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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

Myfrotho704_ said:
Sheesh that cape but wind shear is weak aloft, although in AL there some more View attachment 82832View attachment 82833
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That north and central alabama zone has the best combo of ingredients. I think 300srh helicity is more than enough in a high cape Environment. Especially if other things are aiding in vertical motion. Actually looked at a few case studies and there's been multiple violent tornadoes from high cape low shear. Not saying this will be that cause there's more factors to determine.
 
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
 
Tornadocane said:
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
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May not be a tornado setup, a few tornadoes will cause problems though , but it's a interesting one for north alabama nonetheless.
 
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday morning threat across northern AL.
 
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Arcc said:
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday night threat across northern AL.
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Arcc said:
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday night threat across northern AL.
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Early wensday night or early wensday morning?
 
Tornadocane said:
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
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Yeah first time this season best tornado setup appears further north and west. Arkansas and west central tennessee west Kentucky
 
Zander98al said:
May not be a tornado setup, a few tornadoes will cause problems though , but it's a interesting one for north alabama nonetheless.
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I'm not discounting a bunch of weak tornadoes. I'm trying to keep expectations in check, or I'm subconsciously being a party-pooper. I'm afraid it might have mostly been the latter intent. I just hate being disappointed by the EURO over-exaggerating optimal conditions.
 
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