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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

SouthATLwx

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HRRR's sounding still shows just a wee bit of capping in place. Combined with the less than impressive low level flow may be why the storms haven't been as robust as they could be (so far) and seem to be getting messy. This may end up sparing the heart of DFW from anything too severe.

A ton of hail reports though (all 2" or less).
 

SD

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I hope this line can really solidify in future runs ... I mean there’s heating of the day out east of it I don’t see why it doesn’t mature more .. even sun looks to get out and about east of it .. don’t really know why is seems to stay multi cellular and semi weak
Hrrr mixes dews down into the upper 50s/near 60. If that's the case you can forget it but the HRRR has a tendency to get over mixy
 

Arcc

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Some of the local birmingham news stations are putting us under a moderate risk for tornadoes lol. I'm more worried about the possible derecho later
Yeah, the tornado risk has dropped a good bit since the Euro completely caved yesterday. Still a risk for tornadoes with last nights Euro run, but much more unidirectional from 850mb to 500mb. Any supercells will probably grow upscale.

The funny part is the Euro is still printing out supercells. It must have decided to try to outdo the supercell machine that is the HRRR.
 

Zander98al

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Yeah, the tornado risk has dropped a good bit since the Euro completely caved yesterday. Still a risk for tornadoes with last nights Euro run, but much more unidirectional from 850mb to 500mb. Any supercells will probably grow upscale.

The funny part is the Euro is still printing out supercells. It must have decided to try to outdo the supercell machine that is the HRRR.
Lol, I'm just gunna go with the idea of qcls tornadoes and a main line. Spc put a 45 risk for wind damage so I'm gunna hedge on that. Might be a tornado or two. But after yesterday's performance I wouldn't put the euro a step above the HRRR lol
 

ryan1234

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Why did the SPC remove the slight risk for WNC/upstate the hrrr is consistent at bringing strong winds/hailcores with the strongest multicells
Yeah, makes zero sense. I didn't expect to wake up to the sun shining. There is just way too much fuel out there this morning for us not to get multiple rounds of storms some of which are going to strong/svr.
 

Tornadocane

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Flooding might be a huge concern this evening as areas that have already received 2-8 inches of rain might see another 3-6 inches. Areas in KY and TN have seen 5-8 inches within last 6 hours, and the atmosphere looks to reload during peak day-time heating before a second round tonight. I think some places in Alabama could see an area of 5-7" of rain given models consistently illustrate training storms 6+ hours.
 

Zander98al

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Flooding might be a huge concern this evening as areas that have already received 2-8 inches of rain might see another 3-6 inches. Areas in KY and TN have seen 5-8 inches within last 6 hours, and the atmosphere looks to reload during peak day-time heating before a second round tonight. I think some places in Alabama could see an area of 5-7" of rain given models consistently illustrate training storms 6+ hours.
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Tornadocane

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Tornado Warning South of Jackson, MS. http://www.tornadohq.com/

000
WFUS54 KJAN 041319
TORJAN
MSC029-121-127-041415-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0048.210504T1319Z-210504T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
819 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 819 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CRYSTAL SPRINGS, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
 

Zander98al

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Oof. Nasty looking cell south of Jackson, MS. Not much to compete with either.

View attachment 83150
Still pretty broad though. But if I'm correct last few days it's showed a outflow boundary from a decaying mcs moving through MS into alabama so it may be near that. Currently working so I can't really look at what alls going on lol.
 

Chazwin

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Yeah, makes zero sense. I didn't expect to wake up to the sun shining. There is just way too much fuel out there this morning for us not to get multiple rounds of storms some of which are going to strong/svr.
I agree... I’ve had a feeling since Sunday that today would be a bigger deal for the upstate and WNC including CLT metro. The sun is out and heating things up quick and the air just has that feel to it. I was suprised things got as active here yesterday after seeing overcast skies all morning and today there a lot fuel to set things off.
 

Arcc

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Still pretty broad though. But if I'm correct last few days it's showed a outflow boundary from a decaying mcs moving through MS into alabama so it may be near that. Currently working so I can't really look at what alls going on lol.
Absolutely beautiful structure.

Great look for maintaining the supercell per mesoanalysis. Shear is a little low, but great turning with height.
 

ryan1234

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I agree... I’ve had a feeling since Sunday that today would be a bigger deal for the upstate and WNC including CLT metro. The sun is out and heating things up quick and the air just has that feel to it. I was suprised things got as active here yesterday after seeing overcast skies all morning and today there a lot fuel to set things off.
Agreed. Brad P's latest VBLOG alluded to this as well. Their inhouse model shows a pretty stout QLCS moving through late afternoon. And he even said he wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk expand back towards are area.
 
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