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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

Myfrotho704_ said:
Sheesh that cape but wind shear is weak aloft, although in AL there some more View attachment 82832View attachment 82833
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That north and central alabama zone has the best combo of ingredients. I think 300srh helicity is more than enough in a high cape Environment. Especially if other things are aiding in vertical motion. Actually looked at a few case studies and there's been multiple violent tornadoes from high cape low shear. Not saying this will be that cause there's more factors to determine.
 
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
 
Tornadocane said:
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
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May not be a tornado setup, a few tornadoes will cause problems though , but it's a interesting one for north alabama nonetheless.
 
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday morning threat across northern AL.
 
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Arcc said:
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday night threat across northern AL.
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Arcc said:
Euro is rather interesting for areas of AL on Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft and good directional shear would argue for discrete convection/supercells but lower bulk shear values would almost lean in between pulse type convection and organized convection. That along with really high cape would be a day we don’t get many of.

Euro also ramped up the early Wednesday night threat across northern AL.
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Early wensday night or early wensday morning?
 
Tornadocane said:
I'm not impressed by this setup for LA, AL and MS in terms of tornado potential. Messy synoptic pattern leading to messy storm modes, and I'm pretty sure I see VBV on the hodograph.
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Yeah first time this season best tornado setup appears further north and west. Arkansas and west central tennessee west Kentucky
 
Zander98al said:
May not be a tornado setup, a few tornadoes will cause problems though , but it's a interesting one for north alabama nonetheless.
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I'm not discounting a bunch of weak tornadoes. I'm trying to keep expectations in check, or I'm subconsciously being a party-pooper. I'm afraid it might have mostly been the latter intent. I just hate being disappointed by the EURO over-exaggerating optimal conditions.
 
Zander98al said:
What do you use this forecasting tool for? Helicity? Or rotation for updrafts?
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Both. That chart is showing excellent directional shear. That said it is on the weaker side with speed shear. It’s also showing almost due west winds at 500mb which is very favorable for supercells in the SE.
 
Arcc said:
Both. That chart is showing excellent directional shear. That said it is on the weaker side with speed shear. It’s also showing almost due west winds at 500mb which is very favorable for supercells in the SE.
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Wouldn't higher cape make up for the fact of less speed shear though?
 
tennessee storm said:
Yeah first time this season best tornado setup appears further north and west. Arkansas and west central tennessee west Kentucky
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Thank you. I was wondering who else saw it that way. That's where I'd place the best setup, but it's outside the area of decent instability.

Edit: I'm not sure, but I think 250Mb wind charts along with other levels of the atmosphere, illustrates that the storms in N. Alabama would collide due to the veering wind directions and speeds, and VBV at varying levels would limit the intense organization of tornadoes.
 
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Zander98al said:
Wouldn't higher cape make up for the fact of less speed shear though?
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Somewhat, although the lower bulk shear will probably lead to a more pulse type dynamic. That could lead to messier storm mode or it may be enough shear and with the very low forcing keep things discrete. That said, it’s not far from the same SRH that the first outbreak of storms had in early March.

Definitely more interesting than the little I looked at yesterday.
 
I'd place the initial tornado threat to the N and W of the instability axis illustrated on a blend of the models, because there's decent wind shear in that area. The best area for tornado formation looks to be AK and MO, pushing NE into TN and KY. The 500 Mb Jet is sort of splitting off into two directions, and there's a large area of instability that reaches all the way over to IL and IN. That area of convection over LA and AL is fueled by a pretty strong push of warm air advection, and the models have been pretty aggressive with it.
 
Arcc said:
That night time look very late Tuesday to morning Wednesday looks really nasty on the Euro across North AL and southern TN into Georgia.
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I think that piece that goes into Georgia looks like a Confluence Zone that was initiated by pressure falls associated with the 500Mb Vort that's currently moving through LA and MS. It dies out as the Vort moves NE. I might be wrong,
 
That’s quite the difference in EML strength/coverage on the NAM vs the HRRR, from what I’ve seen this year EMLs have been undermodeled F4FC3D4F-2B1F-4D82-9EDE-C1931445E9DF.gif
 
The NAM and the Euro are so far apart in regards to the LLJ late Tuesday/early Wednesday.



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