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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

The streaks in the qpf highlight the risk of supercells embedded or broken along a line or maybe ahead. 20220216_075447.jpg
 
Geez Louis. 78 degrees in west alabama. Also sbcape has bumped up looks like hovering at 1000j in that west Alabama area. I'll take that. Also cloud breaks are starting to be shown in west Alabama during the day. Something to keep a eye on. Probably going to see that sbcape bump up more if my thinking is right.
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Would not be surprised for a enchanced risk in west Alabama and east Mississipi.
 
Something that should be watched also is pressure drop areas. With the low deeping, this can often back winds more. Pretty sure this is what led to the deadly ef4 that hit Lee county Alabama in 2019. And the ensuing tornado outbreak. Just something to keep a eye on. Speaking out loud.
 
Okay guys I like having the clown faces and all that stuff too. But continually just coming in here and spamming posts with them. Because you may not agree with something gets rather old. I'm putting my opinion out here on this setup. Yes probably isn't the most accurate always but doesn't mean it needs a clown or weinee for every post.
 
Here's simulated radar by all of the CAMs alot of them show isolated cells. I'd probably put a mix on the HRRR and the other runs and settle on it. wrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_33 (1).pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_35.pngfv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_33.pngfv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_35.pngwrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_33.pngwrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_35.pngnam3km_ref_frzn_seus_37.pngnam3km_ref_frzn_seus_34.pnghrrr_ref_frzn_seus_33.pnghrrr_ref_frzn_seus_35.png
 
Zander98al said:
Okay guys I like having the clown faces and all that stuff too. But continually just coming in here and spamming posts with them. Because you may not agree with something gets rather old. I'm putting my opinion out here on this setup. Yes probably isn't the most accurate always but doesn't mean it needs a clown or weinee for every post.
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I'll agree with this, if someone has an opposing well reasoned opinion than offer it, if this threat doesn't apply to your area or you have no analysis to provide then why come in here and troll it?
 
metwannabe said:
I'll agree with this, if someone has an opposing well reasoned opinion than offer it, if this threat doesn't apply to your area or you have no analysis to provide then why come in here and troll it?
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I'd like to throw out something as well with your comment. In the past 10 years my neighborhood has been hit by two ef3s in similar setups as this one higher shear low cape environments both l in late January Each event somebody was killed one down the street and another in a adjacent city. any tornado threat especially a ever changing winter setup requires all eyes.I can see where people's opinions can differ on severity of this system. But it only takes one hitting near you to make it a very bad day for you. So this is why I cover these storms like I do. Because they change on the drop of a pen sometimes; just how weather is. You can't be complacent on tornado risks.
 
Thinking a slight/maybe a enhanced is good for this setup tomorrow. QLCS the main threat especially in AL, with areas further west having a better chance for tors, which globals have been hinting at for a while would be the best area. the forcing becomes linear further east as the shortwave is hung back, and a 700mb warm nose (Which makes this setup a bit different vs classic HSLC) gets established due to decreased height falls further east. pretty average cool season setup I’d say
 
Big tornado upgrade! I was on to something I guess ?



Farther south, greater low-level theta-e advection suggests that the
boundary layer will become at least neutral, and therefore greater
certainty of surface- or near-surface-based storms exists -- both
near the advancing cold front, and also with associated warm
advection-driven bands of convection in the free warm sector. As
noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb
winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at
70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and
attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly
locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to
enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee
Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours.


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