• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Other than a couple rumbles of thunder, she was a snoozfest here. You guys to my east keep your heads on a swivel. Good luck
 
Rain Cold said:
Holy cow this rain is stubborn.
Click to expand...
Its weird, feels like a tropical system outside, breezy warm DP is 70 and off and on rain. Any other time I'd say this rain was going to save us..... I'm not sure this time

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
One thing very concerning it seems to be clearing immediately behind the rain shield, plenty of time for destabilization

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

WRAL's in-house model showed about 3 to 4 hours of clearing before the next round comes through around 6:00 here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL's in-house model showed about 3 to 4 hours of clearing before the next round comes through around 6:00 here.
Click to expand...
Probably right, I'm just going off of visible sat that shows clearing already behind the rain

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Ended up not being clipped, so the most interesting thing that happened was probably a 30 MPH wind gust. Most of the rumbles of thunder I'm hearing are probably originating from where that storm did go over in the county which was around Fort Gordon.

Hopefully east of me this isn't too bad.
 
mcd0402.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas to southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 191629Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon hours. Some tornado potential exists with damaging winds
becoming more likely later with a squall line.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal low-level warm advection has been primarily
responsible for ongoing band of convection across the eastern
Carolinas into southeast VA. Within this band, several long-lived
updrafts have exhibited rotation which is to be expected given the
observed environmental shear. There is some concern for isolated
supercells and tornadoes within this regime. However, a more
concentrated squall line should surge into this region ahead of the
short wave later this afternoon. Damaging winds are expected with
this convection.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/19/2019
 
metwannabe said:
Its weird, feels like a tropical system outside, breezy warm DP is 70 and off and on rain. Any other time I'd say this rain was going to save us..... I'm not sure this time

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

70 DPs are very high here for this time of year. I think it’s coming from the high ssts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I was just thinking when I looked at the radar again that the storm that originated in south central GA was getting it's act together again rotation wise on radar and my mom just commented that it's tornado warned again. No longer have family in the county north of me however.
 
metwannabe said:
Its weird, feels like a tropical system outside, breezy warm DP is 70 and off and on rain. Any other time I'd say this rain was going to save us..... I'm not sure this time

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah I was just saying the same to my wife. Looks very much like a tropical system. Rain is finally ending now and the sky is lightening up.
 
Last thing we want is to have the rain end now and have 5 or so hours of clearing before the next line of storms comes through.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The winds are incredible in Wilkes watch out Piedmont Triad (Winston) not sure why they didn’t issue a wind advisory!? These are winds outside of the storms. Limbs are falling. Hats off to Raleigh for covering their area with one.
 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1244 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

NCC069-101-127-183-191-195-191715-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190419T1715Z/
Wayne NC-Nash NC-Wake NC-Johnston NC-Wilson NC-Franklin NC-
1244 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN NASH...EAST CENTRAL WAKE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSTON...WILSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 1244 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Zebulon to near Goldsboro, moving north at 55
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Wilson, Zebulon, Elm City, Fremont, Walnut Creek, Bailey,
Micro, Wendell and Pine Level.
 
3050de659eda0a2faf1aa9f82c1c1fc1.jpg



Amateur looking for input here! So far in Greenville County, we’ve been pretty fortunate. I’ve lived here my whole life and think we can attribute that to rain showers before the main line.

However, I’m noticing that there is a clearing showing up now literally over the top of my house before the secondary line. What are the odds the second line intensifies more-so than it is now?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Feels cool but humid. First lines approaching my county with the eastern batch of weather in the next half an hour. Not warned but soecial weather statement calling for winds up to 50mph.
 
Rain Cold said:
Sun’s out guns out here in SE Wake. Let’s rock.
Click to expand...

This reminds me of what happened with the April 2011 outbreak. Not saying it's going to be that bad, but I remember it rained that morning, too, and then the sun came out in the afternoon and all hell broke loose.
 
Would not recommend traveling west into the NC mountains...insane flooding. Surprised the NWS ignored the WPC and did not issue a Flood Watch. There was a slight risk.
 
Additional tornado warnings for south-west Virginia being issued now. Pembroke, VA.
 
Olar Ehrhardt Bamberg Branchville ..that area is in for a wild ride. I used to do a lot of utility work down there. Mobile homes and flat land
 
mcd0404.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 87...

Valid 191720Z - 191845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Approaching squall line, with preceding semi-discrete
convection, will likely pose some severe risk across parts of
central Florida within the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts are
anticipated to be the main threat, though a brief tornado or two may
occur with the most intense storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be issued downstream.

DISCUSSION...A mature squall line is currently propagating eastward
into central Florida, with semi-discrete cells ongoing from Hardee
to Collier County Florida. These storms are evolving within a
moderately buoyant (i.e. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment, driven
primarily by 7.5 C/km low-level lapse rates and relatively deep
low-level moisture. Bulk effective shear values of up to 40 knots is
present across the Florida Peninsula, but the bulk shear vectors are
oriented roughly parallel with the line, with a modest low-level
shear environment present.

Portions of the squall line farther north have produced sporatic
wind damage, with the aforementioned semi-discrete convection
producing gusts around 50 knots near Fort Meyers Beach within the
past hour. Current thermodynamic environment, as well as the latest
high-resolution model guidance, both suggest that potential exists
for additional damaging wind gusts to occur, with a potential uptick
expected across central FL in the near-term. A tornado or two is
also possible, both with the more organized cells ahead of the
squall line, and along the leading portions of squall line itself.
The best chance for a tornado would be farther north, where
deep-layer ascent and low-level shear is relatively stronger. Still,
overall modest low-level shear suggests that damaging gusts should
be the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
issued downstream to address the increasing damaging wind threat for
portions of central Florida.
 
mcd0403.gif



Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Southeast GA...SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...

Valid 191719Z - 191845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is shifting into SC.

DISCUSSION...Severe squall line has evolved along leading edge of
strong large-scale forcing for ascent. LEWP is evident over
southwest SC and this forced line of convection is surging northeast
at roughly 45kt. Damaging winds appear possible with these storms as
they spread across the northeastern half of ww89. While a tornado
can not be ruled out with the squall line, primary tornado threat
remains with discrete structures ahead of the linear MCS.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top