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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Nws of bham says there's a few parameters in question, determining those factors the magnitude of the event could go up, but also dampen.

Next few days will be fun in deciphering these models. I think the thing the new bham was talking about was the temps and skinny cape profiles

BUT that north Mississippi/east Arkansas has some nasty parameters. IMO that north Mississippi area is prime targeting for some strong storms. Matches up pretty well with what fro was saying on west Mississippi. But I would include all of north Mississippi as of right now. Spitting out pds tornado soundings. Although gotta wonder if these storms are going to just shear out, from such strong wind shear and lesser imstability.
 
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Also I think we all In here appreciate @Arcc and @Myfrotho704_ analysis. Sadly we don't have a lot of board members from Alabama and Mississippi that post good analysis that are weather smart or book savvy lol. I know some along with other Alabama members but not enough. All I can really do is read the weather models and know a bit of Alabamas weather patterns that shape up. But my opions and perspectives of newbies are still good to the proffesionals as it opens the mind to other possibilities. I like to look at the possibilities of what I'f this happened or did this. Just would like to say. I think we all appreciate the seasoned and well knowledgeable posters here. Don't have many west of the apps. ? Keep posting analysis guys. My take is we still have a possibility of a higher end event if a piece or two falls into place for Alabama.
 
Soundings from Mississippi/Alabama state line. And sounding from Tuscaloosa Birmingham county line. Nasty soundings. When or if the cape rises could be a bad setup. 12km nam shows cellular storms. Almost a classic supercell structure with those hodos. Although they would be low topped if anything with the low instability shown at the current time.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_51 (1).pngnamconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png2022021412_NAM_084_33.25,-87.74_severe_ml.png2022021412_NAM_081_33.61,-89.13_severe_ml.png
 
Those lapse rates are starting to become managble as well. Getting around 6.5 is almost a must at this point. We can't sleep on this event just yet.

Seems like the shear is almost outrunning the cape now that I take a closer look. Lol this might bust. ?
 
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I tell you one thing the northern half of MS & AL and western Tennessee looks pretty nasty. Northern half of MS is pushing almost to 2000 j already dewpoint upper 60s. Will we see our first pds watch of the year for north MS? best paremeters for the event is there.
 
Zander98al said:
I tell you one thing the northern half of MS & AL and western Tennessee looks pretty nasty. Northern half of MS is pushing almost to 2000 j already dewpoint upper 60s. Will we see our first pds watch of the year for north MS? best paremeters for the event is there.
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How are things looking down on the coast? Im sure the worst of the severe will be north of that area. Haven't really had a chance to take a deep dive and look into what the weather is gonna be like down there Thursday and Friday
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
How are things looking down on the coast? Im sure the worst of the severe will be north of that area. Haven't really had a chance to take a deep dive and look into what the weather is gonna be like down there Thursday and Friday
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Not really sure lol, I haven't looked I'll look when the 18z runs come.out. I'm curious as to what updraft Helcity swaths will look like when they start to get in range at 00z models tonight.
 
12km nam shows mostly cellular development until the main gist gets to east Alabama. Begging to think the cap for this event will be a moderate. Really interested in the cams it looks like we will have to wait till tomorrow midday to really see what it will do. It looks like the system has slowed down a bit more.

Also @Darklordsuperstorm looks more like just regular thunderstorms on the gulf atleast near gulf shores and orange beach area. Shear.quickly lifts to the north before really interaction with good instability can occur. Too early to really pin down any risks though.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
It will be interesting to see what the nams amd hrrr show when they get into range.
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21z LR rap run is starting to get in range of the later afternoon night threat on wensday. And the warm sector is way ahead of schedule across the twin states. Dewpoints already at 60 in portions of west central Alabama. We may see a big boom. And the lapse rates are concerning as well. There way higher compared to the same timeframe of the nam. Ive got a bad gut feeling
 
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@#$&. Crap might hit the fan in forecasting and modeling here when the CAMS get in range. I don't like the look of the RAP. The RAP is hunting strongly at the cold bias in the nams forecast for this event. But I'll hold this with a grain of salt at the moment need some confirmation with the other cams. Dewpoint plots by nam and rap Screenshot_20220214-184347-788.pngScreenshot_20220214-184309-192.png
 
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