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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Meh, this looks favorable more for a QLCS, highly forced and sheared. low level and mid level lapse rates aren’t really great at all, Hodographs are favorable for cyclic stuff if anything was to develop “out ahead” but the overall thermodynamics aren’t great and wind parameters aloft lean to more of a QLCS threat, nothing eye popping about this and looks like your typical cool season severe wx event. Still far out tho and prone to changes, globals typically decouple the BL to fast as well 46C9AEF4-3D77-48C3-BF6A-25BF7E6B88C8.png88A63E2F-41FB-40EE-B86A-2E168EAD516F.png0F149EB1-92DD-474E-9F1A-06DBBCD23C43.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Meh, this looks favorable more for a QLCS, highly forced and sheared. low level and mid level lapse rates aren’t really great at all, Hodographs are favorable for cyclic stuff if anything was to develop “out ahead” but the overall thermodynamics aren’t great and wind parameters aloft lean to more of a QLCS threat, nothing eye popping about this and looks like your typical cool season severe wx event. Still far out tho and prone to changes, globals typically decouple the BL to fast as well View attachment 113383View attachment 113384View attachment 113382
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Your looking at the now side of models, they will evolve, cape will rise, and lapse rates will probably go up, along with other stuff possibly. I disagree with this being a meh setup. But could it change to that, sure. I just don't see that being the case at this point?. This event has a pretty high ceiling.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Meh, this looks favorable more for a QLCS, highly forced and sheared. low level and mid level lapse rates aren’t really great at all, Hodographs are favorable for cyclic stuff if anything was to develop “out ahead” but the overall thermodynamics aren’t great and wind parameters aloft lean to more of a QLCS threat, nothing eye popping about this and looks like your typical cool season severe wx event. Still far out tho and prone to changes, globals typically decouple the BL to fast as well View attachment 113383View attachment 113384View attachment 113382
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Not so sure bout that
 
Zander98al said:
Your looking at the now side of models, they will evolve, cape will rise, and lapse rates will probably go up, along with other stuff possibly. I disagree with this being a meh setup. But could it change to that, sure. I just don't see that being the case at this point?. This event has a pretty high ceiling.
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Was like huh? Lol
 
As I said, we’ve seen way worse looks, I’m just saying when you having screaming low level low level wind shear but piss poor mid level lapse rates/meager mid level lapse rates (<6.5C esp) storms in the open warm sector typical struggle to get going, unless we trend to steeper mid level lapse rates (which has been the reason why I’ve said the last couple of setups for the SE didn’t look to impressive to me), this setup has that issue. There’s reason why the setup we saw that gave mayfield that destructive tornado did the things it did because mid level lapse rates were pretty steep that setup. It’s a basic but very important thing in a setup AB2C64D9-AF2C-49BC-91D3-51669D70B163.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
As I said, we’ve seen way worse looks, I’m just saying when you having screaming low level low level wind shear but piss poor mid level lapse rates/meager mid level lapse rates (<6.5C esp) storms in the open warm sector typical struggle to get going, unless we trend to steeper mid level lapse rates (which has been the reason why I’ve said the last couple of setups for the SE didn’t look to impressive to me), this setup has that issue. There’s reason why the setup we saw that gave mayfield that destructive tornado did the things it did because mid level lapse rates were pretty steep that setup. It’s a basic but very important thing in a setup View attachment 113385
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If there's a decent EML those should go up. Early January had predicted 6 degree lapse rates but the closer you got it ended up bumping up. Especially the surface to 3km. Which went up to near 8+. The global models have flip flopped already on higher lapse rates as well. Still a long ways to go though.

My whole thing is I'm trying to look at the bigger picture here, and look at history and patterns. Patterns always repeat themselves. Local meteorligists and the nws of bham agree along with spc that this is a decent severe weather setup.
 
Zander98al said:
If there's a decent EML those should go up. Early January had predicted 6 degree lapse rates but the closer you got it ended up bumping up. Especially the surface to 3km. Which went up to near 8+. The global models have flip flopped already on higher lapse rates as well. Still a long ways to go though.

My whole thing is I'm trying to look at the bigger picture here, and look at history and patterns. Patterns always repeat themselves. Local meteorligists and the nws of bham agree along with spc that this is a decent severe weather setup.
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Super Tuesday is a top analog being thrown out
 
Also fro was using the euro earlier which it's lapse rates where not good at all. 12z GFS shows portions of the twin states ms/al being near 7 degrees almost at mid level. Can't see the lapse rates on the euro cause I think you have to pay to use that feature
 
Zander98al said:
Also fro was using the euro earlier which it's lapse rates where not good at all. 12z GFS shows portions of the twin states ms/al being near 7 degrees almost at mid level. Can't see the lapse rates on the euro cause I think you have to pay to use that feature
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it is zander, pay feature shows that which i dont have
 
Messy, lots of elevated convection with lots of 850mb WAA and nil T/D spreads signaling cloud cover/stratiform and elevated thunderstorms with piss poor mid/low level lapse rates, and the area south of the boundary that has 1-2 storms that take advantage of the streamwise vorticity near the boundary and become cyclic. Basically your average cool season setup 568AA2DD-F624-4203-A2A1-3A9542007C55.pngFB8056BF-BCB2-4BE8-A0A3-8971DDB2A744.png36F9EA20-29BA-4C9F-BE5D-BA4DCC56B816.png3B2D43CD-5E78-4320-AFA0-027EA37B325E.png
 
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