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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Looks like the area is forecast to spawn some supercells soon Screenshot_20220217-102925-628.pngnot sure if these are going to sustain though.
 
Zander98al said:
Just got back to my work plant going to be home by 12:30 to cover the weather. The wind is absolutely roaring right now I've never heard it so much like this
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Fortunately, I’m off work or wouldn’t be posting this much. I’m up to 70/58 at my location with sun peeking out.
 
LukeBarrette said:
The other two to left are absolute junk right now. The rotation you’re seeing with those is wayyyyy up there in the clouds.
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Yeah there's going to be a lot of rotation today with the mesos associated with any discrete/semi discreet cells. I'm not sure how much these can be tightened and rooted to the sfc before the rfd/ofb punches fwd and chokes off the inflow to restart the cycle.
 
These cells need to be watched as they head northeast I think these are the ones the HRRR showed making some decent headway before they becoming a squall line tonight. Screenshot_20220217-132003.png
 
Engeo said:
Storm mode looks very messy
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Yeah even my earlier thoughts might be too aggressive. A couple tornados maybe. 1 could be strong if it can get away from other convection. If not you’re just going to have messy storms that has some rotation but like SD says outflow will cut off the chance for them to make it to the ground. The much more concerning threat would be for damaging straight line winds today. An average severe day.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah even my earlier thoughts might be too aggressive. A couple tornados maybe. 1 could be strong if it can get away from other convection. If not you’re just going to have messy storms that has some rotation but like SD says outflow will cut off the chance for them to make it to the ground. The much more concerning threat would be for damaging straight line winds today. An average severe day.
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Yeah I don't think the wind threat is being stressed enough 60-80kt at 850 with some slight inverted V profiles could easily work down some 60-80mph gusts here
 
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