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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Maybe a faulty thinking but... 500-850 sbcape seems very low for a 65 dewpoint. Something seems wonky about that. Usually they go up. Usually see 500-850 cape in a 55-60 dewpoint range. Saw 1000-1250 sbcape in a January tornado with a 60 dewpoint. That went on to produce a ef3. Just seems very wonky. And yes I know there isn't much sunlight, even so. It still seems low. Watch it slowly go up in future HRRR runs or something. Just doesn't sit right with me seems oddly low.
 
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Zander98al said:
Maybe a faulty thinking but... 500-850 sbcape seems very low for a 65 dewpoint. Something seems wonky about that. Usually they go up. Usually see 500-850 cape in a 55-60 dewpoint range. Saw 1000-1250 sbcape in a January tornado with a 60 dewpoint. That went on to produce a ef3. Just seems very wonky. And yes I know there isn't much sunlight, even so. It still seems low. Watch it slowly go up in future HRRR runs or something. Just doesn't sit right with me seems oddly low.
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It’s that low because there’s warm air aloft at 700mb and cloud cover, a cape killing combo, there’s reasons why in the summer sometimes there’s really high dews but poor SBcape, because there’s mid level warmth, also it’s the cool season
 
deltadog03 said:
Am I the only one really not impressed by this setup? The winds will be there for sure, but looks like WAAAAY too much shear and not enough cape and that is going to shred any updrafts apart quickly.
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Lol your not the only one I think fro and arc feel the same. Ive commented a few times on the storms being torn apart with little instability and very strong wind shear, but it's a winter event any tornado threat bears watching and I felt like this event could boom. I thought we would really need to hit 2000j to sustain anything but who knows. All these storms are going to be super wispy more and likely.
 
Well the 00z HRRR Is now hovering around 1000j of sbcape in MS/AL ?. Kinda lines up with my thinking earlier that it was too little currently. Still think it's a bit low but we will see. going to be a bunch of low topped supercells that's for sure.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Meh, this looks favorable more for a QLCS, highly forced and sheared. low level and mid level lapse rates aren’t really great at all, Hodographs are favorable for cyclic stuff if anything was to develop “out ahead” but the overall thermodynamics aren’t great and wind parameters aloft lean to more of a QLCS threat, nothing eye popping about this and looks like your typical cool season severe wx event. Still far out tho and prone to changes, globals typically decouple the BL to fast as well View attachment 113383View attachment 113384View attachment 113382
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QLCS it is haha
Zander98al said:
Hrrr shows a semi broken line of supercells rolling through bham at 5 o'clock. Here's updraft helicity through the final frame of 00z hrrr.View attachment 113633View attachment 113634
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Trends will be important to watch today. Winds are already starting to crank out of the south, I'f models underestimate moisture advection or cloud breaks it'll spell bad news. You'll more and likely see a enchanced risk tommorow for a chunk of missipi and portions of west Alabama
 
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