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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

The 3km nam is starting to look bad. For central and north alabama. Shear has increased based on the 12z 3km run.
 
I don't like to see this. And also I wanna note. Tuscaloosa has a 77 degree dew point!!! On Tuesday. It's going to feel like a dang jungle. With those dewpoints don't be surprised if 5000 cape builds in over west alabama. Sheesh. going to make a bold prediction here and say Tuesday has a potential for a moderate risk. I'm not saying I expect it but I think that's the cap for this event. Especially if models start leaning towards the euros windfields. Because moisture is downright wicked. Lapse rates are very high. Diffluence in the jetstream. A very strong EML. My goodness. This has the potential of possibly rivalling the 1st march outbreak that hit in alabama .
 
There also could be a few spin ups today. A decent chunk of area is in a 5% risk area today. And HRRR shows some updraft swaths around this area.Screenshot_20210502-120025.pngScreenshot_20210502-115954.png20210502_120248.jpg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Kinda looks like the first March system but less speed shear in the low/mid levels, decent SRH enough for a maybe decent tornado/better hail threat
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Higher instability though, very interesting event, I wanna bank on the instability and other vertical rising factors to balance it out and increase things. But I don't know. I haven't seen many events like this.
 
Zander98al said:
Higher instability though, very interesting event, I wanna bank on the instability and other vertical rising factors to balance it out and increase things. But I don't know. I haven't seen many events like this.
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I really can’t think of any myself either. Certainly will be very interesting Monday. Dang strong chance at wind damage though. I wonder if we don’t end up with a gust front based propagating MCS. The ARW hints at this.
 
Arcc said:
I really can’t think of any myself either. Certainly will be very interesting Monday. Dang strong chance at wind damage though. I wonder if we don’t end up with a gust front based propagating MCS. The ARW hints at this.
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Gust front on Tuesday?. I saw a boundary based on the 3km nam that initiates convection in central alabama. That maybe the same feature you see on the ARW
 
Arcc said:
I really can’t think of any myself either. Certainly will be very interesting Monday. Dang strong chance at wind damage though. I wonder if we don’t end up with a gust front based propagating MCS. The ARW hints at this.
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The 3km nam gives a gust front from the dying mcs over in arkansas. Which is pretty concerning. Don't need any more wind shear for the enviroment thats already going to be over bamaScreenshot_20210502-122711.pngScreenshot_20210502-122720.pngScreenshot_20210502-122733.png
 
Okay hold the thought. The same line of storms that decays and sends out a gust front also creates one on top of itself and forms storms on it later in mississippi and alabama. So two enchanced areas of wind shear from mesoscale features and we don't even know which weather models is forecasting shear right. That second wave of storms from the 2nd boundary has some crazy pockets of shear though. I'm going to do a full breakdown when the 18z models come in. Unless there's tornado warnings going on in missisppi and alabama at that time.
 
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hey @Arcc which model would you go with for convection mode. lol Long range HRRR has pulse convection a little further southeast in central alabama. and the 3km NAM has more organized/supercellular storms. directly in central alabama and west alabama. looks like models are having a hard time with convection mode.
 
Monday looks interesting in NC I think that we won’t be having anything widespread but I think we could see a situation where we have one of those storms that ripped through NE NC a couple weeks ago that was very photogenic .. I think we could have a similar king tracked supercell if we can get one going it’ll be the only one out there taking up the beautiful ingredients
 
Funnel cloud trying to come down in sumter county tornado warning. Per nws of birmingham!
 
Rotation in sumter tightened up . Today is overproducing lol Screenshot_20210502-162418.png
 
Tornado warning near vicksburg mississippi and rotation near yazoo Screenshot_20210502-165325.png
 
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