds kicked the can and did nothing tomorrow . The market would rally so hard . I know they won't do that but it's fun to think about


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They look like complete idiots and they know it…I imagine they are going to want to change that narrative.
 
Nothing but negative news. Blah

www.wsj.com

Stocks and Bonds Are Falling in Lockstep at Pace Unseen in Decades

Bonds have long been advertised as offering strong returns and hedging against the expected swings in stocks. That hedge has evaporated this year.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

www.cnbc.com

'Bubble' hitting 50% of market, top investor warns as Fed gets ready to meet

Despite Monday's market comeback, Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein Advisors' deputy CIO, delivers growth stocks are in the early innings of a dramatic decline.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

www.cnbc.com

Paul Tudor Jones says he can't think of a worse financial environment for stocks or bonds right now

Paul Tudor Jones said the environment for investors is worse than ever as the Fed is raising rates when financial conditions have become increasingly tight.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
superjames1992 said:
Figure the rate hike will be 50 basis points and we rip tomorrow, but I don’t feel confident enough to trade it.
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50bps is a given....and the Fed guiding to 50bps is a given. The bigger question is how fast will they start QT and how big it will be. How is the bond market going to respond with trillion's coming off the Fed's balance sheet.
 
My goodness...option flow for SPX. Market seems confidant that Jay is going to save us...?‍♂️

Haven't done anything today...closed AMD calls at open, and still carrying Q's puts from yesterday.


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I think 50 bps to go to a target rate of 75-100 bps, and the QT program that was proposed in the Fed minutes in mid-March could cause a pop...do I expect what happened in mid-March though...no.

But part of me thinks that we're going to see a bit of a surprise. It would only explain everything with the past couple weeks. That surprise doesn't have to be no pushback on 75 bps either or a 75 bps hike today.
 
I am about 30% in my long term accounts but will use that to buy some dips in SPY/Q's if we see a capitulation selloff today after the FOMC. Would want to pick up Q/SPY below $310/$410 respectively.

I may pick up some positions in swing account later today. I do expect a rally unless the FOMC notes are horrific...which I can't imagine what that could be. Maybe if they did 50bps and said 75bps is probable in June with QT starting in June.
 
Textbook bear flag in Tesla....I don't like shorting Tesla as Elon will literally tweet anything to pump the stock.

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Google/AMD/NVDA/NFLX/FB and many many others have all broken key levels this year....MSFT/Apple are the last 2 standing. Apple broke it the other day but they yanked it up....MSFT had great earnings but by no means is it cheap. These can't break there key pivots and market rally...but they could underperform and market rally with other beat names pushing higher.

Screen Shot 2022-05-04 at 11.44.23 AM.pngScreen Shot 2022-05-04 at 11.44.30 AM.png
 
I really am not a fan of the VIX acting like this.

It being flat to down suggests that this has just been some good ole' selling out of fear and means we're underhedged for FOMC.

If we do see a surprise, then boom.

It may be for the better though, because we've had issues finding demand. Maybe we see a panic flush today and instead of a day like the recent Fridays...bounce hard on Friday.
 
Amazon has a massive gap from around 2650 - 2900 . Any positive news and it moves into the gap zone


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I added $NVDA at $191 and AMD shares at $92.60. Semi's have had strong earnings. Just swings.
 
Feels very trappy but these trendlines are usually good...

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So if the past is any indication, the initial move after the FOMC will be a fake out by MMers to screw over retail. So if we dump right away, we should buy calls. If we pump right away, we should buy puts. In reality, MMers might not fake us out this time so I’ll be wrong again. So I’ll probably just do nothing.
 
The S&P has now been a percent off the lows of today's session before Powell even speaks...I'm sure that's gonna work out positively...

I actually don't smell a somebody knows something here. I smell a shorts are just stepping aside deal.
 
0DTE 425c going for $0.40. Hmm. Could be a lotto play. Way out of the money, though, so probably not a good idea.
 
Was really hoping for a big down move into mins but we getting the opposite. Tough to chase if this gaps and goes at 2pm.

Still holding $310 puts and AMD/NVDA shares I added earlier. ?‍♂️
 
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