• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

This is a sounding from Tuscaloosa tommorow around 3. That is one nasty hodograph. Buckle up fellas it may be a wild ride tomorrow. My work is making us come in super early to avoid the bad weather tomorrow ?. ALSO check the speed shear it is PERFECT..... With Wind increasing with height good gosh. .hrrr_2022021618_028_33.44--87.79.png
 
Anyone heard anything about schools and the NWS discussing early school closings tomorrow?
 
What I was saying probably could upgrade risk more. Very well could see a tornado outbreak across Alabama/Tennessee/Mississippi tommorow. Not as far fetched as previously thought.
 
Bama1980 said:
I haven’t heard anything specifically but my district moved picture day that was scheduled for tomorrow. I’m guessing just in case but pictures are usually made first thing in the morning
Click to expand...
They usually start announcing later in the day. I imagine by 5 o'clock news. If I see any listings I'll post them here. If y'all see it y'all can post too
 
Zander98al said:
What I was saying probably could upgrade risk more. Very well could see a tornado outbreak across Alabama/Tennessee/Mississippi tommorow. Not as far fetched as previously thought.
Click to expand...

The key is to not get carried away with calling every bout of severe weather a tornado outbreak. This set up looks like a few tornados could be likely with some of them being possibly stronger than average. Nothing more nothing less as of right now .. tornado outbreak does not seem likely at this point in time but the potential is there that a good storm or two can get cranking and produce a longer track strong tornado.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The key is to not get carried away with calling every bout of severe weather a tornado outbreak. This set up looks like a few tornados could be likely with some of them being possibly stronger than average. Nothing more nothing less as of right now .. tornado outbreak does not seem likely at this point in time but the potential is there that a good storm or two can get cranking and produce a longer track strong tornado.
Click to expand...
I don't call every severe weather threat a tornado outbreak. And all I said was tornado outbreak seemed less far fetch. Your reading in to what I said too much. Also beg to differ we don't know yet how bad this event will be. I think it's still a plasuible idea for a little tornado outbreak. Also everything that I've said about y'all denying the boom potential with this event has came true. A lot of the folks in north Carolina that post in this thread are so sure about the weather textbook wise stuff but don't look at things logistical or possibility wise. Alabama weather follows a pattern like a lot of other places. I put my experience on weather events into my posts.
 
Arcc said:
I’ll tell you one thing, the HRRR is either gonna be a genius or fail tremendously. It is on a complete island regarding surface temps and low level lapse rates tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Nws is seemingly leaning towards the HRRR. I'd trust it. The event a week and half ago that had that tornado it predicted pretty well that setup as it got into 18 hours.
 
Zander98al said:
What I was saying probably could upgrade risk more. Very well could see a tornado outbreak across Alabama/Tennessee/Mississippi tommorow. Not as far fetched as previously thought.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I thought this may be further southeast than my location but those updraft tracks are way too close for comfort.
 
accu35 said:
Zander what’s your thoughts on hail potential. Your doing great in here man, keep ‘‘em coming bro.
Click to expand...
Not much of a big deal on the hail I don't think seems like the usual for a regular severe storm. Don't know a whole lot on forecasting hail lol, I've always just focused on the patterns and some of the forecasting of tornadic storms lol. Think you need a lot of moisture and updrafts to keep it floating back up before it drops and we don't really have a lot of moisture but a lot of updraft lol. Usually see the better hail in spring and summer with the higher instability.

Severe winds are a different monster with this threat. Screaming winds at the low level, need something to put it down on the ground but if it does there will be some pretty strong winds.
 
Decent write-up from Memphis this afternoon:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Gusty southerly winds are bringing mild air into the
Mid-South. Temps have climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s
despite lots of cloud cover. A wind advisory continues in effect
along and west of the MS River where winds are gusting to over 35
mph at times.

Tonight...A cold front will move southeast toward the region as a
potent shortwave moves into the southern plains. Expect surface
winds to perhaps diminish a bit this evening before increasing
again toward midnight as the low level jet strengthens. The
advisory expands to include the entire Mid-South starting at
midnight. Surface low pressure will develop along the cold front
north of the ARKLATEX by 12z Thursday. The surface low will begin
moving NE along the front. Expect showers to develop after
midnight as lift increases across the area. There could be some
hail late tonight with these initial storms since there is some
modest mid-level lapse rates.

Thursday...The surface low will track along the front from western
AR into SE MO around 18z continuing along the OH river during the
afternoon. The associated cold front will sweep across the Mid-
South during the afternoon. The low level jet really intensifies
Thursday morning with 850 mb winds possibly approaching 80 kts at
times. Expect surface winds to gust up to 50 mph across the Delta.
Weakened trees from the ice storm could be vulnerable and at
least some power outages are likely. Extended the wind advisory
until 9 pm to account for a few hours of gusty NW winds behind the
cold front.

The severe threat has increased across the area. 12z HREF does
have a corridor of SBCAPES of 500-750 J/KG developing by Thursday
afternoon. The shear is obviously top shelf with 0-1km helicity
values of at least 300 m2/s2. Hodographs are fairly impressive
with decent veering. 12z CAMs have a variety of solutions but most
are leaning toward broken lines with some semi-discrete cells
which is concerning. If we can realize the instability, combined
with the shear and storm mode then tornadoes become a real threat.
If robust storms can develop then a strong tornado or two would
be possible. There are still questions with the quality of the
warm sector and the amount of morning showers and cloud cover
hampering the instability. An example is the HRW WRF-NSSL which
depicts more morning showers activity and less instability which
would result in much less severe weather. The balance of the 12z
CAMS however, point to a more aggressive solution. Aside from the
tornado threat, damaging winds will be the main threat. Very
strong winds could easily mix down with any storms. Hail is a
secondary threat and contingent on how robust the storms are. Will
will be watching for the amount of morning shower activity and
whether any breaks of sun occur. Right now the best timing looks
to be late morning west to late afternoon/early evening along the
AL border.
 
Arcc said:
Just a warning, the 3km NAM’s sim radar is absolutely horrendous vs reality.
Click to expand...
Which weather models are better? Seems like most of the other cams are similar to the 3km nams idea but less isolated.
 
Begs to question. Temps got higher today than forecasted and now cloud cover is supposed to build in which will trap some.of that heat down preventing Radiational cooling. Temps won't have to go as far to reach forecast projections tommorow. Instability may be under modeled a decent little bit.
 
Arcc said:
Probably the ARW. Looking at wind fields I could definitely see a broken line of cells.
Click to expand...
Im afraid the ARW looks worse than all the other models lol. Those are some healthy supercells. wrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_36.pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_34.png
 
I wish ole JP dice would do a write up or blog on the threat, I miss him at Fox 6 and his angles on the weather. He was always very professional, met him when I was in highschool.
 
Arcc said:
Very weak on UH though due to lack of instability and low lapse rates.
Click to expand...
Go with a mix of the HRRR and the ARW and you have a pretty good threat. More and likely instability is underdone. Probably going to reach near 1000j of sbcape. Those lapse rates though are near the threshold of 6.5 on the HRRR. going to have to check those lapse rates at 00z tonight before I go to bed and see what it looks like.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Hard to punch low level mesocyclones down with that, the one that gets going gets going tho
Click to expand...
Gut says with this type of setup, go with this area to see the highest shot at a damaging tornado.
 

Attachments

  • D1D64DF9-8993-4867-B367-33ED89C66D04.jpeg
    D1D64DF9-8993-4867-B367-33ED89C66D04.jpeg
    276.5 KB · Views: 39
Good grief the temps already in the 70s by 9-10 o'clock in the morning tommorow. Instability pushing north into central Alabama by 10 o'clock. Screenshot_20220216-174827-609.png
HRRRSE_sfc_temp_018 (1).png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
23z hrrr looks nasty. Temps in the 70s almost state wide by 11 o'clock. And sbcape almost covering the entire state. Something to note already 1000j pushing north from south MS.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top