accu35
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This looks little more bullish before fizzling?
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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Parameters almost always go up getting closer to the event. I still feel like models are underestimating Thermodynamics as well.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Becoming more confident in a possible moderate at the state line.
My gut feeling tells me it's going to be a bit more isolated than the HRRR shows. A mix between the WRF- ARW and the HRRR.
NWMSGuy
Member
I'm hoping we see more of a messier storm mode around Memphis and northwest MS. As folks have mentioned east MS and west AL look to be the hot spot.
HSVweather
Member
I think it did go up slightly in MS and west AL with the same trend as 12Z.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
18z sped the system up a bit. Where peak heating will affect eastern MS into west Alabama/ central Alabama most.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
This is a sounding from Tuscaloosa tommorow around 3. That is one nasty hodograph. Buckle up fellas it may be a wild ride tomorrow. My work is making us come in super early to avoid the bad weather tomorrow ?. ALSO check the speed shear it is PERFECT..... With Wind increasing with height good gosh. .
Z
Zander98al
Guest
What I was saying probably could upgrade risk more. Very well could see a tornado outbreak across Alabama/Tennessee/Mississippi tommorow. Not as far fetched as previously thought.
I haven’t heard anything specifically but my district moved picture day that was scheduled for tomorrow. I’m guessing just in case but pictures are usually made first thing in the morning
Z
Zander98al
Guest
They usually start announcing later in the day. I imagine by 5 o'clock news. If I see any listings I'll post them here. If y'all see it y'all can post too
The key is to not get carried away with calling every bout of severe weather a tornado outbreak. This set up looks like a few tornados could be likely with some of them being possibly stronger than average. Nothing more nothing less as of right now .. tornado outbreak does not seem likely at this point in time but the potential is there that a good storm or two can get cranking and produce a longer track strong tornado.
marlin.hogue1
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I think the non-thunderstorm winds will be cranking enough to cause power outages. That would cause schools to cancel.
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I’ll tell you one thing, the HRRR is either gonna be a genius or fail tremendously. It is on a complete island regarding surface temps and low level lapse rates tomorrow.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I don't call every severe weather threat a tornado outbreak. And all I said was tornado outbreak seemed less far fetch. Your reading in to what I said too much. Also beg to differ we don't know yet how bad this event will be. I think it's still a plasuible idea for a little tornado outbreak. Also everything that I've said about y'all denying the boom potential with this event has came true. A lot of the folks in north Carolina that post in this thread are so sure about the weather textbook wise stuff but don't look at things logistical or possibility wise. Alabama weather follows a pattern like a lot of other places. I put my experience on weather events into my posts.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Nws is seemingly leaning towards the HRRR. I'd trust it. The event a week and half ago that had that tornado it predicted pretty well that setup as it got into 18 hours.
NWMSGuy
Member
Honestly, I thought this may be further southeast than my location but those updraft tracks are way too close for comfort.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Not much of a big deal on the hail I don't think seems like the usual for a regular severe storm. Don't know a whole lot on forecasting hail lol, I've always just focused on the patterns and some of the forecasting of tornadic storms lol. Think you need a lot of moisture and updrafts to keep it floating back up before it drops and we don't really have a lot of moisture but a lot of updraft lol. Usually see the better hail in spring and summer with the higher instability.
Severe winds are a different monster with this threat. Screaming winds at the low level, need something to put it down on the ground but if it does there will be some pretty strong winds.
NWMSGuy
Member
Decent write-up from Memphis this afternoon:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Gusty southerly winds are bringing mild air into the
Mid-South. Temps have climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s
despite lots of cloud cover. A wind advisory continues in effect
along and west of the MS River where winds are gusting to over 35
mph at times.
Tonight...A cold front will move southeast toward the region as a
potent shortwave moves into the southern plains. Expect surface
winds to perhaps diminish a bit this evening before increasing
again toward midnight as the low level jet strengthens. The
advisory expands to include the entire Mid-South starting at
midnight. Surface low pressure will develop along the cold front
north of the ARKLATEX by 12z Thursday. The surface low will begin
moving NE along the front. Expect showers to develop after
midnight as lift increases across the area. There could be some
hail late tonight with these initial storms since there is some
modest mid-level lapse rates.
Thursday...The surface low will track along the front from western
AR into SE MO around 18z continuing along the OH river during the
afternoon. The associated cold front will sweep across the Mid-
South during the afternoon. The low level jet really intensifies
Thursday morning with 850 mb winds possibly approaching 80 kts at
times. Expect surface winds to gust up to 50 mph across the Delta.
Weakened trees from the ice storm could be vulnerable and at
least some power outages are likely. Extended the wind advisory
until 9 pm to account for a few hours of gusty NW winds behind the
cold front.
The severe threat has increased across the area. 12z HREF does
have a corridor of SBCAPES of 500-750 J/KG developing by Thursday
afternoon. The shear is obviously top shelf with 0-1km helicity
values of at least 300 m2/s2. Hodographs are fairly impressive
with decent veering. 12z CAMs have a variety of solutions but most
are leaning toward broken lines with some semi-discrete cells
which is concerning. If we can realize the instability, combined
with the shear and storm mode then tornadoes become a real threat.
If robust storms can develop then a strong tornado or two would
be possible. There are still questions with the quality of the
warm sector and the amount of morning showers and cloud cover
hampering the instability. An example is the HRW WRF-NSSL which
depicts more morning showers activity and less instability which
would result in much less severe weather. The balance of the 12z
CAMS however, point to a more aggressive solution. Aside from the
tornado threat, damaging winds will be the main threat. Very
strong winds could easily mix down with any storms. Hail is a
secondary threat and contingent on how robust the storms are. Will
will be watching for the amount of morning shower activity and
whether any breaks of sun occur. Right now the best timing looks
to be late morning west to late afternoon/early evening along the
AL border.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Gusty southerly winds are bringing mild air into the
Mid-South. Temps have climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s
despite lots of cloud cover. A wind advisory continues in effect
along and west of the MS River where winds are gusting to over 35
mph at times.
Tonight...A cold front will move southeast toward the region as a
potent shortwave moves into the southern plains. Expect surface
winds to perhaps diminish a bit this evening before increasing
again toward midnight as the low level jet strengthens. The
advisory expands to include the entire Mid-South starting at
midnight. Surface low pressure will develop along the cold front
north of the ARKLATEX by 12z Thursday. The surface low will begin
moving NE along the front. Expect showers to develop after
midnight as lift increases across the area. There could be some
hail late tonight with these initial storms since there is some
modest mid-level lapse rates.
Thursday...The surface low will track along the front from western
AR into SE MO around 18z continuing along the OH river during the
afternoon. The associated cold front will sweep across the Mid-
South during the afternoon. The low level jet really intensifies
Thursday morning with 850 mb winds possibly approaching 80 kts at
times. Expect surface winds to gust up to 50 mph across the Delta.
Weakened trees from the ice storm could be vulnerable and at
least some power outages are likely. Extended the wind advisory
until 9 pm to account for a few hours of gusty NW winds behind the
cold front.
The severe threat has increased across the area. 12z HREF does
have a corridor of SBCAPES of 500-750 J/KG developing by Thursday
afternoon. The shear is obviously top shelf with 0-1km helicity
values of at least 300 m2/s2. Hodographs are fairly impressive
with decent veering. 12z CAMs have a variety of solutions but most
are leaning toward broken lines with some semi-discrete cells
which is concerning. If we can realize the instability, combined
with the shear and storm mode then tornadoes become a real threat.
If robust storms can develop then a strong tornado or two would
be possible. There are still questions with the quality of the
warm sector and the amount of morning showers and cloud cover
hampering the instability. An example is the HRW WRF-NSSL which
depicts more morning showers activity and less instability which
would result in much less severe weather. The balance of the 12z
CAMS however, point to a more aggressive solution. Aside from the
tornado threat, damaging winds will be the main threat. Very
strong winds could easily mix down with any storms. Hail is a
secondary threat and contingent on how robust the storms are. Will
will be watching for the amount of morning shower activity and
whether any breaks of sun occur. Right now the best timing looks
to be late morning west to late afternoon/early evening along the
AL border.