Both. That chart is showing excellent directional shear. That said it is on the weaker side with speed shear. It’s also showing almost due west winds at 500mb which is very favorable for supercells in the SE.
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Both. That chart is showing excellent directional shear. That said it is on the weaker side with speed shear. It’s also showing almost due west winds at 500mb which is very favorable for supercells in the SE.
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Zander98al
Guest
Wouldn't higher cape make up for the fact of less speed shear though?
Tornadocane
Member
Thank you. I was wondering who else saw it that way. That's where I'd place the best setup, but it's outside the area of decent instability.
Edit: I'm not sure, but I think 250Mb wind charts along with other levels of the atmosphere, illustrates that the storms in N. Alabama would collide due to the veering wind directions and speeds, and VBV at varying levels would limit the intense organization of tornadoes.
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Somewhat, although the lower bulk shear will probably lead to a more pulse type dynamic. That could lead to messier storm mode or it may be enough shear and with the very low forcing keep things discrete. That said, it’s not far from the same SRH that the first outbreak of storms had in early March.
Definitely more interesting than the little I looked at yesterday.
Anddddd the hrrr looks like crap here
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Zander98al
Guest
Big ---- hrrr looks good again 
Tornadocane
Member
I'd place the initial tornado threat to the N and W of the instability axis illustrated on a blend of the models, because there's decent wind shear in that area. The best area for tornado formation looks to be AK and MO, pushing NE into TN and KY. The 500 Mb Jet is sort of splitting off into two directions, and there's a large area of instability that reaches all the way over to IL and IN. That area of convection over LA and AL is fueled by a pretty strong push of warm air advection, and the models have been pretty aggressive with it.
That night time look very late Tuesday to morning Wednesday looks really nasty on the Euro across North AL and southern TN into Georgia.
Shaggy
Member
Hrrr has been solid this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few tornado warnings.
Tornadocane
Member
I think that piece that goes into Georgia looks like a Confluence Zone that was initiated by pressure falls associated with the 500Mb Vort that's currently moving through LA and MS. It dies out as the Vort moves NE. I might be wrong,
That’s quite the combo, widespread dews in the 60s-70s and a shitload of EML aloft 
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Zander98al
Guest
Supercell heaven ?. With the occasional tornado warning.
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Zander98al
Guest
Also that vertical storm motion won't be no joke. I'd imagine a enchanced area will be introduced before all this takes place. High lapse rates with very unstable air and a diffluence in the jestream. Main concern would be wether there's enough shear to maintain updrafts
Might be a couple rotating storms tomorrow but skinny cape/moist profiles limit the hail threat, might be a few strong wind gusts
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Zander98al
Guest
Im legit excited for Tuesday if supercells start popping. I'm going to be over by birmingham airport at east lake boulevard. And it has a great view
That’s quite the difference in EML strength/coverage on the NAM vs the HRRR, from what I’ve seen this year EMLs have been undermodeled 
Geez nam showing Tuesday could be several storm clusters/MCSs
The NAM and the Euro are so far apart in regards to the LLJ late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
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Zander98al
Guest
That's a big diffrence lolThe NAM and the Euro are so far apart in regards to the LLJ late Tuesday/early Wednesday.