BMX LATEST
.
SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0338 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/
Through Friday.
Going to be
active over the next 24 hours or so across the region.
Models are still having some timing issues as well as placement.
This is causing some issues with the overall blending models, thus
creating a fairly puzzling scenario. Synoptically speaking the
pattern is setting up to be a high
shear, descent
CAPE. The
placement of the best
instability versus timing is the biggest
concern. Would also expect a pre-frontal
trough to develop ahead of
the main line. Between the two areas of precipitation there is
typically a zone of
subsidence that could potentially clear our some
of the clouds and allow for additional heating that could in turn
raise the
instability level.
That is the pattern. Taking a look at the current
radar, the pre-
frontal
trough is now developing. Most of the short term models have
this but actually is too far west with the development. This further
east development leads a little more credence into the possible
subsidence zone between the two. Another factor this morning is the
fairly strong warm air
advection moving in. It was 52 at 1 AM and
now it 59 degrees at 330 AM here at the Shelby. This has been
happening for most areas west of I-65 and will begin for areas east
of I-65 within the next few hours. I have added
PoPs in the south
for the pre-frontal
trough. How far north the rain actually makes it
this morning is a little tough to call as models really are missing
the placement. This morning`s
sounding will be very interesting to
see how much of the column has actually warmed or if this is just a
near surface increase. Will issue a
mesoscale update later this
morning.
For the day, would expect the prefrontal
trough to exit before Noon,
thus plenty of time for the southeast to warm up into the upper 70s.
Areas in the far southeast (Eufaula/Troy) will
likely be south of
the prefrontal
trough and warm in the low to perhaps even mid 80s.
The line of showers and storms should begin to work into the west
after 11 AM and then slide east through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. No doubt that there is a severe chance with this line
as there will be plenty of wind aloft to tap into. In fact outside
of the line of storms,
gradient winds will
gust 30 to 45 mph in the
north. There could briefly be higher. The primary threats will be
damaging winds up to 70 mph, tornadoes, and
hail, especially for
locations generally west of Interstate 65. The biggest thing that
could disable the threat is if the
shear is actually too high and
prevents the storms from maturing before being sheared apart. The
overall threat will be decreasing as the line moves east as the
primary
dynamics begin to move northeast away from the area. By 3 AM
most of the storms should be done, with some lingering showers on the
backside.
Friday will be relatively cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low
60s. Skies will clear as the system continues to clear to the east.
