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Zander98al
Guest
? this model speeds up the system a bit
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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
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Zander98al
Guest
Nice sickle hodo at the Alabama Mississippi state line on the 
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Zander98al
Guest
15z rap has lapse rates pretty high
this system has speeded up a bit as well it looks like
this system has speeded up a bit as well it looks like
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Zander98al
Guest
Just my opinion here. But I think we may actually see a substantial risk for a few longer track supercells, maybe tornadoes. Some of the limiting factors look like there are starting to turn around. There may even be breaks in the clouds during the day as well. Even if it is just around 1000-1500j it's still a good bit for a winter event. Although with the amount of shear you'd probably rather see 3000+. Temps look like they could reach near 70 and dewpoint not far behind. Hm. Really itching at the bit to see 18z convection models. That north Alabama / north Mississippi looks to be pretty volatile. I'd like to do a more detailed look later when I get home. But all hands should be on deck for a decent threat. I really think this could boom.
RollTide18
Member
During the Easter 2020 event, the power actually went out hours before the storms even hit, it did come back on before the storms hit before going out again though.
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Zander98al
Guest
These hodograph are flipping nuts. This is at 12 o'clock tommorow. Look at the perfect sickles in Mississippi. That is dangerous.
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Zander98al
Guest
That is 700mb to 500mb, the issue is the surface to 700mb.
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Zander98al
Guest
? I've always seen comments on the 700mb- 500mb mattering. I think from the 15z rap it was around 6.0 for surface up. which isn't great but isn't the worst. 18z hrrr coming out along with other models. Peek at what those show.
pretty ugly area of warmth aloft esp at 700mb, with limited low level instability
The GFS has low level lapse rates of 6.2-6.3 in some areas but cape and 0-3km cape is very low.
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Zander98al
Guest
Wouldn't temps getting around in the high 60s low 70s be able to overcome that. Yeah that limited low level cape will limit tornado formation a good bit. Although I'd wait until HRRR came into range. I'd trust it most on forecasting the low level instability. Also peak those lapse rates fro above the surface to 3km. Theyve come up a good bit. ?
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Zander98al
Guest
I'm going to wait until the HRRR gets in range. 18z comes out, see what it says on the low level instability and low level lapse rates. 18z should start rolling out here soon. I'f we get breaks in the clouds and sunshine. Those low level lapse rates are going to go up.
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
18z model only goes out to 12 o'clock Thursday with temps in the low 70s already. Very well may reach 75 in portions of Alabama and upper 60s dewpoint possibly. With a wide warm sector.
Have to remember that short range models in the longer range (HRRR/RAP) for ex aren't great at all, now that at hr 24 is much more interesting
HSVweather
Member
Huntsville afternoon AFD on this event
A risk for strong to severe storms continues, especially for our
more western areas. The main threats appear to be damaging winds.
Very high shear preceding the system, and somewhat higher model
produced instability keeps a tornado threat in as well. Am thinking
that a Quasi-Linear Convective System feature/squall line will bring
a higher severe threat. Models were trending more to a latter squall
line/frontal passage occurring more on Thu evening. High temperatures
on Thu, especially if more sun breaks through could rise to around 70
in a few spots (which could enhance the severe risk). Winds ahead of
the system especially Wed night into Thu evening could get breezy to
windy, with gusts over 35 mph possible Thu/Thu night. A Wind Advisory
may be needed if this trend continues.
A risk for strong to severe storms continues, especially for our
more western areas. The main threats appear to be damaging winds.
Very high shear preceding the system, and somewhat higher model
produced instability keeps a tornado threat in as well. Am thinking
that a Quasi-Linear Convective System feature/squall line will bring
a higher severe threat. Models were trending more to a latter squall
line/frontal passage occurring more on Thu evening. High temperatures
on Thu, especially if more sun breaks through could rise to around 70
in a few spots (which could enhance the severe risk). Winds ahead of
the system especially Wed night into Thu evening could get breezy to
windy, with gusts over 35 mph possible Thu/Thu night. A Wind Advisory
may be needed if this trend continues.