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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

It appears the HRRR doesn't wanna have a second wave of severe weather late Tuesday into early wensday. ? Also the storms during the day look a good bit messy. I wonder if the HRRR is picking up on the EML good enough.Screenshot_20210502-205114.pngScreenshot_20210502-205046.pngScreenshot_20210502-205038.png
 
It appears the HRRR doesn't wanna have a second wave of severe weather late Tuesday into early wensday. ? Also the storms during the day look a good bit messy. I wonder if the HRRR is picking up on the EML good enough.View attachment 82987View attachment 82988View attachment 82989
There’s clearly so much potential these next few days hold especially with what we have seen today and tonight (I think a study needs to be done about how likely it is to get a tornado in a low topped supercell environment with large cape vs a run of the mill supercell structure environment ) I think it is also clear we’re going to need to see how storms initiate ex’s use this is again a classic wait and see type of scenario that really shows us how storms evolve and what modes we see
 
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR TUPELO...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Central Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

* Until 1045 PM CDT.

* At 952 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
observed over Tupelo, moving northeast at 45 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Tupelo. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!


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We’re getting these strong rotations and areas are only maximum in a slight risk ... I’m sure this day didn’t scare people enough to be weather aware .. could be costly
 
Hmmm the WRFs show something concerning for tomorrow morning. These may very well be low topped supercells with lots of directional shear and 500mb winds at 40-45kts. The 0-1km helicity around 250+ is plenty for tornadoes with some strong.
 

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Hmmm the WRFs show something concerning for tomorrow morning. These may very well be low topped supercells with lots of directional shear and 500mb winds at 40-45kts. The 0-1km helicity around 250+ is plenty for tornadoes with some strong.
Also laying down some nice outflow boundaries for later tomorrow night ...
 
3km NAM for north AL. Any backing of the surface wind and that 0-1km Helicity will get close to 300.

nam4km_2021050300_019_33.79--85.6.png
 
Euro is way more aggressive with the LLJ late Tuesday. Ramps up the LLJ to 45 knots across a good chunk of AL by 0z Wednesday which is a good bit earlier than before. That is also a trend the last three runs.
 
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