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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

SouthATLwx

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1620073255480.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 032014Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across north Texas and south-central Oklahoma between 5-7 PM CDT.
These storms will pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. A
watch is likely by 21 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations from north TX and southern OK
reveal a surface low northeast of Abilene, TX with a stalled cold
front draped to the southwest and a dryline extending to the south.
To the northeast of this low, a stationary front is noted across
southern to northeast OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows a
shallow, but growing, cumulus field west of the DFW metro into
southeast OK east of the stationary boundary. A 19 UTC FWD sounding
shows considerable MLCIN remains in place, and should keep
convection at bay in the near term. However, continued diurnal
heating and increasing ascent over the region (due to the approach
of an upper-level wave from the west) will help erode lingering
inhibition by the 5-7 PM CDT time frame. Deep-layer shear is
forecast to increase as stronger flow associated with the synoptic
trough moves over the region, which will support initially discrete
cells along the dryline and stationary boundary. Steep mid-level
lapse rates noted in the 19 UTC FWD sounding and dewpoints
increasing into the upper 60s/low 70s will support MLCAPE values
near 3000-4000 J/kg.

Consequently, severe hail appears likely and a few instances of
large (2+") hail are probable with any initial discrete storms. The
KFWS VWP recently observed around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which may
support at least a low-end tornado threat across north TX. The
tornado threat will likely be higher along the Red River and
northward into south/southeast OK in the vicinity of the triple
point and along the stationary boundary where more backed low-level
winds are noted and environmental vertical vorticity is higher.
Although the potential for a few tornadoes exists with any initial
discrete convection, rapid upscale growth is possible within an hour
or two after initiation, and may limit the overall tornado
potential. Nonetheless, a tornado watch is likely by 21 UTC.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32349878 33399800 34149751 34849731 35219655 35269553
34959507 34309498 33569502 32899532 32439620 31919717
31539805 31409867 31639898 32349878
 

ryan1234

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I am more concerned about tomorrow afternoon/evening/overnight than I was for today (at least for these parts) as we should have even more CAPE and better dynamics. Brad P even alluded to this.
 

JHS

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I am more concerned about tomorrow afternoon/evening/overnight than I was for today (at least for these parts) as we should have even more CAPE and better dynamics. Brad P even alluded to this.
GSP does not seem very confident about how tomorrow plays out, saying they need to wait and see what happens upstream tonight. They do think the bigger threat is from mid/late afternoon and into the evening. Then maybe more chances on Wednesday depending on how tomorrow and tomorrow night play out.
 

SouthATLwx

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-147-181-193-213-
217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-309-333-349-367-379-397-425-439-
467-497-040400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BELL BOSQUE COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
MILLS NAVARRO PARKER
RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095-
099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-040400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
 

SouthATLwx

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-147-181-193-213-
217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-309-333-349-367-379-397-425-439-
467-497-040400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BELL BOSQUE COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
MILLS NAVARRO PARKER
RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095-
099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-040400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
1620075242347.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Oklahoma
North-central Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Intense supercells are expected to initiate along the
dryline in north-central Texas and the surface front in southeast
Oklahoma by about 6 PM CDT. Very large hail will be the primary
initial threat, but tornadoes and significant severe winds will be
possible as well. Supercells should grow upscale into one or more
clusters with an increasing risk of damaging winds this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Muskogee OK to 40
miles southwest of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW
130
...WW 131...WW 132...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Grams
 

gaikkeb

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So I want to go home but can't. I work in Loganville, GA and currently for the past hour or so these storms have been training over Loganville and every time I look to go, there's a 2 second window and BOOM more rain!!! Guess it's a good thing I have grading to do! Y'all be safe tonight and tomorrow!


Edit/update- Finally got a break and made it home, roads weren't too bad but many of my back roads could have future issues!
 
Last edited:

Shaggy

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Damage report from that earlier warned cell in NC Stanley county shows as possible tornado damage. Chicken houses destroyed and a car blown off the road.
 

SouthATLwx

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Tornado Warning in effect for Johnson and Hood Counties in TX, with a confirmed TOG.

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first 2021 tornado report in FWD's CWA.
 

EmersonGA

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Over 7 inches at my house since 8am this morning, lot's of training setting up across Atlanta. Pitch black dark, booming thunder, vivid lightning, my street lights are on,,,LOL.
2.57 so far but the tempest usually has to revise up. All of the creeks are up to the tops of their banks. Tomorrow could get interesting.
 
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