• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

Looks like Monday will have some bad weatherr. Tuesday I'm not so sure about the euro brings the low through the memphis area. Prime spot for severe weather in alabama. But it doesn't look to be negatively tilted. So I'm on the fence with this one. Any insight anybody? Day 3 has the whole state is Mississippi in a slight as of now
 
Euro just has the severe Look with the placement of the low. But then again I'm not sure. No bowling ball. More of a neutral tilt. Which albeit. Still can produce bad weather but idk ?Screenshot_20210430-065845.pngScreenshot_20210430-065834.png
 
Literally zero CIN
gfs_2021043006_111_35.0--82.0.png
 
On a more serious note that’s for Tuesday thinking there might be a possible MCS for areas near the gulf towards MS/AL/LA as some energy aloft moves thru, GFS/euro have been hinting at it, for areas farther east given the mid level flow being there, some multicells/transient supercell structures are possible with a wind/hail threat given the EML in place but mostly uncapped atmosphere
 
Monday looks interesting. CAPE values are exceeding 4000 in parts of Mississippi on Monday. It'll more and likely be around 5000 in parts if I go off pattern. That north missisppi area has me very intrigued... Unless everything comes through the morning and nothing develops after the morning stuff ?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
On top of what I said the NAM shows mostly cellular convection.. hmm. My gut tells me Monday might me a long day over the missisppi valley into the southeast. Shear isnt off the charts. But I'd take higher cape/ less shear any day over the counterpart.
 
That 12z euro for Tuesday looks a little ominous. Actually has a closed low in south Missouri with a large swath of decent windfields in the southeast. If models shift more to the euro solution it'll be a nasty day possibly. Wish I had more parameter maps for the euro.Screenshot_20210430-131956.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
If the CAPE on Tuesday is like a summer day and this thing takes the Euro solution. Hmm. Still looks to be neutral tilted, if you can, can you post the lighting maps for the 12z euro run, just curious wether the 12z is more so on the MCS idea like the 00z euro @Myfrotho704_
 
I feel like this thread is divided into the alabama guys vs the carolina guys ?
 
Zander98al said:
Decent lapse rates. They'll be some explosive updrafts and big hailers. where you at @Arcc alabama needs your input haven't heard from you in a while
Click to expand...

Gonna try to really dig in tomorrow. Just looked at the 3km NAM and I think Monday will be mostly multicellular mode. Late Tuesday through Early Wednesday still looks very interesting across North central AL, most of east TN and NW GA on the Euro.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 82808
Click to expand...
I'm curious to hear arcc's synopsis for Tuesday. North central alabama has around 300-350 3km SRH helicity and nearing 4000j of SB cape. Looking at 12km nam at around 18z Tuesday. It plops what I'm going to guess are supercells in mississippi and alabama. Environment is not crazy but it doesn't really take a crazy day to overproduce. More so when it's a high cape lower shear enviroment. I'd rather wait and see how the HRRR and 3km NAM handle the precipitation though before I jump in on supercell heaven.Screenshot_20210501-073339.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top