$315 was double bottom last May and than mid Feb we had the $318 low. So that area will be a battleground and if that fails it’s $300.
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Storm5
Member
SPY is going to be very tough to trade I think....The $410-$420 range was very choppy last April-June until it finally broke out.
And you can see the gap up from $398 to $405 last March/April. Volume is very thin in that area.
Any expectations for CPI Thursday? I’m thinking it might be brutal.
Yet we're still many percent off the highs.
I only lost $198 today. Jimmy is still well positioned to lose more
GeorgiaGirl
Member
We will most likely see 4 rate raises at the absolute most this year.
Oil prices and negative wealth effect are going to combine and be as good as a Fed funds rate at 250 bps even though 4 rate raises are likely the most that we see.
I have more that I can talk about, but it’ll likely come tonight.
Oil prices and negative wealth effect are going to combine and be as good as a Fed funds rate at 250 bps even though 4 rate raises are likely the most that we see.
I have more that I can talk about, but it’ll likely come tonight.
Storm5
Member
Lol this will send us in a free fall if this is true . Just the news of countries cutting back will send oil through the roof . Even good fed news wouldn't offset this
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severestorm
Member
Russia beating them to the punchLol this will send us in a free fall if this is true . Just the news of countries cutting back will send oil through the roof . Even good fed news wouldn't offset this
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That's a great point that can't be understated. A big dip like this (and I know it may still get much bigger) is potentially a great opportunity for longterm investors who have a lot of cash on the sidelines and have been reluctant to first invest in stocks or add to what they already have during the recent amazing bull market. I still say that some form of dollar cost averaging or nibbling would be the wisest way to do this to protect against further big drops. That way further big dips could be used to one's advantage.
Any NG that Russia halts through Nord Stream would likely mean new opportunities for the US NG industry, specifically via further increases in US LNG exports to Europe. This would likely lead to at least some US NG price increase, of course. But if one is invested in those US NG companies, they might do well.
severestorm
Member
Wheat is breaking records today
pcbjr
Member
Hmmm ... we got some thinkin' ta do, Lucy ...
Storm5
Member
Big tech finally starting to break down .
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No snow for you
Member
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Yep. I saw a research report In January that said we hit peak profitably in data centers. Would make sense as that is the big profit center for big cap tech.
We could still salvage the week with a reversal tomorrow. Decent chance of that, particularly if the new sanction package are less severe than expected, which is almost a certainty.
However, GG is set to release her commentary later on, so we'll wait for that before deciding!
However, GG is set to release her commentary later on, so we'll wait for that before deciding!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I thought I was clear with my earlier comment with my opinion about what happens with the Fed...
I think 7 hikes is bogus. But it's bogus for a bad reason here. Whatever the Fed does end up doing, it's going to combine with what oil and commodities are doing, and let's say we do see a 1% FFR (as I implied). It'll be similar to a 2.5-3% FFR in overall effect.
I don't think they'll make it clear that they're going to do 4 hikes. They'll go "due to the uncertainty in the economy, after this 25 bps hike at this meeting, we're going to go into wait and see mode." And then what's likely to happen later is that credit markets will buckle and unless they decide to stand down (which if they do stand down about credit markets buckling, it would be a big surprise, even if the inflation situation says they should), they'll cave.
I thought once the tough comps came off, inflation would come down, but now I think what's likely to happen is commodities are going to be sticky for a very long time, but the demand side is going to get completely and thoroughly pummeled because of this, because we're at the point of no return here.
It's a bad situation.
Anyway...
I doubt this week's lows have traded, even including the afterhours. I think the overall market pauses again and sees relief when the Dow prints 31800...probably in 2 days at this point, but this is at the very least going to be one head and shoulders pattern that finally plays out for the S&P (there is also an inverse head and shoulders, but that's not going to be what plays out).
My question is do we react again to CPI if the market is completely hammered into the number, which seems likely to me (the thing that's awful here is that this CPI print already isn't very meaningful for me due to events in Eastern Europe). Maybe we sell off tomorrow, sell off Wednesday, then gap down hard and reverse on Thursday.
I think 7 hikes is bogus. But it's bogus for a bad reason here. Whatever the Fed does end up doing, it's going to combine with what oil and commodities are doing, and let's say we do see a 1% FFR (as I implied). It'll be similar to a 2.5-3% FFR in overall effect.
I don't think they'll make it clear that they're going to do 4 hikes. They'll go "due to the uncertainty in the economy, after this 25 bps hike at this meeting, we're going to go into wait and see mode." And then what's likely to happen later is that credit markets will buckle and unless they decide to stand down (which if they do stand down about credit markets buckling, it would be a big surprise, even if the inflation situation says they should), they'll cave.
I thought once the tough comps came off, inflation would come down, but now I think what's likely to happen is commodities are going to be sticky for a very long time, but the demand side is going to get completely and thoroughly pummeled because of this, because we're at the point of no return here.
It's a bad situation.
Anyway...
I doubt this week's lows have traded, even including the afterhours. I think the overall market pauses again and sees relief when the Dow prints 31800...probably in 2 days at this point, but this is at the very least going to be one head and shoulders pattern that finally plays out for the S&P (there is also an inverse head and shoulders, but that's not going to be what plays out).
My question is do we react again to CPI if the market is completely hammered into the number, which seems likely to me (the thing that's awful here is that this CPI print already isn't very meaningful for me due to events in Eastern Europe). Maybe we sell off tomorrow, sell off Wednesday, then gap down hard and reverse on Thursday.