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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Nws of bham says there's a few parameters in question, determining those factors the magnitude of the event could go up, but also dampen.

Next few days will be fun in deciphering these models. I think the thing the new bham was talking about was the temps and skinny cape profiles

BUT that north Mississippi/east Arkansas has some nasty parameters. IMO that north Mississippi area is prime targeting for some strong storms. Matches up pretty well with what fro was saying on west Mississippi. But I would include all of north Mississippi as of right now. Spitting out pds tornado soundings. Although gotta wonder if these storms are going to just shear out, from such strong wind shear and lesser imstability.
 
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Also I think we all In here appreciate @Arcc and @Myfrotho704_ analysis. Sadly we don't have a lot of board members from Alabama and Mississippi that post good analysis that are weather smart or book savvy lol. I know some along with other Alabama members but not enough. All I can really do is read the weather models and know a bit of Alabamas weather patterns that shape up. But my opions and perspectives of newbies are still good to the proffesionals as it opens the mind to other possibilities. I like to look at the possibilities of what I'f this happened or did this. Just would like to say. I think we all appreciate the seasoned and well knowledgeable posters here. Don't have many west of the apps. ? Keep posting analysis guys. My take is we still have a possibility of a higher end event if a piece or two falls into place for Alabama.
 
Soundings from Mississippi/Alabama state line. And sounding from Tuscaloosa Birmingham county line. Nasty soundings. When or if the cape rises could be a bad setup. 12km nam shows cellular storms. Almost a classic supercell structure with those hodos. Although they would be low topped if anything with the low instability shown at the current time.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_51 (1).pngnamconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png2022021412_NAM_084_33.25,-87.74_severe_ml.png2022021412_NAM_081_33.61,-89.13_severe_ml.png
 
Those lapse rates are starting to become managble as well. Getting around 6.5 is almost a must at this point. We can't sleep on this event just yet.

Seems like the shear is almost outrunning the cape now that I take a closer look. Lol this might bust. ?
 
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I tell you one thing the northern half of MS & AL and western Tennessee looks pretty nasty. Northern half of MS is pushing almost to 2000 j already dewpoint upper 60s. Will we see our first pds watch of the year for north MS? best paremeters for the event is there.
 
Zander98al said:
I tell you one thing the northern half of MS & AL and western Tennessee looks pretty nasty. Northern half of MS is pushing almost to 2000 j already dewpoint upper 60s. Will we see our first pds watch of the year for north MS? best paremeters for the event is there.
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How are things looking down on the coast? Im sure the worst of the severe will be north of that area. Haven't really had a chance to take a deep dive and look into what the weather is gonna be like down there Thursday and Friday
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
How are things looking down on the coast? Im sure the worst of the severe will be north of that area. Haven't really had a chance to take a deep dive and look into what the weather is gonna be like down there Thursday and Friday
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Not really sure lol, I haven't looked I'll look when the 18z runs come.out. I'm curious as to what updraft Helcity swaths will look like when they start to get in range at 00z models tonight.
 
12km nam shows mostly cellular development until the main gist gets to east Alabama. Begging to think the cap for this event will be a moderate. Really interested in the cams it looks like we will have to wait till tomorrow midday to really see what it will do. It looks like the system has slowed down a bit more.

Also @Darklordsuperstorm looks more like just regular thunderstorms on the gulf atleast near gulf shores and orange beach area. Shear.quickly lifts to the north before really interaction with good instability can occur. Too early to really pin down any risks though.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
It will be interesting to see what the nams amd hrrr show when they get into range.
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21z LR rap run is starting to get in range of the later afternoon night threat on wensday. And the warm sector is way ahead of schedule across the twin states. Dewpoints already at 60 in portions of west central Alabama. We may see a big boom. And the lapse rates are concerning as well. There way higher compared to the same timeframe of the nam. Ive got a bad gut feeling
 
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@#$&. Crap might hit the fan in forecasting and modeling here when the CAMS get in range. I don't like the look of the RAP. The RAP is hunting strongly at the cold bias in the nams forecast for this event. But I'll hold this with a grain of salt at the moment need some confirmation with the other cams. Dewpoint plots by nam and rap Screenshot_20220214-184347-788.pngScreenshot_20220214-184309-192.png
 
This setup just doesn’t scream a huge deal for areas further east then at least MS, main forcing might outrun the best thermodynamics (NAM shows this well), might be a QLCS that barrels through with MUCAPE and just makes this a not a big deal event, lots of signals showing up on the shorter range/globals for fails with this event. We’ve seen much much scarier looks
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This setup just doesn’t scream a huge deal for areas further east then at least MS, main forcing might outrun the best thermodynamics (NAM shows this well), might be a QLCS that barrels through with MUCAPE and just makes this a not a big deal event, lots of signals showing up on the shorter range/globals for fails with this event. We’ve seen much much scarier looks
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I think the northwest quadrant of Alabama is in play but definetly north Mississippi looks good. Holds off on the qcls till it gets near bham. That eastern extent of the risk area might be adjusted and pulled back some.
 
That dewpoint is about 5° higher in Alabama from the 3km nam to the regular nam. Quicker jump in instability and likely higher instability with it not having to rise as much. Already seeing a negative LI index on the Alabama missippi state line by 6 in the morning according to the 3km nam.namconus_Td2m_us_41.pngnam3km_Td2m_us_60.png
 
Starting to look pretty unimpressive now. Potential wise atleast lol. Still bears watching As we get closer and cams come more in range.
 
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12z models starting to come out. Although the conversation is this isnt a bad setup, I think it really needs watching. Like always if a piece of two falls into place this could be significant for somebody's area. Any severe threat that poses a risk should be watched. And also even if this is not looking like a tornado outbreak. If there's one storm that produces a tornado that hurts somebody or destroys something it makes it a bad weather day. And many significant tornadoes have formed in rather messy days. 98 oak Grove f5 occured on a day without a outbreak I think pretty sure that was one of just a few tornadoes that day, albeit though a high risk was issued that day.

A lot of details that can change things significantly just aren't able to be forecasted until very very close to the event. The ef2 that killed somebody a week and half ago. Changed significantly just 2 days out. Didn't even have severe weather parameters in the area that had the tornado 2 days out. So buckle up, may be some changes. either way it will be very windy and rainy that day.
 
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Cips tornado risk highlights the possibility of a decent tornado risk in that northern MS/AL/TN area still. Screenshot_20220215-071239-793.png
 
Zander98al said:
Bro this looks omnious as heck!
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Just off this simulated radar. It screams outbreak. The updraft Helcity swaths are going to be nuts. I really think if you live in Alabama you should prepare for a decent severe threat just in case, probably won't be that bad, but expect the unexpected sometimes.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
It's crunch time. Today and tomorrow will reveal a lot about what this system is going to do.
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Nam 3km is VERY isolated with convection and a tad slower. But also has the Low top supercells starting to pop up but a bit later. The 3km nam also has cloud breaks. It's going to get very interesting. Sounding over central MS. At 4 o'clock 2022021512_NAMNST_058_33.57,-89.52_severe_ml.png
 
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