Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

[HSVweather]

Huntsville afternoon AFD

 

[Zander98al]

Nam 3km looks nasty like the HRRR. Look at all the low topped supercells. Which you can clearly see the classic supercell look on simulated radar as well.

 

[Arcc]

Nam 3km looks nasty like the HRRR. Look at all the low topped supercells. Which you can clearly see the classic supercell look on simulated radar as well. View attachment 113709View attachment 113710

Just a warning, the 3km NAM’s sim radar is absolutely horrendous vs reality.

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 113711Huntsville afternoon AFD

Heres Birmingham AFD.
Interesting write up.
Temps where under forecasted today.

 

[Zander98al]

Just a warning, the 3km NAM’s sim radar is absolutely horrendous vs reality.

Which weather models are better? Seems like most of the other cams are similar to the 3km nams idea but less isolated.

 

[Zander98al]

Begs to question. Temps got higher today than forecasted and now cloud cover is supposed to build in which will trap some.of that heat down preventing Radiational cooling. Temps won't have to go as far to reach forecast projections tommorow. Instability may be under modeled a decent little bit.

 

[Arcc]

Which weather models are better? Seems like most of the other cams are similar to the 3km nams idea but less isolated.

Probably the ARW. Looking at wind fields I could definitely see a broken line of cells.

 

[Zander98al]

Probably the ARW. Looking at wind fields I could definitely see a broken line of cells.

Im afraid the ARW looks worse than all the other models lol. Those are some healthy supercells.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

My home

 

[Zander98al]

I wish ole JP dice would do a write up or blog on the threat, I miss him at Fox 6 and his angles on the weather. He was always very professional, met him when I was in highschool.

 

[Arcc]

Im afraid the ARW looks worse than all the other models lol. Those are some healthy supercells. View attachment 113713View attachment 113714

Very weak on UH though due to lack of instability and low lapse rates.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very weak on UH though due to lack of instability and low lapse rates.

Yep. Hard to punch low level mesocyclones down with that, the one that gets going gets going tho

 

[Zander98al]

Very weak on UH though due to lack of instability and low lapse rates.

Go with a mix of the HRRR and the ARW and you have a pretty good threat. More and likely instability is underdone. Probably going to reach near 1000j of sbcape. Those lapse rates though are near the threshold of 6.5 on the HRRR. going to have to check those lapse rates at 00z tonight before I go to bed and see what it looks like.

 

[Arcc]

Yep. Hard to punch low level mesocyclones down with that, the one that gets going gets going tho

Gut says with this type of setup, go with this area to see the highest shot at a damaging tornado.

 

[WeatherGirl205]

Anyone heard anything about schools and the NWS discussing early school closings tomorrow?

Jefferson County is already on an e-learning day tomorrow, so I lucked out for my kids on that.

 

[NoSnowATL]

My homeView attachment 113715

By home ish

 

[Zander98al]

Wow

 

[Zander98al]

Good grief the temps already in the 70s by 9-10 o'clock in the morning tommorow. Instability pushing north into central Alabama by 10 o'clock.

 

[Zander98al]

 

[Zander98al]

23z hrrr looks nasty. Temps in the 70s almost state wide by 11 o'clock. And sbcape almost covering the entire state. Something to note already 1000j pushing north from south MS.