Overlap of everything looks far better in western miss/LA/AR, system loses a favorable tilt further east and everything becomes unraveled For areas more east
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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
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Zander98al
Guest
A lot of those things will be determined by mesoscale models/features. Your overlooking the broad picture setup wise. The GFS is catching up to the increase in thermodynamics out west on the day 5 period like I mentioned earlier. Thermodynamics will rise as we get closer.
This synoptic scale pattern isn’t really as favorable for AL/eastern MS and just areas further east in general, it’s not just about CAPE and wind shear
Notice this is favorable for the western areas (LA/AR)
Then the main S/W washes out which would mean unraveling forcing/wind shear and wind parameters becoming QLCS heavy ahead of the front in AL/eastern miss/GA, I’m looking at the whole picture here
Of course this could change if the secondary bowling ball trends weaker which allows a stronger main southern stream wave
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Zander98al
Guest
Still don't agree with your idea lol l, you'd have to convince me more. Shear and instability arent the only thing to weather but it's apart of the three main ingredients for sever weather shear/lift/instability. We've had many tornado outbreaks with lows being as far away as Nebraska. Still think there's considerable threat for a possible tornado outbreak.
And most of the south's tornado outbreaks are on days of messy convective modes
BTW fro. No disrespect in my talking here, I generally go off of patterns and past events history which are just important as book knowledge imo. I see where your coming from. I'm just looking ahead to likely changes things I see possibly happening. ?
And most of the south's tornado outbreaks are on days of messy convective modes
BTW fro. No disrespect in my talking here, I generally go off of patterns and past events history which are just important as book knowledge imo. I see where your coming from. I'm just looking ahead to likely changes things I see possibly happening. ?
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tennessee storm
Member
Way way to early look at messy storm mode this far out … which doubt with large warm sector may be bit messy around the frontal boundary north
Honestly due to a big event that happened this week, it’s been nothing but a blur and I have barely looked at anything.
Here’s a summary. Looks like a classic/seasonable cool season event, nothing out the ordinary and nothing to crazy per models, but something that can still cause issues as they have in the past
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
NWMSGuy
Member
Nice write-up from Memphis. Sounds like they believe instability levels will change as the event draws closer.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight bringing
a chance for a few showers. It should be too warm and moisture
starved for snow so have removed the mention of snow this
issuance. The confidence is low so have elected to remove it.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Saturday we will struggle
to get to 40 degrees for a lot of the area. Cold temperatures will
be the main story this weekend, as lows drop back into the low to
mid 20s for Sunday morning. High pressure starts over the area
early next week as temperatures will modify back into the 50s.
Southwest flow will kick in by mid week as a warmer and more moist
air filters into the Mid South. Guidance still points to a fairly
strong system impacting the forecast area on Thursday. So much so
that the Storm Prediction Center highlights the entire area in a
15 percent risk for severe weather for day 7. This is the
equivalent of a slight risk. This has definitely peaked interest.
We will have to monitor this situation for the next several days
as details become more clear. As of now the main limiting factor
looks to be instability, but this will absolutely change over the
next several days.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight bringing
a chance for a few showers. It should be too warm and moisture
starved for snow so have removed the mention of snow this
issuance. The confidence is low so have elected to remove it.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Saturday we will struggle
to get to 40 degrees for a lot of the area. Cold temperatures will
be the main story this weekend, as lows drop back into the low to
mid 20s for Sunday morning. High pressure starts over the area
early next week as temperatures will modify back into the 50s.
Southwest flow will kick in by mid week as a warmer and more moist
air filters into the Mid South. Guidance still points to a fairly
strong system impacting the forecast area on Thursday. So much so
that the Storm Prediction Center highlights the entire area in a
15 percent risk for severe weather for day 7. This is the
equivalent of a slight risk. This has definitely peaked interest.
We will have to monitor this situation for the next several days
as details become more clear. As of now the main limiting factor
looks to be instability, but this will absolutely change over the
next several days.
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Zander98al
Guest
They will increase, you'll have a decent bit of instability into Kentucky and probably north Arkansas depending how far south the low travels. I'm begging to think there may be convection that blows up a good bit ahead of the main bunch, that is reliant on how fast the warm sector sets up really. 18z GFS moved north with more instability and higher instability again. Continuing the trend I mentioned that will occur, already pushing near 1000j of cape in splotches just below of Birmingham.
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Zander98al
Guest
As you can see each model run it's pushing north with more, you'll more and likely see splotches of 2000+ by go time.
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Zander98al
Guest
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama have a lot of upside in terms of instability potential. My hunch is Thermodynamics are being under modeled a decent bit. Just off of face value it's evident. Really cloud cover won't be crucial to instability, as a LLJ pumps moisture up into the deep south. Although sunlight will more and likely help instability and the lapse rates, so any cloud breaks would be pretty bad for the overall setup.
Cloud cover is very very important in regards to severe weather. Unless dynamics are perfect (which they aren’t) the more sun the better (if you like severe weather)
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Zander98al
Guest
A strong LLJ is more than enough a lot of times. 4/28/14 and 1/28/12 for example. But sunshine would be worse. Lapse rates are the biggest question as of now. Many times a LLJ can usher in unstable air very quickly. With this event you got a screaming LLJ in place for a day or two. Imstability is likely underdone a good bit.
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Zander98al
Guest
Risk area adjusted eastward. Continued trend with the GFS on more moisture pulling northward. Also a bit better wind profiles for discreet convection.
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Zander98al
Guest
Taking a peak at a sounding over central Mississippi near the state line of Alabama. Starting to see a EML be showcased. 
even more so of a EML in south Mississippi. Almost a loaded gun, just the instability hasn't caught up yet and the lapse rates aren't the best which it will more and likely go up a bit as we get closer. 
even more so of a EML in south Mississippi. Almost a loaded gun, just the instability hasn't caught up yet and the lapse rates aren't the best which it will more and likely go up a bit as we get closer.
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Had a feeling this would happen they usually start conservative and fine tune each day leading up to the event