Misc Stock Market

[Webberweather53]

That's not what I was saying at all - and 2-3 weeks is in no way a "substantial period of time" for a long-term investor.

Umm yea when you say something along the lines of "wow, the dow has been increasing since the beginning of time nothing to worry about yall!" that's extremely short-sighted & selfish on your part wrt the vast array of businesses that employ hundreds of millions of Americans and depend on the stock market's outcome over this period of time. Dow hasn't been decreasing for just 2-3 weeks, it's more like a month already because we peaked on Feb 12th, and then it's going to take time for us to just break even again, so we're already talking 2-3 months of not significantly increasing, that's a significant period of time for investors as a whole (not just long-term investors) & it's going to affect basically everyone in some way, shape, or form (price of goods, services, etc.). To slide this under the rug as nothing to worry about when you're coming off the worst day for the market in its history by a landslide in terms of total point(s) and you had tripped 2 circuit breakers in the process, that's concerning. Why do you suppose they put those circuit breakers in place in the market? You suppose this is just "normal" market behavior? It's not.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Umm yea when you say something along the lines of "wow, the dow has been increasing since the beginning of time nothing to worry about yall!" that's extremely short-sighted & selfish on your part wrt the vast array of businesses that employ hundreds of millions of Americans and depend on the stock market's outcome over this period of time. Dow hasn't been decreasing for just 2-3 weeks, it's more like a month already because we peaked on Feb 12th, and then it's going to take time for us to just break even again, so we're already talking 2-3 months of not significantly increasing, that's a significant period of time for investors as a whole (not just long-term investors) & it's going to affect basically everyone in some way, shape, or form (price of goods, services, etc.). To slide this under the rug as nothing to worry about when you're coming off the worst day for the market in its history by a landslide in terms of total point(s) and you had tripped 2 circuit breakers in the process, that's concerning. Why do you suppose they put those circuit breakers in place in the market? You suppose this is just "normal" market behavior? It's not.

I never said it was normal behavior; I was simply saying that people need to take a deep breath and not stress out over hourly fluctuations on any given day of trading.
If significant market declines continue for the next 3-6 months and result in consecutive GDP drops for Q2 and Q3 (which would mean we're in recession) then that is definitely problematic. But we're not even close to that point yet.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I never said it was normal behavior; I was simply saying that people need to take a deep breath and not stress out over hourly fluctuations on any given day of trading.
If significant market declines continue for the next 3-6 months and result in consecutive GDP drops for Q2 and Q3 (which would mean we're in recession) then that is definitely problematic. But we're not even close to that point yet.

That's not how stock market crashes work. They don't go down for 3 to 6 MONTHS they do in 3 to 6 WEEKS. We're entering our third week since the peak and it's still dropping relatively. The market is in panic mode and there's nothing that is going to stop them at this point.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Long term investment doesn't apply because that's the economic cycle, unless you're retiring in the next 5 years. It's the businesses right now that can't afford to lose money that will be affected the most.

Businesses in sectors such as travel, tourism, and entertainment services are definitely in deep trouble (and most of those are privately held so they don't even register in the capital markets). Nobody is arguing otherwise.

But this forum is about the stock market, which - inherently - should greatly focus on impacts to investors.

 

[Yellow Snow]

That's not how stock market crashes work. They don't go down for 3 to 6 MONTHS they do in 3 to 6 WEEKS. We're entering our third week since the peak and it's still dropping relatively. The market is in panic mode and there's nothing that is going to stop them at this point.

That's simply not true - the 2008-09 Dow crash began in Sept. 2008 (when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy) and continued right through March 2009.

 

[Webberweather53]

I never said it was normal behavior; I was simply saying that people need to take a deep breath and not stress out over hourly fluctuations on any given day of trading.
If significant market declines continue for the next 3-6 months and result in consecutive GDP drops for Q2 and Q3 (which would mean we're in recession) then that is definitely problematic. But we're not even close to that point yet.

Ditto w/ @ForsythSnow's response, market crashes occur in weeks not months, I really don't think you understand how any of this actually works... How is a loss of over 2000 points in one single day superimposed onto an increasingly crappy market that's been already falling for weeks not problematic whatsoever? Do you realize that the "big 5" in tech lost over $300 billion dollars from the Dow losing 2000 points in just one day (& ~8% of their total)? Smh

 

[Webberweather53]

That's simply not true - the 2008-09 Dow crash began in Sept. 2008 (when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy) and continued right through March 2009.

The overwhelming majority of that crash occurred in a span of just 4-5 weeks from the end of August and thru October, not months, by the end of November the Dow had already fallen to nearly where it would come to rest at the height of the recession.

 

[Nerman]

That's not how stock market crashes work. They don't go down for 3 to 6 MONTHS they do in 3 to 6 WEEKS. We're entering our third week since the peak and it's still dropping relatively. The market is in panic mode and there's nothing that is going to stop them at this point.

Housing bubble took 6 months in 2008. From Oct 08' to Mar 09'.

The Tech Bubble started dropping in 2000 and didn't hit bottom until 2002.

I guess the difference is are we talking about a bear market and possible recession or just a correction. If it's just a correction then historically they are shorter. Think Sep 18' to Dec 18' that took 3 months to correct.

 

[NCSNOW]

We should go to flat tax off payroll and be done with it. No more write offs,tax credits,itemizing etc. Set it at 10 to 15%. Business profits flat taxed as well.Do away with all sales taxes. State and local govt should do the same ,flat tax off income. 0 line budget each year. Everyone will see exactly where their money goes and not have their vision fogged up by all the charades, loopholes write offs etc

You make 20,000 a year or 20 mill a year, doesnt matter, everyone pays the same.

 

[ForsythSnow]

That's simply not true - the 2008-09 Dow crash began in Sept. 2008 (when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy) and continued right through March 2009.

The decline did, but the immediate shock didn't. I'm referring to the highest loss period. Sept into Oct was when the most was lost.

 

[Flurry]

Housing bubble took 6 months in 2008. From Oct 08' to Mar 09'.

The Tech Bubble started dropping in 2000 and didn't hit bottom until 2002.

I guess the difference is are we talking about a bear market and possible recession or just a correction. If it's just a correction then historically they are shorter. Think Sep 18' to Dec 18' that took 3 months to correct.

IMO, this is simply a correction caused by the Coronavirus....That's all

 

[NCSNOW]

We can blame this crash on the cornovirus and thats true but it really should be blamed on poor supply chain management. Everyone got in bed with china and that 4 to 6 week complete stoppage is what triggered this domino. Hopefully we will learn from this and get back to the ole made in the usa mentality by renogiating all these trade deals. Encourage domestic supply side economics.

 

[Yellow Snow]

The overwhelming majority of that crash occurred in a span of just 4-5 weeks from the end of August and thru October, not months, by the end of November the Dow had already fallen to nearly where it would come to rest at the height of the recession.

Again, that's simply not so. The DJIA's decline during the initial phase continued into January of 2009.

 

[Webberweather53]

Again, that's simply not so. The DJIA's decline during the initial phase continued into January of 2009.

View attachment 37033

Yes it definitely is so, most of the loss still occurred in just several weeks in 2008. You're clueless.

 

[snowlover91]

Yes it definitely is so, most of the loss still occurred in just several weeks in 2008. You're clueless.

The market crashed hard in 2008, stabilized for a few months and then fell hard again in the early part of 2009. It seemed to come in two waves with the steepest drop initially, a stabilization and then another significant drop in early 2009 with a low around 6600 (1 week intervals). The first crash from the 11,500 range to 8500 was around a 25-30% drop. The second drop from the 8500 range where things stabilized to around 6600 was a 25% drop in early 2019. Both were 20+ percent drops and significant.

 

[Rain Cold]

Putting this here too:

I'd like to remind everyone, let's please try to treat each other nicely, even when we don't agree.

 

[snowlover91]

The overwhelming majority of that crash occurred in a span of just 4-5 weeks from the end of August and thru October, not months, by the end of November the Dow had already fallen to nearly where it would come to rest at the height of the recession.

The Dow stabilized in the 8,000-8,500 range in November and December. It then plunged another 20+ percent in early 2009 but took 3 months to bottom out. It was a slower drop but a steady red market during those 3 months.

 

[Webberweather53]

The Dow stabilized in the 8,000-8,500 range in November and December. It then plunged another 20+ percent in early 2009 but took 3 months to bottom out. It was a slower drop but a steady red market during those 3 months.

My point definitely still remains that those drops occurred in a span of weeks not months. The intervening period doesn't count

 

[Yellow Snow]

Yes it definitely is so, most of the loss still occurred in just several weeks in 2008. You're clueless.

The market crashed hard in 2008, stabilized for a few months and then fell hard again in the early part of 2009. It seemed to come in two waves with the steepest drop initially, a stabilization and then another significant drop in early 2009 with a low around 6600 (1 week intervals). The first crash from the 11,500 range to 8500 was around a 25-30% drop. The second drop from the 8500 range where things stabilized to around 6600 was a 25% drop in early 2019. Both were 20+ percent drops and significant.

Precisely. Overall, the market decline lasted about six months from when the crisis first began.

 

[Webberweather53]

Precisely. Overall, the market decline lasted about six months from when the crisis first began.

View attachment 37037

Almost all of the market's decline came over a period of just weeks, the intervening relatively more stable period didn't account for any of the long-term decrease. That's really the point I'm getting at here.