Wind fields look good there, but the thing that pops out to me is the very warm layer from 850 to 700mbs. Gonna absolutely need sunshine and higher surface temps to overcome that. Otherwise low toped, struggling showers will be the rule for most of the day.
The screaming LLJ might be able to overcome that. But then again may not. Globals show overcast but we won't really know if there will be breaks or not till mesoscale models. I'm betting on the LLJ right now. It's absolutely going to be roaring.
yeah the lower level jet will help clear out things for sure whats being modeled is correct, its going be very strong
I don't think it will clear cloud cover our, more so advect warmer air and increase the temperature to bust the cap. Not 100% sure but. The outbreak over the south on 4/28/14. Was aided by a low level jet. There was nothing in the way of sunlight. People in the south underestimate the effect of a strong LLJ sometimes.
This is actually what I have been seeing consistently popping up, soundings lacking sfc heating and warmer air aloft which would likely create faildrafts due to garbage low level lapse rates. Low level jet itself in these sort of grunge setups is actually responsible for low level cloud cover/showers and grunge due to the warm air aloft it brings. which WAA itself is a forcing agent itself. Sure kinematic factors for something notable but lots of thermodynamic factors for just a run of the mill wintertime severe event
Agree fully with this sentiment lol. I don't think we expect it to be a mega outbreak here or a copy of super Tuesday lol. When I see you saying a classic wintertime setup I consider solely a qcls spin up event. Which is what you usually see. But this event is not exactly like that. WAA can make for a sizeable event. 4/28/14 for example but In this event we're a tad closer to the low pressure this go around. With other factors. And lapse rates have ticked up for the severe weather timeframe in MS/AL. I see this event having a considerable upside, which I'f things go a certain way there may be a few devastating storms.
Don't think so, may actually be expanded a bit.
Memphis nws now saying Wednesday night timeframe now for our area
Still a good ensemble mix on how long is maintains being amped before it ejects and timing differences. Also timmer says we will probably see a tornado outbreak anyways lol. But idk ?. Don't need a perfect setup for a dangerous outbreak here. Any storm that produces a tornado is significant to me because it poses a risk to life and damage. Just a few tornadoes is enough to seem like a tornado outbreak to nearby residents.
Not necessarily... Nocturnal LLJs can actually cause increased boom potential at times because they can actually ramp up significantly... Especially between 1am and 5am...