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Misc Stock Market

KyloG said:
Apple getting a little ridiculous. Market setting up for a rough September…IMO. Still think rest of Aug try’s to push higher, maybe higher than some expect.

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I’ve been buying some stocks for the long term but I’m probably gonna slow down for awhile. Think things are bouncing a little to crazy when the overall economy isn’t much better outside of the job market
 
Round Oak Weather said:
I’ve been buying some stocks for the long term but I’m probably gonna slow down for awhile. Think things are bouncing a little to crazy when the overall economy isn’t much better outside of the job market
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Sept is notorious for being weak but mid term years are known to be strong in Q4. That’s what I am expecting. But, other mega caps have to pick up the slack, we can’t run Apple to ATH’s.

I expect Q’s to get back to the $348 level by end of year to end the year down 15%…which is a big down year.

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Q’s will this long running trendline tomorrow. Should be very interesting…

Also, up against the 200dema.

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KyloG said:
S&P took out May highs. Everything looks good.

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It actually isn't quite there on the May highs. It needs 430ish.

It's probably going to happen soon to be honest (granted, I'm talking about something that isn't a stretch anymore). The Nasdaq Comp just filled its violent gap down post-May 4th and it's been ahead on moves (was first to get above the late May/early June highs).

It probably happens after OPEX I think as long as the S&P holds 4130/4140 (yea, I'm looking for things to cool off some).
 
Closed out my longs when Q’s tagged $330 and just have a Q’s short on here, stop $331.

I sold 1/3 of my Q’s in my long term IRA and now just over 30% cash. Happy to stay with that if market keeps pushing higher or will add back in low $300’s if that happens

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KyloG said:
Closed out my longs when Q’s tagged $330 and just have a Q’s short on here, stop $331.

I sold 1/3 of my Q’s in my long term IRA and now just over 30% cash. Happy to stay with that if market keeps pushing higher or will add back in low $300’s if that happens

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Think top is in for a while?
 
Broken024 said:
Think top is in for a while?
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$330 probably top until Q4. Just my guess. I dont think things fall apart though. Monthly opex (Aug 19th) tend to be lows +- a couple of days. I would love a pull back to $320-$322 in Q’s.
 
KyloG said:
Apple is eventually going to pull back…maybe…?

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Apple could issue a statement and say they will never sell another product again and that they were shutting their doors forever and the stock would go up.
 
KyloG said:
Sept is notorious for being weak but mid term years are known to be strong in Q4. That’s what I am expecting. But, other mega caps have to pick up the slack, we can’t run Apple to ATH’s.

I expect Q’s to get back to the $348 level by end of year to end the year down 15%…which is a big down year.

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They love to pump it. It doesn’t seem to matter what happens Apple won’t go down much and when it goes up it doesn’t do it slowly.
 
Through on a cute short on Apple. Stop $170. No longs on at the moment.

If it breaks $169 it can accelerate downward. ?‍♂️

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Welp, I should've kept my thought to myself this morning. Bonds look ready to sweep the leg of tech. That 4300 gap will continue to act as a runaway gap down like it should.

Suppose I shouldn't be surprised. The technicals there were really weakening, and I was talking a bit too much. Like I didn't say I was looking for it, but I was saying there's a world where TNX breaks down and SPX sees 4600 again sooner rather than later.

Tbh I'm surprised this didn't occur yesterday because I can remember in April on CPI day, there was a big gap up to start that got wiped (well, it kinda did happen in treasury bonds, high yield/stocks ignored it).
 
That’s a big moc…let’s see if tomorrow has another or if this is just an anomaly.

 
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As much as I'd love for it to, oil was never going to go down in a straight line. All it's done to this point is bounce off a trendline it needed to bounce off of or else it truly was death for it.

This does expose two issues though. The reason it really came off in July was recession fears, not any real change in policy, and the reason why it was able to perk back up might have been a Fed pause being sniffed out.

WTI probably shouldn't be below $100 and the US10Y probably shouldn't be below 3. Heck, WTI probably shouldn't even be below what the line in the sand is (as long as it's below $105, it's on a one-way trip to nowhere for now at least, that's your line in the sand).
 
Right now both the bond and stock market are saying no recession/ soft landing. Commodities are saying we are heading for a depression. If that is the case you better back the truck up on commodities. If we are going into a recession and it blind sides the market watch out below for stocks. This is what makes a market.

Also most commodities storages are getting to record lows. Sometime after the midterms those chickens will come home to roost.
 
SPY up against a key pivot resistance. Though, seems like no resistance is much of a challenge. I always thought Aug would be bullish and Sept would be solid pullback but this is surprising that we aren't getting any real dip in August.

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