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Misc Stock Market

Anything related to silver and gold is going to rocket this week. @snowlover91 any good micro caps out there with good exposure to precious metals? Give me what y’all got. Silver futes ripping.1984F564-6E81-4514-896F-F77B6F26A472.jpeg
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Nasdaq saw 12k and saw it pretty fast (I'm referencing $COMP by the way instead of NDX). It had its shot for Wednesday to be a one off like that random day in December was, but that shot went poof in the last half hour or so on Thursday I think. This one has been more orderly than early September though at least at this moment.

It's actually not the weakest index at the moment I think, but it's the one that matters the most. I'm guessing close to there is where it finds support this time. You will probably hear crowing about the end of the bull for tech again, while $COMP quietly consolidates and then we'll notice later that it's grinding higher again (it took me a little while before I noticed that it was very quietly outperforming outside of the Russell 2000 in December).

For us to really start talking about the possibility of a bear market, you probably need lower than 10.6-10.8k to hold. Until then, there's no reason to overthink this because the market is too big to fail, even if you do eventually see it fail this year.

(it also wouldn't surprise me if the last week in January was just a repeat of what we've seen before then with rebalancing, except with it being pared by degrossing by hedge funds that got screwed)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Nasdaq saw 12k and saw it pretty fast (I'm referencing $COMP by the way instead of NDX). It had its shot for Wednesday to be a one off like that random day in December was, but that shot went poof in the last half hour or so on Thursday I think. This one has been more orderly than early September though at least at this moment.

It's actually not the weakest index at the moment I think, but it's the one that matters the most. I'm guessing close to there is where it finds support this time. You will probably hear crowing about the end of the bull for tech again, while $COMP quietly consolidates and then we'll notice later that it's grinding higher again (it took me a little while before I noticed that it was very quietly outperforming outside of the Russell 2000 in December).

For us to really start talking about the possibility of a bear market, you probably need lower than 10.6-10.8k to hold. Until then, there's no reason to overthink this because the market is too big to fail, even if you do eventually see it fail this year.

(it also wouldn't surprise me if the last week in January was just a repeat of what we've seen before then with rebalancing, except with it being pared by degrossing by hedge funds that got screwed)
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I’m thinking we see something similar to end of 2018. Early 2018 was warning shot similar to what we saw in Sept/Oct.

AB2B86AD-709D-4785-A537-74645B561261.png
 
The WSB crew has made a living on OTM calls...we hit a 6-9 pullback where trades are very choppy they will get cleaned out.
 
I think dropping below 3250 or so and holding there (and perhaps even the old ATH on SPX and by old, I'm meaning the one around 3380ish) would be a huge psychological blow. That's why I wouldn't go there.

The general longer term idea remains intact...for now above there. Which is that they've created something that they're too afraid to let fail.
 
KyloG said:
It was due and GME was just the spark. I don’t think we will see a multi year bear market...yet
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Exactly, market is overbought and due a serious pull back, new administration and this GME stuff just all coming together like a perfect storm imho
 
It’s over. Glancing at google trends, interest in GameStop stock and amc stock has plummeted back to normal. The hype seems to be over. The idea of amc repeating GME is flawed...

Now not a huge fan of seeking alpha but this article is pretty concise and good.


What isn’t over is the market reaction to what’s happening with GME and others, and the movement in general. How will the broader market react? What will these short companies due with other holdings?

I’d love to get into something good that drops off record highs as a consequence of this volatility. That’s where I’m looking... Bitcoin included (for a long position)
 
My guess is that hedge funds probably got a lot of the work done last week actually with degrossing. I don't think they're completely finished, but I'm guessing they're close:

Chamath Palihapitiya on Twitter: "13. Now a massive short squeeze starts. You have to cover your shorts ASAP. But the banks also notice that you don't have enough credit to cover the $30 they lent you and ask for more collateral. You now also have to sell your long positions. It looks like this: https://t.co/g2Er3gBFg7" / Twitter

(would be interested in seeing an updated picture but it probably wouldn't be easy to find)

And yes...retail such as WSB isn't even realizing it, I'm guessing that unless something comes up tomorrow, that will probably be that with GME, for now at least.
 
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