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Misc Stock Market

GeorgiaGirl said:
I thought I was clear with my earlier comment with my opinion about what happens with the Fed...

I think 7 hikes is bogus. But it's bogus for a bad reason here. Whatever the Fed does end up doing, it's going to combine with what oil and commodities are doing, and let's say we do see a 1% FFR (as I implied). It'll be similar to a 2.5-3% FFR in overall effect.

I don't think they'll make it clear that they're going to do 4 hikes. They'll go "due to the uncertainty in the economy, after this 25 bps hike at this meeting, we're going to go into wait and see mode." And then what's likely to happen later is that credit markets will buckle and unless they decide to stand down (which if they do stand down about credit markets buckling, it would be a big surprise, even if the inflation situation says they should), they'll cave.

I thought once the tough comps came off, inflation would come down, but now I think what's likely to happen is commodities are going to be sticky for a very long time, but the demand side is going to get completely and thoroughly pummeled because of this, because we're at the point of no return here.

It's a bad situation.

Anyway...

I doubt this week's lows have traded, even including the afterhours. I think the overall market pauses again and sees relief when the Dow prints 31800...probably in 2 days at this point, but this is at the very least going to be one head and shoulders pattern that finally plays out for the S&P (there is also an inverse head and shoulders, but that's not going to be what plays out).

My question is do we react again to CPI if the market is completely hammered into the number, which seems likely to me (the thing that's awful here is that this CPI print already isn't very meaningful for me due to events in Eastern Europe). Maybe we sell off tomorrow, sell off Wednesday, then gap down hard and reverse on Thursday.
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What does this even mean?
 
I get my bonus on Friday. Opportunity to YOLO it all next week? ?

But actually I’m trying to save up for a house in the next year or two, so I’ll probably just put it in my savings account so it can get burned up by double-digit inflation.
 
Broken024 said:
What does this even mean?
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The TL/DR version of this:

1. Inflation is bad. And outside of oil possibly settling down in the future, I'd get used to a lot of the price raises sticking unless the Fed found the guts to allow a deep recession to occur to fix prices.

2. We are going to crash into Thursday this week. Maybe print 3960 on a Thursday gap down capitulation bar.
 
superjames1992 said:
I get my bonus on Friday. Opportunity to YOLO it all next week? ?

But actually I’m trying to save up for a house in the next year or two, so I’ll probably just put it in my savings account so it can get burned up by double-digit inflation.
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Hard place to be right now. House prices are going up but who knows when it will slow down or even reverse like back in 2008. I bonds are an option for savings.
 
Broken024 said:
Hard place to be right now. House prices are going up but who knows when it will slow down or even reverse like back in 2008. I bonds are an option for savings.
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Good point on I-bonds. Have to lock up the money for a year, though, right?

I wouldn’t mind a housing crash, though that will also crash the economy… ?
 
superjames1992 said:
Good point on I-bonds. Have to lock up the money for a year, though, right?

I wouldn’t mind a housing crash, though that will also crash the economy… ?
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Yea if it's money you don't need for a year a guaranteed 7% return isn't bad (looks great now).

Agree on housing crash even as someone with a house. This isn't sustainable.. I would hate to rent the house I own (1.5k difference between my mortgage and rent per month).
 
superjames1992 said:
I get my bonus on Friday. Opportunity to YOLO it all next week? ?

But actually I’m trying to save up for a house in the next year or two, so I’ll probably just put it in my savings account so it can get burned up by double-digit inflation.
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I get my bonus on Friday too!
 
Broken024 said:
Yea if it's money you don't need for a year a guaranteed 7% return isn't bad (looks great now).

Agree on housing crash even as someone with a house. This isn't sustainable.. I would hate to rent the house I own (1.5k difference between my mortgage and rent per month).
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Good point. I might look into that. I guess it just depends what timeframe I’m looking at for the house. My lease runs through May 2023, so if I’m trying to find a house before that I’d probably need to be getting the money out around this time next year, or earlier for flexibility. Might push out the purchase another year to 2024, though, who knows….I’m really in no rush to own a home, but my apartment complex tried to raise my rent by 15% this year, which floored me. I negotiated it down to single digits, but I am afraid they’re going to do the same again next year, and then at that point I might as well just be paying a mortgage if I’m going to be spending such a massive sum on rent, anyways.

Maybe my crypto will go to the moon, and I can cash that out for a downpayment, but it’s not looking so good recently. ? Not super hopeful about crypto now as coupled with the broader stock market as it seems to be, as I don’t have high hopes for stocks this year.
 
superjames1992 said:
Good point. I might look into that. I guess it just depends what timeframe I’m looking at for the house. My lease runs through May 2023, so if I’m trying to find a house before that I’d probably need to be getting the money out around this time next year, or earlier for flexibility. Might push out the purchase another year to 2024, though, who knows….I’m really in no rush to own a home, but my apartment complex tried to raise my rent by 15% this year, which floored me. I negotiated it down to single digits, but I am afraid they’re going to do the same again next year, and then at that point I might as well just be paying a mortgage if I’m going to be spending such a massive sum on rent, anyways.

Maybe my crypto will go to the moon, and I can cash that out for a downpayment, but it’s not looking so good recently. ? Not super hopeful about crypto now as coupled with the broader stock market as it seems to be, as I don’t have high hopes for stocks this year.
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Good luck. It'll be interesting what happens over the next few years in real estate market. Can't comment on crypto.. I made a few hundred on doggy coin and moved on.
 
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