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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

This setup just doesn’t scream a huge deal for areas further east then at least MS, main forcing might outrun the best thermodynamics (NAM shows this well), might be a QLCS that barrels through with MUCAPE and just makes this a not a big deal event, lots of signals showing up on the shorter range/globals for fails with this event. We’ve seen much much scarier looks
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This setup just doesn’t scream a huge deal for areas further east then at least MS, main forcing might outrun the best thermodynamics (NAM shows this well), might be a QLCS that barrels through with MUCAPE and just makes this a not a big deal event, lots of signals showing up on the shorter range/globals for fails with this event. We’ve seen much much scarier looks
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I think the northwest quadrant of Alabama is in play but definetly north Mississippi looks good. Holds off on the qcls till it gets near bham. That eastern extent of the risk area might be adjusted and pulled back some.
 
That dewpoint is about 5° higher in Alabama from the 3km nam to the regular nam. Quicker jump in instability and likely higher instability with it not having to rise as much. Already seeing a negative LI index on the Alabama missippi state line by 6 in the morning according to the 3km nam.namconus_Td2m_us_41.pngnam3km_Td2m_us_60.png
 
Starting to look pretty unimpressive now. Potential wise atleast lol. Still bears watching As we get closer and cams come more in range.
 
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12z models starting to come out. Although the conversation is this isnt a bad setup, I think it really needs watching. Like always if a piece of two falls into place this could be significant for somebody's area. Any severe threat that poses a risk should be watched. And also even if this is not looking like a tornado outbreak. If there's one storm that produces a tornado that hurts somebody or destroys something it makes it a bad weather day. And many significant tornadoes have formed in rather messy days. 98 oak Grove f5 occured on a day without a outbreak I think pretty sure that was one of just a few tornadoes that day, albeit though a high risk was issued that day.

A lot of details that can change things significantly just aren't able to be forecasted until very very close to the event. The ef2 that killed somebody a week and half ago. Changed significantly just 2 days out. Didn't even have severe weather parameters in the area that had the tornado 2 days out. So buckle up, may be some changes. either way it will be very windy and rainy that day.
 
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Cips tornado risk highlights the possibility of a decent tornado risk in that northern MS/AL/TN area still. Screenshot_20220215-071239-793.png
 
Zander98al said:
Bro this looks omnious as heck!
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Just off this simulated radar. It screams outbreak. The updraft Helcity swaths are going to be nuts. I really think if you live in Alabama you should prepare for a decent severe threat just in case, probably won't be that bad, but expect the unexpected sometimes.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
It's crunch time. Today and tomorrow will reveal a lot about what this system is going to do.
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Nam 3km is VERY isolated with convection and a tad slower. But also has the Low top supercells starting to pop up but a bit later. The 3km nam also has cloud breaks. It's going to get very interesting. Sounding over central MS. At 4 o'clock 2022021512_NAMNST_058_33.57,-89.52_severe_ml.png
 
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