• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

tennessee storm said:
afraid look been buisy last hour with kids lol. did it go further north or something?
Click to expand...
Just a good bit different, significantly less deep of a low and the euro shows the low traveling near the Memphis area northeast. Looks like its going to be Tennessee and south based on the new euro. Im going to throw the 12z euro run. way too different. Need to see another run or two with similarity. Can't look at a lot of other parameters because you have to pay so other than that idk.
 
Zander98al said:
Just a good bit different, significantly less deep of a low and the euro shows the low traveling near the Memphis area northeast. Looks like its going to be Tennessee and south based on the new euro. Im going to throw the 12z euro run. way too different. Need to see another run or two with similarity. Can't look at a lot of other parameters because you have to pay so other than that idk.
Click to expand...
Can’t toss/throw it out considering it’s a pretty clear trend on the EPS/euro to a flatter look, given more northern stream trough interaction 1CCFE3EF-6352-4503-BE19-90B98DB4BE1B.gif61F5111C-A239-48E7-AFE3-F99E6D820AB7.gif
 
southern AL/southern MS imo has the best shot with this sort of setup for some decent severe, mid/northern AL looks more elevated with 4.8-5.5 low level LRs and basically no T/D spreads and warmer air aloft, this typically happens anyways were the main threat is further south then what models show
 
12z euro actually lines up pretty well with the cips severe threat analog guidance, Almost to a tee. If I were a risky person I'd day that the 12z euro may be a bit more dangerous for the deep south than the earlier further north runs a bit more consolidated to south of the Tennessee border though. With this setup youll likely have a pretty dangerous storm or two riding near the warm front. 20220212_133038.png 500wh.us_se.png200wh.us_se.png850wh.us_se.pngScreenshot_20220212-132148-504~2.png
 
Zander98al said:
12z euro actually lines up pretty well with the cips severe threat analog guidance, Almost to a tee. If I were a risky person I'd day that the 12z euro may be a bit more dangerous for the deep south than the earlier further north runs a bit more consolidated to south of the Tennessee border though. With this setup youll likely have a pretty dangerous storm or two riding near the warm front. View attachment 113461 View attachment 113456View attachment 113457View attachment 113458View attachment 113459
Click to expand...
Definetly more riskier with the further south track like the euro shows. Better chance at breaking the cap and better shear further south overlapping the best moisture.
 
Huntsville AFD highlighting the same uncertainty discussed here in this thread.
“The biggest concern at this time with this system is locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding. PW values soar into the 1.5 to 2 inches range on Thursday, which is near observed maximum values for this time of year based on sounding from BMX. Severe storms are also possible. Yes, SPC has placed the area in a Day 6 outlook. However,
confidence is low at this time due to some timing uncertainties in the medium range guidance and whether or not all the parameters can
line up across the forecast area. Shear values are extremely strong, but as is often the case, the instability is lacking. This does not mean we will not see any severe storms, but with a system still 6
days out it is tough to determine specific details.”
 
HSVweather said:
Huntsville AFD highlighting the same uncertainty discussed here in this thread.
“The biggest concern at this time with this system is locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding. PW values soar into the 1.5 to 2 inches range on Thursday, which is near observed maximum values for this time of year based on sounding from BMX. Severe storms are also possible. Yes, SPC has placed the area in a Day 6 outlook. However,
confidence is low at this time due to some timing uncertainties in the medium range guidance and whether or not all the parameters can
line up across the forecast area. Shear values are extremely strong, but as is often the case, the instability is lacking. This does not mean we will not see any severe storms, but with a system still 6
days out it is tough to determine specific details.”
Click to expand...
Flooding will be a big concern. See I agree with Huntsville with that, like the posts above if the low does track further south that actually increases the threat for the deep south because of higher instability meshed with higher shear. That Memphis area if the low tracks near there is prime position for most of Alabama and Mississippi for a decent weather outbreak.
 
18z GFS probably the most impressive GFS run so far. It's not picking up the moisture well but a dangerous look nonethless.
 
Also! The GFS has temperatures reach upper 60s lower 70s. I'f this low reaches into the 980s I'll be impressed.
 
12z nam actually diggs deeper and is a bit more amped compared to the GFS and EURO. Timing looks to be really good on this system. Dew points already around 55 degrees near central Alabama and adjacent areas by 9 o'clock the night before the day of the possible outbreak. Instability is about to shoot up. Also decent cloud breaks on the last frame heading into MS/AL. Your probably going to see a uptick in severe weather chances in the coming days. Especially if the trend of this trough digging more south and east occurs. And the timing of the main activity is near 12 o'clock to 5 in the day.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top