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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

That 12z euro for Tuesday looks a little ominous. Actually has a closed low in south Missouri with a large swath of decent windfields in the southeast. If models shift more to the euro solution it'll be a nasty day possibly. Wish I had more parameter maps for the euro.Screenshot_20210430-131956.png
 
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If the CAPE on Tuesday is like a summer day and this thing takes the Euro solution. Hmm. Still looks to be neutral tilted, if you can, can you post the lighting maps for the 12z euro run, just curious wether the 12z is more so on the MCS idea like the 00z euro @Myfrotho704_
 
That some impressive EML on the NAM entering in towards the end of the run
 
I feel like this thread is divided into the alabama guys vs the carolina guys ?
 
Decent lapse rates. They'll be some explosive updrafts and big hailers. where you at @Arcc alabama needs your input haven't heard from you in a while

Gonna try to really dig in tomorrow. Just looked at the 3km NAM and I think Monday will be mostly multicellular mode. Late Tuesday through Early Wednesday still looks very interesting across North central AL, most of east TN and NW GA on the Euro.
 
I'm curious to hear arcc's synopsis for Tuesday. North central alabama has around 300-350 3km SRH helicity and nearing 4000j of SB cape. Looking at 12km nam at around 18z Tuesday. It plops what I'm going to guess are supercells in mississippi and alabama. Environment is not crazy but it doesn't really take a crazy day to overproduce. More so when it's a high cape lower shear enviroment. I'd rather wait and see how the HRRR and 3km NAM handle the precipitation though before I jump in on supercell heaven.Screenshot_20210501-073339.png
 
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